2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday September 16th, 2023. 6:30PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
TV: NBC

After two nights of playoff racing among NASCAR’s lower touring series, the Cup Series will close out the weekend with the running of the infamous Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on Saturday. The official start time has been moved up nearly a full hour to 6:30PM (EST) because the forecast has an increasing threat of rain in the late evening hours. The possibility of rain increases the chance of a shortened event which could have serious playoff implications based on the fact that 4 drivers will be eliminated after Saturday’s Bristol night race. Currently, there are some huge names on the edge of the cutoff line which includes the likes of Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr, and others. Needless to say, Bristol should deliver tons of excitement with short track racing and playoff implications on the line.

On Friday, Cup Series teams and drivers were able to hit the high banks of the half-mile bullring with back to back practice and qualifying sessions. At the end of on-track activities, Christopher Bell earned yet another pole with a fast lap of 126.997mph. Incredibly, Bell has won 3 straight pole awards to start off the playoffs. However, the #20 team has not necessarily backed up their pole winning efforts with equally impressive results. Bell had numerous issues at Darlington which led to a 23rd place finish and did not really show winning speed last week at Kansas despite bringing home an 8th place result. As things currently stand, Bell sits 10th in the playoff standings and will definitely need a quality run and/or avoid any bad finishes to keep his championship hopes alive.

As many are aware, the Bass Pro Shops Bristol Night Race has been the lone event at Bristol on the concrete surface for the last 3 years since the spring race was moved to the dirt surface. As a result, we don’t have a lot of comparable in-season performance data to observe going into this event. In both my Trucks Series and Xfinity Series previews this week, I mentioned that this race can be relatively difficult to predict if we simply look at comparable venues. There are simply not many venues that are similar to Bristol. However, that does not mean that we still don’t have ways to handicap Bristol either. In each of our previews this week, we have looked for specific driving styles to help our handicapping selections and so far we are 2 for 2 on the weekend. Luckily for the Cup Series, most drivers have a lot of experience at Bristol which should further help our handicapping and hopefully produce another winning card!

Handicapping and Betting Strategy

The one very frustrating component of handicapping Bristol Motor Speedway is the fact a driver’s chances can be ruined with the smallest mistakes. A simple flat tire, pit road penalty, or other issue can put a driver several laps down or buried in the back of the field. Even with a fast car, passing can be very difficult at this half-mile bullring. Therefore if track position is lost, it could be detrimental to a drivers chances of winning or being on the winning side of match-ups. With that being said, I have been very conservative with all of our betting cards this week. In fact, I was forced to produce smaller than expected betting cards in each of the prior races this weekend simply because odds were dismal. Despite what odds may offer on Saturday, bettors should remain very conservative for the factors listed above.

If you happened to catch my prior previews this week, I emphasized the importance of driving “styles” for handicapping a place like Bristol especially in the lower series where experience is limited. Luckily, we have track history to observe for the Cup Series as most drivers have numerous starts at Bristol. However, I still think it is important to look for those driving characteristics which may not always show in historical data. The drivers that have shown solid signs of producing speeds at venues where rear grip is minimal (E.g. Darlington, Homestead, Richmond, North Wilkesboro), should be given consideration because drivers will have minimal rear grip with each passing lap at Bristol despite the relatively high banking of this particular short track. Therefore, we must consider several different handicapping angles into our overall formula this week.

Cup Series stats at Bristol

• Kyle Busch ranks 5th all-time with 8 career wins at Bristol which is the most among active drivers.
• Kevin Harvick (3), Brad Keselowski (3), Denny Hamlin (2), Joey Logano (2), Kyle Larson, and Chris Buescher are also former winners at Bristol.
• Chase Elliott has the best career average finishing position (12.3) among all active drivers.
• Kyle Larson has finished 1st and 5th in the two races at Bristol. Larson also has produced an incredible streak of 100+ average driving ratings in 7 of the last 8 races at Bristol.
• Kevin Harvick has finished 3rd or better in 3 of his last 4 starts at Bristol.
• William Byron has finished 3rd in each of the last two races at Bristol.
• Statistically, Bristol has been one of Martin Truex Jr’s worst tracks yielding a 20.6 average finishing position in his last 10 starts.
• Ryan Blaney has just 4 top 10 finishes in 14 career starts at Bristol.
• Ford drivers have won 3 of the last 4 races at Bristol. Chris Buescher is the defending winner of the Bass Pro Shops Bristol Night Race.
• There have been a minimum of 8 cautions in 18 of the last 19 races at Bristol.

Dynamic Averages

I am not going to spend a ton of time going through dynamic averages this week. However, I would encourage anyone performing their own handicapping to place close attention to performance at the short tracks this year. While Bristol is obviously a different type of track, the short track package for this Next Gen Car has definitely displayed some undeniable trends. The Hendrick Motorsports cars started the year extremely strong at all the shorter layouts but that has quickly transitioned in favor of the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers, specifically the duo of Martin Truex Jr and Denny Hamlin. I would also note that both Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski have produced really strong results on the shorter layouts as well which correlates with strong historical narratives for both veterans as well.

Practice Observations

Teams and drivers were split into two groups during practice and qualifying on Friday which has been the format all year. I mention the format because oftentimes this can lead to biased results on paper if one particular group had more favorable track conditions. In the opening group, Kyle Larson and Ty Gibbs clearly stood out among the competition. Gibbs was really consistent on the stopwatch while Larson had more of the overall fast laps. Personally, I thought all of the Toyotas showed solid speed in both groups with Gibbs and Bell possibly being the best of the bunch. In Group B, William Byron displayed the most speed by a good margin. As I mentioned earlier, Byron has been rock solid in the Next Gen Car at the short tracks and has produced two 3rd place results in the last two races at Bristol. Needless to say, Byron is trending in a positive direction once again. Behind Byron, Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick were among a few drivers that put together really long runs and looked solid throughout the entire stint. I would also give notable mentions to the speed from the likes of AJ Allmendinger and Alex Bowman as both guys appeared to be trending above typical expectations.

Betting Targets

I feel like the front of the field will feature a razor thin margin between guys like Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and William Byron who are checking all the right boxes going into this event. Based on all the handicapping methods that I mentioned above, I believe Kyle Larson is the clear favorite if you want to choose a horse among the top names. Larson nearly wrecked during his qualifying lap resulting in a 36th place starting position which means he odds are actually decent based on the result. I believe Larson can be targeted in all formats and is likely a must-start in DFS formats where place-differential is critical. Aside from Larson, I would actually lean towards William Byron as my 2nd favorite option despite the speed shown by the Toyotas. Byron has been good everywhere this season and based on his prior performances at Bristol, I just think his ceiling is sky high.

As I stated in the beginning of this preview, we must be relatively conservative with all bets this week in terms of overall exposure. In effort to bring more value to betting cards, I do believe options like Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott bring solid value as intermediate dark horses. Elliott proved his season was not done last week at Kansas by showing excellent speed and he has always run well at Bristol. The same could be said for Keselowski who has been one of the best performers, along with teammate Chris Buescher, during the 2nd half of the season. RFK Racing has a ton of momentum and I believe Keselowski is overdue for a victory.

As we look deeper into the field for H2H and prop specific targets, Ricky Stenhouse Jr is a guy that has always shown speed at Bristol despite usually providing boom or bust results. I would not trust Stenhouse in H2H formats but he could be used as a high yield prop option. Carson Hocevar and Todd Gilliland are bottom-tier options that have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. Hocevar showed solid speed in practices and I continue to be impressed with how quickly he has adjusted to the Cup Series car. Outside of the RFK Racing Fords, the blue circles have not looked great thus far this week. Therefore, I believe Hocevar is probably the sharper pick over the two options. Lastly, I would also mention the likes of Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, and Erik Jones as guys that should provide solid value in H2H match-ups based on current odds.

2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Optimal Lineup



2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Race Picks

*Final*
Kyle Larson +650 (1 unit)
Brad Keselowski +900 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +1200 (.75 unit)
Kyle Busch +1800 (.5 unit)
Kevin Harvick +2000 (.5 unit)


H2H Match-ups and Props

Chase Elliott -115 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Tyler Reddick -125 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Erik Jones -115 over Aric Almirola (2 units)
Kevin Harvick +250 wins Group C (Truex, Chastain, Logano)(1 unit)
Erik Jones +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)