2023 Cook Out Southern 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday September 3rd, 2023. 6:00PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: NBC

Last week Chris Buescher earned his 3rd victory of the season in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona. Buescher’s recent hot streak includes 3 wins over the last 5 races and he helped close out the regular season as the major surprise story in the Cup Series. However, Buescher and the rest of the Cup Series drivers that have secured their spot in the Chase for the Cup will be starting with a fresh slate on Sunday, in the opening race of the playoffs, with the running of the prestigious Cook Out Southern 500. While the playoff drama remains front and center, Darlington Raceway has traditionally been a strong venue for handicappers and we are hoping to kick off the playoffs with a profitable betting card!

When it comes to handicapping Darlington Raceway, I often rely on historical trends as our primary handicapping angle. While other angles should be considered, Darlington Raceway is a true driver’s track and that is because the driver behind the wheel attributes the most towards lap times. The 1.366 mile speedway is very narrow and has two distinct ends of the speedway that must be raced differently. Perhaps most importantly, Darlington’s extremely aged surface provides minimal grip and significant tire wear that will lead to lap times falling off by as much as 3 seconds over the course of a green flag run. Therefore this track is not like your typical oval where equipment and raw speed are of utmost importance. Instead, long-run speed and managing tires are just as important towards being successful at this fickle venue.

The reason that historical trends are the primary handicapping source is because drivers either know how to get around Darlington with speed or they tend to struggle. Needless to say, those trends or tendencies appear in most historical data analysis. If I could classify this characteristic or talent for success at Darlington, I would probably label the drivers with the best car control and those guys that have very smooth driving styles (tire wear) as the guys that always find the front at Darlington. Therefore as a rule of thumb, bettors should always target those drivers with the better car control/style of driving as opposed to drivers that are in better equipment or “should” outperform another driver based on trends from traditional ovals!

Cup Series Notes at Darlington

• There have been 6 different race winners over the last 6 races at Darlington.
• Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 4 career wins at Darlington. Hamlin also has the best career average finishing position (7.7) among all active drivers as well.
• Kevin Harvick (3), Martin Truex (2), Erik Jones (2), William Byron, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski are former winners at Darlington.
• Kevin Harvick leads all drivers with an impressive 6.3 average finishing position over the last 10 races at Darlington which includes two victories.
• Despite not having any wins, Kyle Larson has 3 runner-up finishes in his last 6 starts at Darlington.
• Joey Logano has a strong 8.7 average finishing position over the last 10 races at Darlington. Logano won the spring race at Darlington last year which was the first race in the Next Gen Car.
• Darlington is Erik Jones’ best track. Jones has two wins and a 12.7 average finishing position in his last 10 starts.
• Martin Truex Jr has the highest performance rating (111.9) over the last 8 races at Darlington. Truex also has a massive lead in the overall laps led (682) category during that same time period.
• AJ Allmendinger has never finished inside the top 15 in 12 career starts at Darlington.
• Ryan Blaney has just 2 top 10 finishes in 13 career starts at Darlington with a career best 8th place result (among Blaney’s worst tracks).
• There have been at least 8 cautions in the last 4 races at Darlington.
• The eventual race winner has started in the top 5 positions in 4 of the last 5 races at Darlington.

Loop Data – Darlington

Since a lot of our historical data includes the old car that was heavily tailored towards the top teams/equipment, I wanted to put together a different viewpoint this week which displays the 3 races at Darlington Raceway in the Next Gen Car. I’m hoping this provides some insight into the drivers that have performed better at Darlington in the new car vs. the old car. However I would warn anyone that because this data sample is only 3 races, it is more subject to outliers meaning a single strong performance or bad (wreck) performance can move the averages more than a larger data set.

With that being said, William Byron, who won the spring race, has emerged as the best thus far in the Next Gen Car at Darlington. Byron has posted triple digit average ratings in all 3 races at Darlington and led laps in each of those races. Behind Byron, there is a pretty large group of guys with triple digit averages which includes the likes of Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, Christopher Bell, and Ross Chastain. Busch and Truex immediately emerge from that group as the most impressive because they have both received awful finishes in the last 3 races at Darlington. However, the data does not lie which means both drivers have actually performed really well despite the results.

As we look further down the loop data stats, I would call attention to guys like Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace, and Erik Jones who have clearly outperformed typical expectations. I already mentioned in our notes above that Darlington is Jones’ best track and both of his huge underdog victories have come within the last 9 races. Meanwhile, Reddick is a guy that many people will not necessarily consider as a top threat at Darlington. However, Reddick always excels at the tracks with the least amount of grip and he has posted top 3 finishes in 2 of the last 3 starts at Darlington with this Next Gen Car. Perhaps another guy that deserves some respect for his credentials at Darlington in recent races is Ross Chastain. Chastain has not exactly performed well in recent weeks but he does have a triple digit average rating combined with a fairly high total in the “fastest laps” department. Therefore, Chastain deserves some consideration based on the numbers alone.

*Loop data reflects last 3 races at Darlington in the Next Gen Car

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
William Byron	114.2	5.3	4.7	7.3	5.0	-13	62	81	955
Joey Logano	106.6	5.7	9.0	7.7	8.0	10	58	171	955
Kyle Busch	105.8	7.3	3.7	23.3	8.3	11	59	174	807
Martin Truex Jr	103.7	7.3	2.0	28.7	6.3	-6	123	221	879
Christopher Bell	101.4	7.0	7.3	8.3	7.3	15	25	3	955
Ross Chastain	100.4	8.3	12.3	26.3	11.3	-9	107	120	847
Tyler Reddick	94.7	7.7	7.0	9.0	9.7	24	33	10	955
Denny Hamlin	93.9	13.7	7.0	11.7	9.7	10	39	57	954
Bubba Wallace	85.5	9.0	14.7	13.7	11.0	2	23	7	922
Ryan Blaney	85.1	9.0	13.0	13.0	11.7	38	20	4	955
Erik Jones	83.9	18.0	10.3	17.0	12.7	16	17	24	922
Kevin Harvick	80.4	24.3	11.3	13.0	14.7	39	9	6	862
Kyle Larson	78.9	5.3	23.0	22.7	18.3	-6	49	59	774
Chase Elliott	72.1	26.0	19.3	14.7	18.3	41	12	0	701
Brad Keselowski	71.3	19.3	17.3	15.0	18.0	7	11	11	828
Aric Almirola	70.4	17.0	15.3	14.3	16.0	1	2	0	955
Daniel Suarez	68.7	20.7	16.7	20.7	18.3	2	19	0	859
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	68.2	16.3	19.0	18.7	20.0	-11	10	0	752
Alex Bowman	67.8	15.5	19.0	19.5	16.5	-10	1	0	622
Michael McDowell	67.6	15.0	17.7	15.3	18.3	35	10	0	860
Austin Cindric	64.2	16.7	18.0	17.7	19.0	-24	15	0	955
Ty Gibbs	64.1	17.0	19.5	15.5	19.5	-2	4	0	662
Justin Haley	64.0	21.7	24.0	10.0	21.7	9	2	0	954
Harrison Burton	61.9	22.3	22.0	13.7	20.0	-29	4	0	954
Austin Dillon	56.6	15.0	21.3	20.3	22.0	-41	3	0	856
Todd Gilliland	54.5	27.3	29.3	18.0	24.3	-13	6	0	951
Chris Buescher	51.0	24.0	27.7	17.3	24.0	-22	2	0	953
Ty Dillon	47.7	27.7	25.0	20.3	25.7	-12	1	0	952
Chase Briscoe	46.5	21.0	28.0	21.3	24.7	-27	0	0	951
Corey LaJoie	42.6	32.7	27.0	27.7	27.3	-7	4	4	810

Betting Targets

I am releasing this preview a bit early (Friday) this week because I think there is some early value in betting odds that bettors should consider. I will update the practice and final thoughts section after on-track activities conclude on Saturday. However, I typically do not overreact to practice observations at Darlington because true speed does not emerge until deepers into the green flag runs. With that being said, I would clearly label Truex and Hamlin as the drivers to beat going into the weekend. Both drivers have truly remarkable stats at Darlington, especially Truex in recent races. I believe Truex has been the best overall driver throughout the season and he is probably the best in the Cup Series towards maximizing long-run speed. Therefore, give Truex the nod as the rightful favorite going into the weekend.

In lieu of recent weeks where a lot of intermediate (odds) drivers have captured wins, I have a feeling we could see another somewhat unexpected driver in victory lane this week. Obviously guys like William Byron, Kyle Larson, and even Kyle Busch should be considered undeniable threats. However, I am looking at guys with even better odds like Tyler Reddick and Brad Keselowski as potential spoilers. Both drivers have performed really well at Darlington in the Next Gen Car. Keselowski has finished 7th and 4th in the last two races and I would argue that RFK Racing has found a ton of speed in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Reddick just fits the type of driver that usually finds the front at Darlington where he gets better as the tires lose grip and will probably move forward throughout the night. As a result, I consider both Reddick and Keselowski targets in all formats.

I will be waiting for practice and qualifying sessions before I make many H2H selections mainly to ensure I avoid any guys that just completely miss the setup this week. Therefore be sure to check back for the final thoughts that will be added after Saturday’s sessions. As a departing note, I did notice that both Todd Gilliland and Harrison Burton have performed much better than anyone would likely notice at Darlington in recent races. Both drivers are bottom-tier talents but both drivers also have a pair of top 15 finishes in the last 3 races with the Next Gen Car. Burton actually finished 6th in the spring. Therefore, I have this particular duo on my radar for fantasy and prop bet opportunities. Both drivers rarely qualify well so they may provide both prop and fantasy opportunities!

Practice Observations and Final Thoughts

Update: Earlier this afternoon, Christopher Bell won the pole for tomorrow’s Cook Out Southern 500 with a fast lap of 169.193mph. Personally, I was not happy with Bell winning the pole because I tagged him as a potential target following a very impressive practice session. I thought the #20 was the best of the split practice groups and he proved that fact with his top qualifying speed. If you want a breakdown of practice observations, I could probably simplify everything by stating the Toyotas looked phenomenal. I was already heavily favoring Hamlin and Truex prior to the start of the weekend. However, the emergence of Bell and both 23XI Racing cars in Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick were also noteworthy. Simply put, everyone appears to be chasing the Toyotas on Sunday.

Behind the Toyotas, I felt that William Byron and Kyle Larson were very competitive. Several of the drivers that we expected to run well this weekend in the likes of Erik Jones, Brad Keselowski, and Harrison Burton were also trending in the right direction. I would also give a nod of the cap to Michael McDowell who appeared much faster than anyone would have expected in practice. Meanwhile on the opposite end of the spectrum, I thought the Team Penske cars appeared to struggle which has been the case in recent weeks at the traditional ovals. Despite the strength of the Toyotas, Ty Gibbs did not look near as strong as his counterparts. Additionally, Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott appeared to be in failing test setups because both drivers appeared to be well off the pace.

2023 Cook Out Southern 500 Optimal Lineup

2023 Cook Out Southern 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +500 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +750 (1 unit)
William Byron +1200 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +1500 (.75 unit)
Brad Keselowski +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Harrison Burton -115 over Corey LaJoie (3 units)
Michael McDowell -145 over Ricky Stenhouse Jr (2 units)
Erik Jones -115 over Ty Gibbs (2 units)
Carson Hocevar -115 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)
Harrison Burton +800 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)