2023 Call811.com 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday April 15th, 2023. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Martinsville Speedway
TV: FS1

Following a rare off week, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series returns to action on Saturday with another night of short track racing at Martinsville Speedway in the running of the Call811.com 250. It has been two weeks since the Xfinity Series last competed at Richmond. In that race, Chandler Smith scored his first career Xfinity Series victory marking the 2nd time in the last 4 races a driver has become a first-time winner. Through 8 races, the Xfinity Series has produced 5 winners and that excludes some of the popular veterans like Justin Allgaier, Josh Berry, Cole Custer, and others. Needless to say, the Xfinity Series has incredible competition this season which means bettors will have to be on top of their game each week.

Racing at Martinsville is a combination of driver skill, setup/handling, and track position. In simple terms, you need that trifecta to get a chance at victory lane. In the Cup Series, we often witness long-run speed play an important role towards deciding winners at Martinsville. However, Xfinity Series competition has historically produced a large amount of cautions. In fact, there have been at least 10 cautions in 10 of the last 11 races at Martinsville in Xfinity Series competition. As a result, I don’t believe our handicapping formula should hang any weight towards those drivers that typically excel on the long-run which is strengths for drivers like Josh Berry and Justin Allgaier. Instead, this race will likely feature more short runs and will favor those drivers that can maintain track position.

On Friday, Xfinity Series teams were able to practice for 15 minutes. NASCAR divided the line-up into two separate groups and allowed each group 15 minutes of practice. Afterwards, Cole Custer earned the pole with a fast lap of 94.411mph. Custer was the standout of the afternoon in general. Before the pole winning lap, Custer also posted the best practice speed which included the best 5/10 lap averages. Needless to say, Custer has been the guy to beat since on-track activities began this week and will enter Saturday’s main event as the outright betting favorite. Perhaps the better question entering Saturday is who can we expect to challenge Custer at the front of the field and perhaps that is the more difficult conundrum because the #00 has been nothing short of dominant thus far.

Xfinity Series – Martinsville Notes

• Brandon Jones (defending winner) and Josh Berry (2021) are the only former winners at Martinsville competing on Saturday.
• Sam Mayer has finished 6th or better in each of his 3 career starts at Martinsville.
• Austin Hill finishes 9th and 4th in his first two career Xfinity Series starts at Martinsville last year.
• Ryan Truex finished 4th in this race last year with Joe Gibbs Racing. Truex will make another part-time start for JGR on Saturday behind the #19.
• Justin Allgaier has finished in the top 5 in 3 of his 5 career starts at Martinsville.
• Kenny Wallace’s win in 1994 remains the only win for a Ford driver in Xfinity Series competition at Martinsville in 39 races.
• There have been at least 10 cautions in 10 of the last 11 races at Martinsville.

Handicapping Strategy

I have absolutely no shame in admitting that I don’t feel like I have a great feel for Saturday’s Call811.com 250. In terms of the outright win, I can list several drivers that have the skillset and/or equipment to challenge on Saturday. However, I don’t have a lot of evidence that would justify a sharp betting selection towards a driver for the outright win. I really believe that Cole Custer has the skill set to control this race barring any mistakes but Custer has not exactly impressed thus far this season which remains a concern. Either way, I don’t think anyone can profess significant confidence towards futures bets for Saturday’s Call811.com 250. As a result, the majority of our risk will be tailored towards H2H bets.

Practice Observations

I mentioned earlier that Cole Custer stole the spotlight during Friday’s on-track activities. In practice, Custer led every statistical category which included 5, 10, 15, and 20 lap averages. Without question, Custer was in a class of his own and it will be interesting to see if he can hold that advantage for an entire 250 laps on Saturday. In terms of practice alone, Sammy Smith, Sam Mayer, and Brandon Jones were among the other names that were in relatively close proximity. While Custer may have swept the statistical averages, Smith, Mayer, and Jones were each inside the top 5 in every statistical category which should boost our expectations around those drivers. Personally, I did not see anyone else that showed race winning speed in practice. However, bettors should keep in mind that Friday’s practice was for a mere 15 minutes on track conditions that will be much different from when the green flag waves Saturday night. Therefore, I am not going to hang all of our expectations on practice alone.

Betting Targets

As stated above, I am being very conservative towards win predictions for Saturday’s Call811.com 250. I continue to lean towards this being the Cole Custer show but the Xfinity Series has been extremely competitive this season. As a result, I don’t think we can comfortably rely on just a single driver for the outright victory. Personally, I am looking at the H2H match-ups in an attempt to extract the most betting value this weekend. The drivers that I am looking to target mainly surround the group of Sam Mayer and Brett Moffitt. I believe both of those drivers have the biggest ceiling vs. current projections disparity.

Meanwhile, I believe Sammy Smith and Brandon Jones are excellent H2H options as well. Smith has been one of the best cars throughout the entire weekend while Jones is very undervalued based on current odds. Of course, we will need to wait until all potential match-ups are posted before finalizing our selections. While I would love to target the drivers noted above, our final decisions will be looking for the best match-up opportunities. If possible, I will likely be looking to fade guys like John Hunter Nemechek, Josh Berry, and Chandler Smith as I believe those drivers are overvalued in the odds department. Since the majority of H2H match-ups are not posted at the time of this writing, make sure to check back Saturday afternoon for added plays!

2023 Draftkings Call811.com 250 Optimal Lineup

2023 Call811.com 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Cole Custer +300 (1.5 units)
Sam Mayer +1400 (.75 unit)
Brandon Jones +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Parker Retzlaff -110 over Jeb Burton (3 units)
Sammy Smith -130 over Chandler Smith (2 units)
Sam Mayer -105 over Ryan Truex (2 units)
Sam Mayer +400 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)