2023 DoorDash 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday June 10th, 2023. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Sonoma Raceway
TV: FS1

Last week I spent a good portion of our Xfinity Series preview discussing the lack of “elite” road course talents in the Xfinity Series for the first time in several years. Following a wild race at Portland International Raceway, Justin Allgaier emerged as the winner of the Pacific Office Automate 147 to strengthen his argument as the best road course talent in the Xfinity Series. This week that argument may be overshadowed as the Xfinity Series visits Sonoma Raceway for the first time in series history. The allure of the inaugural Xfinity Series debut at Sonoma has produced interests from several drivers. As a result, Saturday’s DoorDash 250 will feature an all-star list of road course talents who all believe they are the best road course talent in the Xfinity Series!

Among the names that will join the Xfinity Series regulars this week include the likes of Ross Chastain, Aric Almirola, Kyle Larson, AJ Allmendinger, Ty Gibbs, and Daniel Suarez among others. Needless to say, this entry list is absolutely stacked. I mean we have the best driver in the sport in Kyle Larson, the biggest controversy name in the sport in Ross Chastain, last year’s Cup Series winner at Sonoma in Daniel Suarez, former Xfinity Series champion and road course ace Ty Gibbs, and perhaps the best road course driver in NASCAR in AJ Allmendinger. So if you have not caught on by now, I am excited to watch this race unfold because there are so many prestigious names that will be competing in Saturday’s DoorDash 250.

Aside from my excitement at the competition this week, it is my job, from a handicapping perspective, to find the best betting value. To do so, I think we will have to analyze a little bit of everything this week. All of the drivers that I mentioned from the Cup Series, which ones have the best potential based on their equipment and their historical performances at Sonoma. Are there any Xfinity Series regulars that could upset the Cup Series drivers for the outright win or potentially stand out as betting value against other Cup Series drivers that may not meet expectations? Those are the types of things we will be looking for from a handicapping perspective and finding angles that run parallel with equipment/performance.

Friday Practice Observations

In Friday’s practice, Kyle Larson posted the fastest lap with an average speed of 90.392mph. Larson was a full second faster than nearest competitors Sheldon Creed and AJ Allmendinger on the single lap charts. Larson was equally strong in race trim, easily covering the field in the best averages of the session as well. Surprisingly, Larson was considerably faster than AJ Allmendinger who was receiving similar betting odds going into the weekend as the race’s clear outright favorites. From practice, Larson has clearly emerged as the driver to beat.

Behind Larson and Allmendinger, Creed was also impressive in practice as I expected. I would also give positive shout outs to both Cole Custer and Aric Almirola. Personally, I was surprised to see Almirola show so much speed despite the equipment concern. Meanwhile, Custer displayed solid speed last week at Portland and perhaps is one of the better road course talents in the field for the Xfinity Series regulars. Meanwhile, Ty Gibbs, Ross Chastain, and Daniel Suarez were not nearly as fast as most would have expected based on practice speeds alone.

Betting Targets

Regardless of practice observations, I would still put my chips in favor of AJ Allmendinger as the driver to beat along with Kyle Larson. I think Allmendinger is in one of the better cars this season for the #10 at Kaulig Racing. Not to mention, I believe Allmendinger and Larson’s road course skills are 2nd to none. With that being said, Larson should get the nod for the outright top spot based on very impressive practice speeds. I would also put Ty Gibbs in the bucket of potential winners based on road course talent. However, the argument against Gibbs for this week is the fact he does not have any Sonoma experience on his resume. Meanwhile, I just don’t believe guys like Suarez, Ty Dillon, Almirola, or Chastain have the equipment to contend for the victory this Saturday. In fact all of those drivers are driving for inferior race teams likely for the sole reason to prepare for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 in the Cup Series.

We will be looking to fade some of those Cup Series names that I mentioned above. My two biggest candidates to fade will be both Dillon and Almirola based on their equipment and skill sets. Meanwhile, drivers that I believe will provide value in match-ups include the likes of Sheldon Creed and John Hunter Nemechek. Despite both drivers wrecking each other repeatedly at Portland, Creed and Nemechek are among the better road course talents in the Xfinity Series. Personally, I believe Creed is the best road course technician and Nemechek has the best car/team with the #20. Both drivers have prior Sonoma experience and I believe they are going to outrun the majority of the competition again on Saturday.

Additional names for deep fantasy or H2H match-up considerations include drivers like Alex Labbe, Brett Moffitt, and Connor Mosack.

2023 Draftkings DoorDash 250 Optimal Lineup

2023 DoorDash 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Larson -140 (2 units)
Sheldon Creed +1600 (.5 unit)
Cole Custer +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Sam Mayer -145 over Josh Berry (2 units)
Cole Custer +300 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)
Aric Almirola +700 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)