2023 Dead on Tools 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday October 28th, 2023. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Martinsville Speedway
TV: NBC
On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series steps into the spotlight for the running of the Dead on Tools 250 at Martinsville Speedway. This week’s races at Martinsville between both the Xfinity and Cup Series will officially decide the drivers that will compete for a championship next week at Phoenix. In Xfinity Series competition, Sam Mayer is the only driver that has already secured his championship bid courtesy of last week’s win at Homestead. Therefore, 3 additional spots will be on the line when the green flag waves for the Dead on Tools 250!
Back in April, John Hunter Nemechek won the Call 811 Before You Dig 250 at Martinsville Speedway in the Xfinity Series first appearance of the season at the half-mile paperclip. Nemechek dominated the event by leading 198 of 250 laps en route to victory. Rookie Sammy Smith finished in the runner-up position back in the spring race. Earlier today, Smith earned the first pole of his young career by setting the fastest time in qualifying with a lap of 94.458mph. Smith edged out Justin Allgaier for the top spot along with a big group of the playoff drivers which qualified in 7 of the top 9 positions. With points separating the majority of the playoff drivers by a razor thin margin, we should expect some tough short-track racing at the front of the field.
From a betting perspective, I always approach Martinsville with extreme caution. Due to the track size, one mistake can be detrimental towards a drivers’ chance to win. If mistakes happen under green flag conditions, drivers will likely lose multiple laps. If it happens on pit road or under yellow, drivers could be so far back in the pack that it could take them out of contention. Add the fact that track position is sometimes more important than having the fastest car and you may see why this venue can be tricky for bettors. However, like other short tracks, we will focus heavily on H2H match-ups this week as we attempt to put together another profitable weekend.
Practice Observations
I thought Saturday’s practice was the first session in several weeks that was not totally biased from track conditions and actually may give us pretty straight forward observations. In practice, John Hunter Nemechek appeared to pick off where he left in April. Nemechek was 2nd fastest overall and extremely impressive in the 15-20 lap average categories which is the closest resemblance towards long-run speed. Surprisingly, Blaine Perkins in the #02 was also really fast in all categories. Perkins actually posted the fastest lap of the entire session with a speed of 92.461mph. I’m not really sure what to think of Perkins because he qualified all the way back in the 31st position but the lap times were impressive in practice nevertheless.
In addition to Nemechek, I thought Justin Allgaier likely had the best long-run speed. I watched lap times very closely and Allgaier just did not have the fall-off like many of the other front-runners. If we get long-runs on Saturday, it will likely play in favor of the #7 team. Other names that were also notably fast in practice included Sammy Smith, Sam Mayer, and perhaps Austin Hill was right outside of that “elite” speed range. Further back in the pack, I was impressed with Brett Moffitt yet again. I have bet on Moffitt for the last several weeks because it appears the #25 team has found some speed and all early indicators are showing that narrative remains true this week at Martinsville. Perhaps even deeper mentions include guys like Kaz Grala and Josh Bilicki who appeared to be much faster than anyone would have expected going into the weekend from the bottom-tier selection of drivers. Perhaps both guys are worth fantasy consideration for tomorrow’s Dead on Tools 250!
Betting Targets
Like I said above, I believe bettors have to be very careful to avoid overextending units (risks) towards futures (win) bets at Martinsville. Not only can the most simple mistakes ruin a driver’s chances of winning but also we rarely find a lot of betting “value” because the favorites are usually the ones that end up in victory lane. With that being said, I will take a low-risk approach towards futures bets for Saturday’s Dead on Tools 250. While John Hunter Nemechek deserves to be the favorite, I am going to pivot to Justin Allgaier who has better odds and may have the only speed equal to JHN on the long-run.
For other options for the outright win, it would not surprise me to see an intermediate type driver win this race especially if they can get track position late. I like Sam Mayer for the fact that he is already locked into the championship and does not have to worry about stage points. Mayer will have the rare advantage of matching his strategy for nothing less than a win which is always good from a betting standpoint. Unfortunately, I think Mayer is just a tad bit overvalued due to his recent string of success. As a result, I believe guys like Sammy Smith and Riley Herbst are better value options with similar ceilings. Smith has been impressive in just a few starts at Martinsville and it would not be surprising to see a semi-breakout performance from the driver of the #18.
Aside from the futures (win) options, I will be looking for H2H match-ups and perhaps a few prop bets with high-yield potential. Before I saw betting odds, I was really looking to target Brett Moffitt while hoping to find him paired against bottom-tier talents. However, it appears the secret is out on Moffitt’s ceiling and it actually appears he may be overvalued. Moffitt is currently paired against guys with much better equipment which is worth mentioning because the #25 team has had equipment trouble in 2 of the last 3 starts. Other H2H options that may yield sharp value include the likes of Daniel Hemric and Brandon Jones. Both of those drivers have historically performed very well on Martinsville despite the equipment factor. Meanwhile guys like Blaine Perkins and Jeb Burton should be cheap yet strong fantasy options!
2023 Dead On Tools 250 Betting Picks
*Final*
Sammy Smith +450 (1 unit)
Riley Herbst +1200 (.5 unit)
Sam Mayer +1200 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Myatt Snider -115 over Brett Moffitt (2 units)
Chandler Smith -135 over Layne Riggs (2 units)
Daniel Hemrc +1200 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
