2023 CRC Brakleen 150 Race Picks

NASCAR Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 22nd, 2023. 12:00PM (EST)
Where: Pocono Raceway
TV: FS1

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Craftsman Truck Series and Xfinity Series will partake in a double-header at the Tricky Triangle known as Pocono Raceway. The Truck Series will have the luxury of kicking off the action with the running of the Brakleen 150 before the Xfinity Series takes over in the afternoon spotlight. Nevertheless, we will have back to back betting opportunities on Saturday and the opening Truck Series race may be the best opportunity of the day. Therefore, let’s discuss what bettors should expect in Saturday’s Brakleen 150.

For starters and perhaps most importantly, Kyle Busch will be making his 5th and final appearance in the Truck Series this Saturday. Busch won earlier this season at Las Vegas in his first Truck Series start of the season but has gone 0-3 with two runner-up finishes in the 3 starts since. As everyone is aware, Busch is the best to ever compete in the Truck Series with a 37% (63 wins/169 starts) career winning percentage. At Pocono specifically, Busch has two wins and two runner-up finishes in 5 career starts in Truck Series competition. Needless to say, Busch has been impressive at Pocono and he flexed that muscle again on Saturday by posting the fastest lap in practice at 165.975mph.

While Busch will obviously be an overwhelming favorite on Saturday, it is important to note that qualifying yielded an array of different opinions on Friday. Though Busch posted the fast lap in practice, both Busch and fellow Cup Series star Christopher Bell failed to crack the top 10 in qualifying. Instead, rookie Nick Sanchez posted the fastest lap in qualifying with a blazing speed of 168.966mph. While Sanchez’s fast lap may not have been too far-fetched considering he has won 3 poles previously this season, the starting lineup was vastly different from practice times on Friday which means the field should be mixed with guys that will move forwards and backwards once the green flag waves. Usually, that combination yields betting opportunities if we can identify the drivers that should move forward on Saturday.

Handicapping Notes

Pocono Raceway is called the Tricky Triangle for a reason. There are 3 distinct corners that are mirrored towards other venues which makes handling very different at opposing ends of the track. The 2.5 mile layout obviously produces tremendous speeds especially down the front stretch. Therefore, Pocono Raceway is one of the rare venues where raw speed, handling, and driver are all an equal part of the handicapping equation. The drivers with the best car control that can carry maximum corner speed will prevail but there is no amount of talent that can overcome insufficient power under the hood or a setup that cannot carry speed through the corners. As a result, our betting targets should be focused equally around the top “equipment” as it is around the top drivers for Saturday’s CRC Brakleen 150.

Practice Observations

Despite the mixed qualifying results on Saturday, I do believe practice results yielded expectations that align with our handicapping notes above. In practice, Kyle Busch was without question the best driver in the field by a relatively wide margin. Busch is in top-tier equipment driving for his self-owned team and he is the best driver in the field. Most of Busch’s lap times were several tenths better than everyone in the field which makes his qualifying result even more puzzling. Along with Busch, I thought Corey Heim was probably the 2nd best truck on Friday. Heim’s 4th place finish in last year’s CRC Brakleen 150 was the best of the Truck Series regulars and I believe he has the same upside/probable potential again on Saturday.

Carson Hocevar, Ty Majeski, and Zane Smith were all within striking distance on the stopwatch. Personally, I just don’t believe that those guys have the best horsepower under the hood based on how those teams have performed at some of the 1.5 mile venues that are nearly wide open. However, the TRICON Garage stable of Heim, Taylor Gray, and Tanner Gray all displayed really strong speed on Friday. In fact, the speed shown from all of those trucks is one reason that I believe Heim could be a factor for the outright win on Saturday. Perhaps all of the TRICON Garage guys deserve some attention going into Saturday as potential fantasy/H2H targets.

Betting Targets

Speaking of betting targets, Busch’s lackluster qualifying effort may provide an uptick in value. However, rest assured his betting odds reflect his heavy favorite status for justifiable reasons. With that being said, I always tend to fade Busch in these races from a betting perspective because the odds on the rest of the competition are simply too juicy to ignore. As I stated above, Corey Heim is probably my favorite option to take down Rowdy on Friday. Heim has been extremely strong at all of the horsepower venues and his performance in last year’s race at Pocono is noteworthy as well. As a result, Heim can be targeted in all formats with confidence.

One of the guys that I have not mentioned yet is Christian Eckes. Admittedly, Eckes had a disappointing afternoon on Friday with lackluster speed. In fact, Eckes did not even get a chance to qualify because the team found some issues that have not been disclosed which could speak to the performance issues in practice. Either way, Eckes has been too good this season at the faster tracks to ignore and if we can find his name in valuable match-ups against intermediate competition, Eckes will be a H2H target on Saturday. Eckes and Ty Majeski are both starting from the rear and are likely automatic fantasy plays.

Meanwhile, I believe pole sitter Nick Sanchez deserves equal response for his performance at the bigger layouts this season. Unfortunately, I just don’t see the value being there for Sanchez to yield many opportunities. Lastly, I would list Austin Hill and Grant Enfinger as some of the drivers to keep on the radar. Hill will be stepping down from the Xfinity Series which is something he has rarely done since graduating from Truck Series competition. However, Hill has always been strong at Pocono and is in pretty decent equipment.

Draftkings CRC Brakleen 150 Optimal Lineup

2023 CRC Brakleen 150 Race Picks

*Final*

Corey Heim +500 (1 unit)
Nick Sanchez +1200 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Corey Heim -150 over Zane Smith (2 units)
Christian Eckes +400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)