2023 Cook Out 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday July 29th, 2023. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Richmond Raceway
TV: NBC

The Cup Series returns to Richmond Raceway for the 2nd time this season on Sunday for the running of the Cook Out 400. Back in early April, Kyle Larson earned his first victory of the season by winning the Toyota Owners 400. Larson and teammate William Byron combined to lead over 200 laps in that race. In many ways, the tandem of Larson and Byron have been phenomenal all season on the short tracks which definitely boost their outlook going into the weekend. However, it was a big group of Toyotas that stole the show on Saturday to prove there will be plenty of contenders to consider for the Cup Series’ return to Richmond.

On Saturday, Cup Series’ teams got their first taste of on-track activities for the weekend. Following a brief practice session, Tyler Reddick scored his 2nd pole award of the season with a fast lap of 113.689mph. Reddick was accompanied by a big group of Toyotas that took 5 of the top 10 qualifying spots including impressive qualifying efforts by Bubba Wallace (5th) and Ty Gibbs (7th) among others. Interestingly, Toyota teams have won 6 of the last 10 races at Richmond and all early indicators suggest they will be tough again this weekend. However, we already know that racing at Richmond constitutes much more than fast single lap speed.

As I have alluded to in prior previews this weekend, Richmond Raceway tends to produce long green-flag runs. Even if that is not the case, the track has a tendency to change throughout the course of a race which means teams will have to stay on top of their changes. Don’t be surprised if we see several comer and goers throughout tomorrow afternoon’s 400 lap event. More importantly than anything, our handicapping and betting strategy should be centered around drivers that have shown a strong history of excelling at Richmond because there are several things the driver can do behind the wheel to maximize long-run speed. Therefore, we will take a look at a little bit of everything before finalizing our picks for Sunday.

Practice Observations

I’m going to discuss practice observations first because I believe practice speeds can be misleading at times at Richmond. Obviously, lap times are worth gauging who has short-run speed but keep in mind that long-run speed is the premium at Richmond. With that being said, William Byron dominated most practice metrics on Saturday by pacing the field with the best 5, 10, 15, and 20 lap averages. To say Byron’s speed was impressive would be an understatement because the #24 car had the field covered by nearly two tenths on average in every category. Obviously, Byron was really strong in the spring race and it is evident that the team has return another really fast car.

One important item to call out is that Byron, Chase Elliott, Chris Buescher, Erik Jones, and Aric Almirola were all in the opening group (A) in practice. All 5 of those cars finished with the top 5 fastest times thanks to cool track conditions. I think we must be transparent with practice charts because they can be misleading at face value. For example, I thought Reddick, Larson, and Kevin Harvick were all really strong in the final group (B) in practice. If you simply look at final practice results, those drivers did not even crack the top 10 but rest assured that was purely due to track conditions. In fact, I thought Harvick looked really strong in practice and perhaps is worthy of dark horse consideration.

Track History

I believe track history and prior performances at Richmond are very credible for handicapping this weekend. When you look at the prior track history, there is a short list of names that stand out which includes the likes of Kyle Busch (6), Denny Hamlin (4), and Kevin Harvick (4) who have combined for 14 victories. If we look at more recent trends, Martin Truex Jr has won 3 of the last 8 races at Richmond and has a remarkable 4.8 average finishing position over the last 10 races. In recent years, Truex has been the best in the Cup Series at Richmond but the likes of Harvick, Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin have razor thin similar stats. Therefore we would be foolish to avoid those names as top considerations this weekend at a venue where driver input is so important.

Betting Targets

In yesterday’s Truck Series preview, I mentioned the fact that Richmond often leads a lot to be desired in terms of futures (win) odds. Because these races are usually top heavy in favor of the favorites, we don’t usually see a lot of value towards win bets. Therefore, we should be relatively conservative towards futures this week for that particular reason. With that being said, I was slightly surprised to see William Byron listed as the 5th-6th betting favorite at near 10-1 odds. I figured Byron would be among the outright favorites but it seems odds makers are leaning towards Truex and Hamlin for that position. While I can definitely agree with that concept for Truex, I think both Hamlin and Harvick are slightly overvalued. As a result, Truex and Byron have the best outright picks based on value and probability components combined.

Our best chance of stealing profits will likely come in the form of H2H match-ups this week. Though Harvick is a bit overvalued for the outright win, I really like his H2H potential against guys like Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, and others in that betting range. I really believe this is Harvick’s best chance to win before the year concludes so I will have some action on him in some form or fashion. Sharper H2H options include guys like Austin Dillon and Aric Almirola. Both Dillon and Almirola have extremely surprising results at Richmond which features a vast amount of quality finishes. Based on the SHR struggles this season, Almirola is perhaps the riskier option but still could be playable in bottom-tier match-ups. Meanwhile, I believe Dillon may be the sharpest H2H bet in the field. One final name to also keep on the radar in H2H/fantasy formats includes Michael McDowell who finished 6th in the spring race and has shown speed again this weekend.

Draftkings Cook Out 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 Cook Out 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +500 (1 unit)
William Byron +900 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

William Byron -155 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Christopher Bell -105 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
Aric Almirola -115 over Chris Buescher (2 units)
Austin Dillon +450 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)