2023 Coca Cola 600 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday May 28th, 2023. 6:00PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway
TV: FOX

The greatest day in racing returns on Sunday and will culminate in the evening hours at Charlotte Motor Speedway for the running of the Coca Cola 600. This Memorial Day weekend racing fans will once again be treated to a full afternoon of high stakes competition with the Monaco Grand Prix, Indianapolis 500, and lastly the running of NASCAR’s longest race in the Coca Cola 600. The only thing that could make Sunday even better is nailing a few betting picks. With that being said, let’s dive into our 2023 Coca Cola 600 race picks.

The biggest storyline heading into Sunday’s 600 mile affair surrounds Mother Nature. Rain canceled both practice and qualifying on Saturday. Therefore, Cup Series teams and drivers will not have any on-track time prior to Sunday’s green flag. Obviously, this makes things more difficult for bettors as it robs handicappers from having an opportunity to observe practice speeds. However, it is also not uncommon to have limited to essentially no practices in today’s environment. Perhaps the bigger concern is that the threat of rain will likely carry over until the evening hours of Sunday which means we could be battling weather issues throughout the weekend.

Earlier on Saturday, the Xfinity Series planned running of the Alsco 300 was also canceled due to rain. I bring that up because the Alsco 300 will not resume until Monday and this rain that has covered the speedway over the last two days will create a completely “green” track once the Coca Cola 600 begins regardless of when that happens. Personally, I believe that will create more handling concerns especially early in the race and I would not be surprised to see “comers and goers” as this track transitions as rubber is laid down. In last year’s Coca Cola 600 which was the first for the Next Gen Car, we saw a near record number of cautions (18) and I would not be surprised if that number is relatively high again this week with the track conditions. Needless to say, I think this will create opportunities for a lot of drivers and perhaps some unexpected names to challenge for one of NASCAR’s crown jewels.

Cup Series – Charlotte Fast Facts

• Martin Truex Jr and Kevin Harvick are tied for the most wins (3) at Charlotte Motor Speedway among active drivers. Truex and Harvick have each won the 600 twice.
• Brad Keselowski (2), Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, and Austin Dillon are also former winners at Charlotte.
• Tyler Reddick has the best average finishing position (9.4) among active drivers despite just 4 career starts.
• Denny Hamlin is the defending winner of the Coca Cola 600. Hamlin has produced top 5 finishes in 11 of 31 career starts at Charlotte.
• Kyle Busch has a win and has recorded a top 5 finish in 5 of his last 6 starts at Charlotte.
• Harrison Burton finished 11th in his only start in the Coca Cola 600 last year.
• Hendrick Motorsports drivers have produced 4 of the 5 best average performance ratings since 2020 at Charlotte.
• The eventual race winner has started from the pole in 3 of the last 6 races at Charlotte

Dynamic Averages

If you look at our dynamic averages for intermediate tracks which is basically compiled of 1.5 mile speedways, then we should get a basic understanding of the drivers/teams that have excelled with the Next Gen Car at the 1.5 mile ovals. In our averages, Martin Truex Jr, Ross Chastain, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson are among the slender group of drivers that have posted a triple digit average rating. Truex actually leads all drivers with a 109.3 rating which is somewhat surprising considering the #19 team’s apparent struggles at the bigger tracks. Perhaps a driver that is worth mentioning as well is Bubba Wallace with an impressive 96.6 average rating. Wallace scored a win last year at Kansas which was his first non-superspeedway victory and he has finished 4th in both races this year on 1.5 mile surfaces which were at Las Vegas and Kansas. As a result, I think Wallace is among those that deserve dark horse consideration simply on statistics alone.

On the other side of the performance equation, I can’t help but notice the decline of Team Penske’s results at the intermediate style layouts. Early last year, Ryan Blaney was competing for wins on a near weekly basis. While Joey Logano has found a couple of wins, he has been far from consistent as well. In our data, the highest Team Penske driver is Ryan Blaney in 8th with an 88.2 average driver rating. I think that is directly correlated to the struggles of the organization which have routinely seen their cars lose speed over the long haul, a daunting concern for a 600 mile race. Because of these trends, I will likely keep an eye out for potential fade opportunities against the Team Penske camp until we see a trend reversal.

Betting Targets

It’s never fun to put one of the outright favorites as a primary betting target when it lacks value. However, I would be foolish to not consider Kyle Larson’s realistic chances for Sunday. Larson has been the guy to beat in recent weeks and I don’t think the metrics support how strong he has been at Charlotte. Larson won this race in 2021 and was leading in the final laps last year before several late cautions. Additionally, Larson has finished runner-up in both prior races this season on 1.5 mile tracks which were at Las Vegas and Kansas. On a green track that sometimes caters to different racing lines, I think Charlotte favors Larson’s strengths more than most would expect. For that reason, Larson is the clear betting favorite going into Sunday.

Behind Larson is where things get interesting, Martin Truex Jr and Ross Chastain are the guys that I believe deserve sharp appeal. As stated earlier, Truex has been much better than people would expect on these layouts and this race suits his long-run/equipment managing style. Meanwhile, Chastain has shown elite speed everywhere and led a race high 153 laps in this race one year ago. Obviously, I would throw Denny Hamlin into this category because I believe Hamlin has winning potential. However, I just think other guys have shown better elite speed that we look for in race winners.

For deeper options, look no further than Bubba Wallace. As mentioned earlier, Wallace has become a force on the 1.5 mile speedways and this will be another great opportunity for the #23 team. I would consider Wallace a play in all formats. Meanwhile, Alex Bowman and Chase Briscoe are some names that I believe are poised to outrun expectations and to warrant targets in H2H formats. Bowman is returning from injury for the first time in weeks and it appears that expectations are on par for a return from injury. However, Hendrick cars have been so strong at Charlotte that I believe Bowman has a higher ceiling than current betting odds suggest. Likewise, Chase Briscoe is in a similar position. Despite the Stewart-Haas Racing struggles, Briscoe is a lower-tier driver heading into the 600 where he has routinely exceeded expectations. In last year’s Coca Cola 600, Briscoe finished 4th after averaging a 104.2 driver rating. While I don’t think his ceiling is that high this week, I do believe he will outrun his current odds and provide sharp value in H2H formats.

2023 Draftkings Coca Cola 600 Optimal Lineup

2023 Coca Cola 600 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Larson +450 (1.5 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +900 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +1000 (.75 unit)
Bubba Wallace +2200 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Chase Elliott -130 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Alex Bomwan -115 over Daniel Suarez (2 units)
Chase Briscoe -145 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units)
Chase Briscoe +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace +250 wins Group C (Reddick, Harvick, Blaney)(1 unit)
Brad Keselowski +300 wins Group D (Logano, Suarez, Gibbs)(1 unit)
Bubba Wallace is Top Toyota/Chase Briscoe is Top Ford +12500 (.25 unit)