2023 Buckle Up South Carolina 200 Race Picks

Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday May 12th, 2023. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: FS1

The Craftsman Truck Series will have the luxury of kicking off throwback weekend at Darlington Raceway on Friday. The “throwback” weekend has been around for several years but remains a fan favorite as it gives NASCAR teams the opportunity to celebrate the history of the sport and pay tribute to former paint schemes. More importantly, NASCAR’s throwback weekend marks the return to one of the most exciting venues in racing which is Darlington Raceway, AKA “The Track Too Tough To Tame.” Over the next 3 days, all of NASCAR’s major touring series will be in action starting with Friday’s Craftsman Truck Series’ running of the Buckle Up South Carolina 200.

Among the entries for Friday night’s Truck Series race includes the exciting additions of Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, and William Byron. Chastain has participated in 4 Truck Series races this year and has posted a best finish of 5th on two separate occasions. William Byron has started at least one Truck Series race in each of the past 3 years and has been quite competitive with each appearance. In fact, Byron has won two of his last 4 starts and will have the opportunity to pilot one of the better rides in the series in the #51 for Kyle Busch Motorsports. Meanwhile, Bubba Wallace will be making a relatively uncommon Truck Series appearance. Wallace competed full-time in the Truck Series from 2013-2014 but will be making just his 2nd start since 2019 behind the #1 for TRICON Garage.

Obviously, the Cup Series drivers should be somewhat of a threat for the Buckle Up South Carolina 200. Darlington Raceway is perhaps the most challenged oval in the sport. The track is uniquely narrow and has different characteristics on both ends of the track. More importantly, Darlington’s surface is extremely rigid which lacks grip and provokes significant tire wear. As a result, this is a track that definitely plays into the hands of the driver as opposed to those drivers in the better equipment. I have routinely stated that the top talents traditionally stand out at Darlington and I would expect that to be the case on Friday yet again.

Handicapping Strategy

As stated above, I will be targeting the better drivers this week and hold very minimal accountability towards the equipment factor. This is relatively unique because typically at the intermediate speedways we want to target those teams that have been showing the most speed at similar layouts. For Darlington, single lap speed is only a very small part of the handicapping equation. Short-run speed does have some value because these Truck Series races have nearly averaged 10 cautions per event over the last several years. However, lap times are going to fall off significantly with each passing lap and the drivers with the best car control should be able to salvage the best times as the tires continue to wear. Therefore, our focus will be on the better driving talents in this event.

Betting Targets

Practice and qualifying for the Buckle Up South Carolina 200 will not take place until Friday afternoon. I will provide updates and final thoughts following both sessions. However, practice sessions have provided minimal value this season because teams traditionally have 30 minutes or less to practice which limits observability to potential long-run speed. Additionally judging by current betting odds, I’m not convinced this will be the greatest betting opportunity on Friday. Betting odds are pretty top heavy in favor of William Byron for justifiable reasons. Unfortunately the Truck Series’ regulars have not shown enough consistency to get a solid expectation of those capable of challenging the Cup Series’ drivers.

We know Zane Smith, Ben Rhodes, and Ross Chastain are probably the most capable contenders. However, Smith has rarely run well at Darlington. Chastain and Niece Motorsports are struggling. Meanwhile, who knows what you may get with Ben Rhodes from week to week. Therefore, I will be extremely conservative towards futures (win) bets for this event and focus primarily on H2H targets. With that being said, a couple of my sharpest H2H targets this week include the likes of Grant Enfinger and Carson Hocevar. It may seem like we are playing catch-up with Enfinger after last week’s surprising victory in a rather bizarre race.

On the contrary, Enfinger has always run well at Darlington finishing 6th or better in all 4 career starts. With the way GMS Racing has looked thus far, Enfinger has another high upside outlook. Meanwhile, Carson Hocevar is a high-risk high-reward type of driver. If I can say anything about Hocevar, it is that he gets the best of his stuff on the lower grip tracks and Darlington suits his driving style. Obviously, you have to hope Hocevar avoids stupid mistakes but he should outrun all of the drivers in his current odds range. Another name to keep on your radar for H2H purposes is Parker Kligerman. Kligerman finished 5th in this race in 2021 and averaged a top 5 running position in last year’s race while finishing 6th. Kligerman has the sleeper appeal to yield solid value in H2H formats.

Practice Observations – Final Thoughts

Qualifying just concluded at Darlington Raceway for tonight’s Buckle Up South Carolina 200 and Corey Heim captured the pole for the 3rd time in his young career. Qualifying was sort of an anomaly from what we witnessed in practice which is probably a representative of single lap vs. long run speed. In practice, I thought Carson Hocevar and Christian Eckes were the two best overall trucks. William Byron and Bubba Wallace both displayed solid long run speed. Wallace actually led all drivers with the fastest 10 lap average over Rajah Caruth, Hocevar, Eckes, and Ty Majeski.

Personally, I don’t think we learned anything “new” from practice but I will say that I am extremely happy with our early betting targets. The only driver that we targeted early that seemingly struggled was Ross Chastain. Chastain and the #41 team have struggled for weeks now. I thought Chastain would overcome the equipment struggles at Darlington but perhaps the jury is still out on that question. Otherwise, I like our early betting targets and will add H2H match-ups if we see additional value once odds are posted again. If you are looking for potential fantasy options, Bubba Wallace, Zane Smith, and Corey LaJoie are some names that did not qualify well but I expect will move forward in race conditions. Potential fantasy sleepers also include both Hocevar and Kligerman due to their starting positions.

2023 Draftkings Buckle Up South Carolina 200 Optimal Lineup

2023 Buckle Up South Carolina 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Grant Enfinger +800 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +800 (.75 unit)
Carson Hocevar +2200 (.5 unit)
Parker Kligerman +5000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Carson Hocevar -115 over Corey LaJoie (3 units)
Parker Kligerman +600 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)