2023 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday August 26th, 2023. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Daytona International Speedway
TV: NBC

The playoff drama that has been building over the last several weeks will culminate on the high banks of Daytona International Speedway this Saturday in an under the lights spectacle for the running of the Coke Zero Sugar 400. By now, many are aware of the storylines which require the likes of Ty Gibbs, Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, Austin Dillon, and others who all need a victory to capture the 16th and final playoff position. Last year, Dillon pulled off a dramatic victory at Daytona in a similar must-win scenario which makes everyone wonder if we could see another clutch playoff securing victory. While the playoff drama will certainly be entertaining and fun to watch, we must shift our focus towards trying to predict a potential winner in what promises to be a chaotic night of racing!

After two fairly boring road course races over the last two weeks which produced 2 combined cautions, I am sort of expecting all hell to break loose on Saturday. In last year’s Coke Zero Sugar 400, survival turned into the best strategy component as there were 9 different cautions and just 10 drivers left on the lead lap by the time of the checkered flag. I’m not exactly expecting that type of volatility again this weekend but I cannot rule out the possibility either. Ever since NASCAR moved the summer Daytona race to this regular season finale in August, these superspeedway races have been more chaotic than ever which means bettors should proceed with a very conservative betting approach this Saturday.

In order to cash a winning ticket in this type of race, bettors tend to need a little bit of skill and a lot of luck. I mentioned in our Xfinity Series preview for the WaWa 250 that the superspeedway events have not been too kind this year with a lot of betting favorites pulling out victories. The same storyline has unfolded in the Cup Series as well with guys like Joey Logano (Atlanta), Kyle Busch (Talladega), and William Byron (Atlanta) earning wins as top-tier betting favorites. The only exception on the superspeedways came back in February when Ricky Stenhouse Jr delivered an upset in the Daytona 500. Therefore, I still have hope we can have our money on a winning number that provides the ROI that we desire in these superspeedway events.

Betting Strategy

I continuously make the statement that you can bet on any driver at a superspeedway and make a justifiable argument for the selection. Just look at the top 5 from qualifying on Friday which included the likes of Chase Briscoe, Aric Almirola, Harrison Burton, Bubba Wallace, and Ty Gibbs for evidence of that fact. After all, these superspeedway races have always provided the most parity in the Cup Series especially in today’s environment with the Next Gen Car. Therefore, I will never fault anyone for taking chances on the drivers they think should run well and potentially pull out a victory. However, I must reiterate that betting strategy should be primarily centered around betting value that provides substantial ROI potential. These races are almost impossible to predict but if we have the right ROI behind our selections; it can still be a profitable long-term strategy.

Loop Data – Superspeedways

If you look at our dynamic averages which provide performance data for the last 5 superspeedway races, then you will notice that Ryan Blaney is the only driver with a triple digit average rating over our data period. I have contested that Blaney has been the best superspeedway talent in the series for the last few years and he has a pretty sizable lead in our performance metrics. However, notice how all of the performance metrics are somewhat modest which proves the difficulty of staying upfront in these races. Track position is more important in this new car due to the aero difference so this is usually a matter of who will be out front at the right time?

In reviewing our performance metrics, the names that stick out to me are Austin Cindric, Aric Almirola, and Chris Buescher. Buescher has been red-hot in recent weeks with back to back victories at Richmond and Michigan. Buescher has always been a solid superspeedway talent and perhaps he is a guy that deserves some attention again this week. Aric Almirola has been a disappointment this season but if there is any place where he could make lightning strike in a bottle; it would be at a superspeedway venue. Meanwhile, Cindric is one of my sneaky sharp targets this week. After winning the Daytona 500 last year, Cindric finished 3rd in this race last season. He has been very solid in most of the superspeedway events and I think he has the “value” that we typically target.

Betting Targets

As I stated above, there are not any incorrect betting targets. However, I will try to outline the drivers that make the most sense to me based on performance data, superspeedway skill set, and current betting odds. With that being said, I like Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin among the favorites. Both Blaney and Hamlin are the top two superspeedway talents in the field and are getting pretty generous 12-1 odds. Therefore, I think both drivers warrant consideration and exposure for the victory. Behind the top two favorites, guys like Bubba Wallace and Chris Buescher are considerable options. However, I just hate their current betting odds. In fact, we could get better value in guys like William Byron and Kyle Busch in that same odds range. Remember, Busch was among the fastest cars back in February and just barely missed out on a victory in the 500.

As we look through the field for value, Austin Dillon and Ricky Stenhouse Jr are both proven superspeedway talents and former winners at Daytona. Stenhouse won the 500 earlier this year and Dillon is a two-time Daytona winner including last year’s Coke Zero Sugar 400. At near 30-1 odds, both drivers have enough value to warrant consideration. Drivers that are further down the totem pole that would qualify for lottery style winners and perhaps provide value in prop bet formats include the likes of Michael McDowell, Erik Jones, and Austin Hill. Those 3 drivers are all excellent superspeedway talents despite not being in top-tier equipment. McDowell has been on fire in recent weeks so it would not surprise me to see the #38 stay towards the front of the field.

2023 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Ryan Blaney +1200 (.75 unit)
Denny Hamlin +1200 (.75 unit)
Austin Cindric +2500 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +2500 (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +3000 (.5 unit)
Michael McDowell +3000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Tyler Reddick +900 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Austin Hill +300 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)