2023 Crayon 301 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday July 16th, 2023. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
TV: USA

Following a very successful betting afternoon on Saturday in the Xfinity Series where we profited 16.5 units, our betting focus shifts on Sunday to the Cup Series and the running of the Crayon 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Fortunately, New Hampshire Motor Speedway is one of those venues that tends to favor handicappers and bettors. The flat 1.058 mile layout in Loudon typically produces long green flag runs and that means bets are not always flip-flopped by strategy, cautions, and restarts. If we can string together some sharp bets, we should have the opportunity to find profit again!

As I covered in our Xfinity Series preview, I consider New Hampshire Motor Speedway an overgrown Martinsville Speedway. Both tracks require similar driving characteristics to be successful and also produce similar racing products that heavily favor track position because passing can be difficult. Likewise, both tracks also tend to produce those longer green flag runs which means long run speed could be the ultimate premium on Sunday. Therefore, we will take a look at the drivers that have excelled at New Hampshire Motor Speedway that have proven to have the skill set through historical trends and also take a look at some more current trends with NASCAR’s short track package to formulate our expectations.

On Saturday, Christopher Bell earned the pole for Sunday’s Crayon 301 with a fast lap of 124.781mph. As many are aware, Bell is the defending winner at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in the Cup Series coming from his victory last year in the Ambetter 301. Bell has been nothing shy of phenomenal throughout his career in Loudon. The youngster has a Truck Series win, 3 consecutive Xfinity Series wins, and a Cup Series victory in just 9 career starts at the track across all NASCAR’s touring series. In fact, Bell has only finished worse than 2nd once in his career at New Hampshire which came in his rookie season (2021) in the Cup Series. Therefore, Bell’s pedigree is 2nd to none at New Hampshire and Saturday’s pole winning lap only solidified his spot as an overwhelming favorite going into Sunday.

Handicapping Notes

While it would appear that Bell could go wire to wire on Sunday, I would reiterate that handling can be very important at New Hampshire. Drivers need a car/setup that will continue to turn/rotate through the corners and they will also need the same car/setup to provide long-run speed. As we know, the margin of error is razor thin with this Next Gen Car because the cars are so similar across the board. Therefore, I think bettors must still remain open-minded about potential winners on Sunday as we look to target some other names that should perform well. Also, I would reiterate that futures (win) bets rarely produce a lot of value at New Hampshire. Oftentimes, the top favorites are the ones that win these races in Loudon. However, H2H match-ups usually offer the opportunity to find more disparity and that will be where we likely find bulk value.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway – Loop Data

Though I know the Cup Series has only raced once with the Next Gen Car at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, I compiled loop data statistics over the last 5 races in Loudon to shed light into the drivers that have excelled in the most recent events at this venue. I believe driving styles needed to be successful in Loudon are transcendent among both the old car and the new car. Therefore, I believe these statistics below can still be useful in the overall handicapping evaluation despite the bulk of the data coming from the old car. Just remember the old car did have bigger disparity amongst the major teams and since the majority of this data is based around the old car, we must give consideration to the equipment those drivers were piloting at the time.

As we see below, Kevin Harvick leads all drivers with a 118.4 average rating thanks to back to back wins in 2018 and 2019. Harvick actually leads all active driver’s with 4 career wins at New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Brad Keselowski and the Joe Gibbs Racing trio of Martin Truex Jr, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell round out the top 5 in our loop data rankings. In observing all of this data, Aric Almirola’s driver stats stands out as an impressive anomaly. Almirola did not always have the best equipment with the old car but has consistently run strong. Almirola broke through with an upset victory in 2021. With that being said, I’m not necessarily advocating for a play towards Almirola especially given the Stewart-Haas Racing struggles. However, he is among the drivers like Brad Keselowski and Erik Jones who have stood out despite the equipment factor. While I won’t go into these stats in too much depth, these metrics should be a reference when deciding betting picks.

*Data reflects drivers with at least two starts over the last 5 races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	118.4	11.4	4.6	3.6	5.8	49	173	125	1497
Brad Keselowski	109.4	6.2	9.6	10.6	7.6	-4	109	249	1489
Martin Truex Jr	109.3	4.4	12.6	5.8	9.2	91	110	255	1497
Denny Hamlin	103.7	9.8	9.0	6.6	8.8	106	140	206	1497
Christopher Bell	101.2	16.3	9.0	10.3	10.0	38	69	42	893
Aric Almirola	99.3	10.4	6.0	10.6	10.2	61	95	81	1478
Chase Elliott	98.9	6.0	12.0	12.6	10.6	68	65	98	1485
Joey Logano	95.8	12.6	8.6	10.0	10.8	54	27	26	1496
Ryan Blaney	93.3	8.0	12.4	10.8	9.8	39	53	69	1496
Kyle Larson	82.4	13.3	9.3	16.5	12.3	48	44	0	1158
Kyle Busch	80.1	5.6	19.8	19.4	19.6	31	103	160	926
William Byron	79.2	14.2	12.0	13.8	13.4	23	11	0	1496
Tyler Reddick	76.9	11.3	17.3	14.7	14.0	14	7	0	894
Erik Jones	71.2	14.8	20.8	16.2	17.0	-6	13	4	1494
Ross Chastain	65.0	25.5	18.8	16.5	19.8	30	4	3	1191
Alex Bowman	64.2	17.0	19.8	16.8	19.6	5	1	0	1200
Daniel Suarez	62.3	21.8	15.8	19.2	20.8	-47	13	0	1492
Bubba Wallace	61.7	18.2	22.0	19.6	20.0	-29	13	0	1492
Austin Dillon	60.5	20.8	21.2	21.2	22.6	10	28	3	1461
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	60.2	23.6	23.2	23.4	20.8	-41	4	11	1325
Chris Buescher	59.2	21.2	21.4	21.2	20.4	-60	6	0	1491
Ryan Preece	58.6	27.7	20.3	19.7	20.7	3	0	0	893
Chase Briscoe	57.0	24.0	22.0	21.0	20.5	-3	5	6	591
AJ Allmendinger	48.6	18.0	27.5	26.0	26.0	-13	0	0	319
Ty Dillon	48.5	25.8	26.0	23.5	26.3	-54	1	0	906
Michael McDowell	48.3	21.8	25.4	23.0	24.8	-85	1	0	1491
Justin Haley	45.5	27.5	22.0	24.0	26.0	-29	0	0	591
Corey LaJoie	43.6	28.4	26.4	28.0	27.8	-46	1	0	1239
J.J Yeley	37.7	31.0	31.0	29.0	29.5	-19	1	0	598

Practice Observations

In Saturday’s practice, Martin Truex Jr displayed the best overall speed in race trim. Truex led all drivers with the fastest 5 and 10 lap averages. Unfortunately, practice was not long enough to really shed light towards long-run speed. Typically, we would like to see lap times after about 20 laps to have a better gauge of long-run speed. Of the few drivers that did run 15-20 consecutive laps, Christopher Bell did have the best lap times. Meanwhile, the likes of Michael McDowell, Kevin Harvick, and Ty Gibbs appeared to be among the best of that smaller group. McDowell was actually impressive throughout the entire session as he posted the fastest single lap speed overall and compiled very consistent laps that were not far off the likes of Truex and Bell. Therefore, perhaps McDowell is trending in the right direction going into Sunday.

While I’m not exactly sure we learned who to target from practice alone, I will say that the Chevrolet teams appeared to be on the wrong side of the performance indicator. There was not a single Chevrolet driver in the top 10 on the 10 lap consecutive average charts. William Byron was the only driver to get inside the top 10 in qualifying so needless to say the Chevrolet teams did not have an impressive Saturday afternoon which is surprising considering the Chevrolet teams have dominated the short tracks all season. I would also document the struggles of Kyle Busch on Saturday. Busch wrecked in practice and wrecked again in qualifying. Busch actually made the final round of qualifying which is awarded to the top 10 drivers but lost control of the car getting into the corner. As a result, Busch will be forced to start from the rear of the field due to the repairs needed.

Betting Targets

As we attempt to put everything together on Sunday, I am going to stay true to my narrative that futures (win) value remains limited. Christopher Bell will be a popular pick for all the right reasons on Sunday. If you wish to chase better value, I think Martin Truex Jr and Denny Hamlin are deserving pivots with better overall betting odds. If you are looking for even better value, I think Kevin Harvick likely has the best underdog value. Harvick is the only SHR driver that has been competitive this season and was within striking distance of lap times in practice. Harvick is one of those drivers that excels at venues that produce long green flag runs and he has the historical pedigree at New Hampshire to garner consideration again this weekend.

Harvick is actually playable in all formats including fantasy lineups from his 13th place starting position. For H2H specific targets, Brad Keselowski and Michael McDowell are a couple of my sharpest picks going into Sunday. Keselowski has been really good at New Hampshire and the #6 team at RFK have really been competitive in the last several races. For McDowell, he does not have the history on his side but I can’t ignore the speed that he showed in Saturday’s practice. As a low-tier driver, McDowell should be targeted in most H2H match-ups. I would also throw out the JGR trio of Bell, Hamlin, and Truex as potential H2H targets however that all depends if we can find value in the right match-ups. Those drivers may not offer any value at all but are probably the most likely front-runners for Sunday.

Draftkings Crayon 301 Optimal Lineup

2023 Crayon 301 Race Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +350 (1 unit))
Kevin Harvick +1000 (.75 unit)
Denny Hamlin +1200 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Brad Keselowski -115 over Ty Gibbs (3 units)
Kevin Harvick -115 over William Byron (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -130 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
William Byron +300 wins Group B (Harvick, Elliott, Busch)(1 unit)