2023 Cabo Wabo 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday August 5th, 2023. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Michigan International Speedway
TV: NBC

The Xfinity Series has produced several excellent races in recent weeks. Just a week ago, Road America produced several late race restarts and Sam Mayer was able to emerge from the chaos to capture the first victory of his Xfinity Series career. Mayer’s victory was an important one to solidify his playoff position as the close of the regular season fastly approaches. On Saturday, we have the potential for another outstanding race when the green flag waves for the running of the Cabo Wabo 250 at Michigan International Speedway.

Michigan is one of my favorite tracks for the “speed” factor. At times, Michigan has produced the fastest speeds in the sport especially since the horsepower is restricted at tracks like Talladega and Daytona. Michigan’s two-mile surface and multiple-groove track provides a spectator’s delight for high-speed racing. To make matters more intriguing, a couple of big names from the Cup Series will join the action on Saturday in the likes of Ty Gibbs and Ross Chastain. While Gibbs will return to the #19 at Joe Gibbs Racing, Chastain will make his first start of the season with Kaulig Racing as he reunites with his former team.

From a bettors perspective, Gibbs and Chastain’s presence will present a lot of bias in terms of betting odds. Gibbs has been phenomenal in Xfinity Series equipment throughout his career and Chastain is still one of the biggest names in the sport. However, I would like to point out that success at Michigan cannot be achieved from just a driver standpoint alone. Because of the size of the track and on-throttle time, the teams that produce the best pure “speed” will have the big advantage in this race. On Friday, we learned that the JR. Motorsports drivers may have that speed advantage by taking 3 of the top 4 positions in qualifying. Needless to say, we have plenty of options to consider going into Saturday and that is not just specific to overall race favorites.

Practice Observations

In Friday’s practice, I think it was pretty obvious that the JR. Motorsports cars had a slight speed advantage over the JGR Toyotas. Josh Berry and Justin Allgaier fired off really well and had some of the best lap times in the field. Both Berry and Allgaier qualified on the front row for Saturday’s Cabo Wabo 250 which is another strength indicator. Meanwhile, guys like Sam Mayer and Brandon Jones were also solid on the speed charts which proves that the JRM cars have some momentum going into the weekend.

With that being said, Ty Gibbs still had very impressive lap times especially after the first 5-6 laps on track. Gibbs is the defending winner at Michigan and the only former winner in Saturday’s field. Behind the top guys mentioned above, I would also mention both the likes of Austin Hill and Riley Herbst who had impressive practice sessions. Herbst has been showing really strong speed in the last few races so perhaps the #98 team has found some speed. Meanwhile, I would also say that Carson Hocevar looked fast again despite being in inferior equipment. Hocevar opened a lot of eyes with back to back quality performances at Darlington and Charlotte. Once again, Hocevar appears to be making the best of his opportunity and getting the best of his equipment in the #77 with Spire Motorsports.

Betting Targets

In terms of the outright victory, I have to put Ty Gibbs and Justin Allgaier at the top of my list as the most deserving favorites. Gibbs is the defending winner, in one of the best cars, and is perhaps the most talented driver in the field. Meanwhile, Allgaier has been kicking ass in recent weeks and let a victory get away last week at Road America. Due to the speed shown from the JRM cars on Friday, I think Allgaier is the most likely candidate to emerge from the JRM stable at a place like Michigan.

Unfortunately betting odds do not offer a ton of value for futures (win) bets. Therefore, I will probably have a very conservative betting approach to this event unless odds significantly change. In terms of H2H targets, I believe Cole Custer is going to be much better than his 13th place starting spot suggests. Custer posted really strong lap times in practice and his teammate Riley Herbst showed excellent speed as well. Another driver that I am targeting in H2H match-ups includes the #9 of Brandon Jones.

Admittedly, Jones is having a terrible season but he is also in very fast equipment. More importantly, Jones appears to have figured out this Michigan International Speedway by producing finishes of 6th or better in each of his last 3 starts. Based on current betting odds, Jones provides solid value against drivers with less higher ceilings. Lastly, Riley Herbst and Ryan Sieg may provide some betting or fantasy options as well. Herbst’s odds seem to be catching up with the speed shown on Friday however he appears to be trending towards an opportunity to have a strong performance.

Draftkings Cabo Wabo 250 Optimal Lineup

2023 Cabo Wabo 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Ty Gibbs +400 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +600 (.75 unit)
Brandon Jones +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Austin Hill -140 over Carson Hocevar (3 units)
Ty Gibbs -130 over John Hunter Nemechek (2 units)
Riley Herbst -140 over Daniel Hemric (2 units)
Riley Herbst +400 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)