2023 Daytona 500 Early Betting Odds
NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
By Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
Last Sunday, NASCAR unofficially kicked off the season with a return to the Los Angeles Coliseum in the running of the Busch Light Clash. While I personally hated the decision to return to the ¼ mile track inside the Coliseum which fails to showcase any of the individual drivers’ skill sets, I will say it was nice to see Martin Truex Jr get back to victory lane after going the entire 2022 campaign winless and reportedly considering retirement. More importantly, it was nice to see the Next Gen Car continue to produce an equal playing field across all organizations.
At one point, Ryan Preece appeared to be headed towards a victory after being away from the Cup Series for a few years. Not to mention, guys like Erik Jones and Noah Gragson were able to produce solid performances behind the wheel of inferior race teams. Needless to say, bettors should not expect to see any immediate return to dominance by the top organizations like we witnessed with the old car and throughout NASCAR’s previous history. As a result, we should expect another wild season which will kick off on February 19th with the biggest race of the season in the running of the Daytona 500.
In regards to the running of the Great American Race, there are currently 42 teams that will attempt to qualify for the Daytona 500 and that number could increase as we inch closer to Daytona Speedweeks. From a betting standpoint, we know that the races at Daytona are extremely unpredictable and rarely favor traditional handicapping that gives us an edge most weekends. Instead, betting the superspeedways have basically boiled down to a mathematical game of probabilities and betting value from driver’s odds. Perhaps we will learn more during on-track activities throughout speedweeks to give us some further handicapping insight. For now, I want to take a look at the early betting odds for the Daytona 500 and provoke some preliminary thoughts for a few drivers that have enough value for early consideration.
2023 Daytona 500 Betting Odds
| Driver | Daytona 500 Odds |
|---|
| Ryan Blaney | +1200 |
| Kyle Larson | +1200 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1200 |
| Chase Elliott | +1200 |
| Joey Logano | +1200 |
| William Byron | +1400 |
| Ross Chastain | +1600 |
| Kyle Busch | +1600 |
| Bubba Wallace | +1600 |
| Austin Cindric | +1800 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1800 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1800 |
| Christopher Bell | +2000 |
| Kevin Harvick | +2500 |
| Austin Dillon | +2500 |
| Alex Bowman | +2500 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2500 |
| Erik Jones | +2500 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +2800 |
| Michael McDowell | +2800 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +2800 |
| Daniel Suarez | +2800 |
| Chris Buescher | +2800 |
| Chase Briscoe | +2800 |
| Ryan Preece | +3300 |
| Aric Almirola | +3300 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +3300 |
| Justin Haley | +4000 |
| AJ Allmendinger | +4000 |
| Noah Gragson | +5000 |
| Harrison Burton | +6600 |
| Corey Lajoie | +6600 |
| Austin Hill | +8000 |
| David Ragan | +8000 |
| Zane Smith | +10000 |
| Todd Gilliland | +12500 |
| Ty Dillon | +12500 |
| Cody Ware | +20000 |
| BJ McLeod | +20000 |
For our early look at the Daytona 500, we are not going to pay attention to any of the drivers at less than 20-1 betting odds. Simply put, I would not lock-in any bets this early on the favorites. Not only has there not been a single driver to dominate the superspeedways in recent years that could warrant such early action but I would also state the fact that there is not much room to gain “value” for shifting betting odds as we get closer to start time. Bettors are much likely to get a better deal from oddsmakers overreacting to drivers that produce a poor qualifying effort or poor performance in the Gatorade Duels. At the superspeedway events, we are more likely to see significant odds movement to the downside as opposed to the upside. As a result, I think any early focus should be focused around the drivers with bigger numbers next to their name.
Based on my review of current betting odds, the drivers that really stand out in terms of raw overall value include the likes of Martin Truex Jr +2800, AJ Allmendinger +4000, and Justin Haley +4000. The argument could easily be made that Allmendinger and Haley could receive much bigger numbers closer to race time. However, I believe the Kaulig Racing teammates are going to be stronger than many people expect. Despite being a newer team at the Cup Series level, Kaulig Racing has the funding backing their teams and the alliances to contend. More importantly, AJ Allmendinger and Justin Haley are excellent superspeedway talents that have worked extremely well together in the last few years with Kaulig Racing in the Xfinity Series. Bettors should be prepared for another “teamwork” narrative for Daytona Speedweeks. If a long shot is going to win the Daytona 500 for the second straight year, I like the chances for the Kaulig Racing duo if they can stay out of trouble.
While I would love to take a few shots at deeper betting options in the 100-1 to 200-1 range that would produce a lottery style payday, I just can’t advocate justifiable reasons to take any of those drivers. That’s not to say those drivers cannot win but it’s simply that I can’t provide any handicapping narrative where that would be expected. Hopefully, we can get a few deeper options closer to race time. For now, my only other option would be last week’s winner in Martin Truex Jr. Before I get any backlash, I realize that Truex has never won at a superspeedway event. However, I also realize that Truex has an impressive average driver rating and has several stage wins at Daytona over the last few years. While I don’t believe Truex’s win in the Busch Light Clash will translate into another return to prominence, he has still been strong at the superspeedways and I think that warrants consideration at +2800 odds.
