2023 Baptist Health Cancer Care 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday October 21st, 2023. 12:00PM (EST)
Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway
TV: FS1

For the first time in several weeks, NASCAR will entertain race fans with a double-header on Saturday with races between the Craftsman Truck Series and Xfinity Series. In the opening act, the Craftsman Truck Series will host their final race before the championship finale at Phoenix in two weeks. Thus far, Corey Heim is the only driver that is locked into the championship finale while 7 additional drivers are hoping to keep their championship hopes alive. As we prepare for a full afternoon of racing, let’s begin by breaking down the running of the Baptist Health Cancer Care 200 in the Craftsman Truck Series.

There are many championship story lines for the Truck Series going into Homestead. Among the most noteworthy includes the fact that both Zane Smith and Ben Rhodes are outside of the cutoff line. In fact, Smith is in a must-win situation due to the fact that he cannot mathematically get into the championship on points due to DNFs in the prior two races. Both Smith and Rhodes were big favorites to win the title this year because they have both won championships over the last two seasons. Instead, the odds are currently not in their favor unless they can deliver magic at Homestead.

Fortunately, Homestead-Miami Speedway is considered a drivers’ race track where the driver can usually make more speed than the equipment they are piloting. The track’s surface produces an incredible amount of tire wear which means single lap speed is worthless unless drivers can manage their tires and carry speed in low-grip racing conditions. Because of these characteristics of Homestead-Miami Speedway, bettors should keep the top driving talents on their betting radar as opposed to considering the equipment factor like we do at a lot of the other 1.5 mile intermediate layouts!

Practice and Qualifying Observations

On Friday, Nick Sanchez emerged as the fastest man in qualifying with a fast lap of 167.084mph. Sanchez has been really good in qualifying this year and Friday’s pole award was his 5th of the season. Sanchez has been fast throughout the year especially on the 1.5 mile speedways but is still looking for his first win. With that being said, this is also Sanchez’s first career start at Homestead so it will be a challenging task for the youngster to keep that speed throughout race trim on Saturday. In fact, I would not pay much attention to any of the qualifying results on Saturday because single-lap speeds, at a place where lap times will fall off more than 2 seconds, can be very misleading.

In Friday’s practice which may shed some light towards race speed, I thought Zane Smith and Carson Hocevar were among the top guys in race trim. Smith fired off really well but did not run as many laps as the others which could be a good or a bad sign. Meanwhile, Hocevar is among the top talents in the series and everyone should expect him to run well at a place where drivers will need to be a wheel-man. Behind those guys, Corey Heim and Nick Sanchez were a couple of additional names that looked really strong. Sanchez actually had some of the best long-run speed leading the 15/20/25 consecutive lap average categories. Therefore, perhaps the youngster does have the long-run pace to be considered. Deeper into the field, there were not many observations that I believe are noteworthy. However, I will say that the likes of Dean Thompson and Bayley Currey appeared to be much faster than where they have normally run this season.

Betting Targets

I’m trying to keep this preview relatively straightforward since I also have to provide insight into the Xfinity Series race later Saturday afternoon. With that being said, I did not outline every handicapping angle that I looked into this week. I did look into performance this year on similar track surfaces, 1.5 mile speedway performance, and a few other smaller angles. In a collection of all of those handicapping angles, I’m not sure if anyone really stands out among the favorites. Corey Heim has easily performed the best this season especially at low-grip layouts. However, Hocevar has been really good on 1.5 mile surfaces. Ty Majeski won this race last year and Zane Smith seems to always find a way to the front where driver input makes the most difference. As a result, I’m not finding a lot of value in terms of futures (win) bets.

If I was forced to pick someone for the outright victory, I would lean towards Hocevar and Heim. However, I am trying to find better sharp value which means H2H match-ups will likely offer our best paths to profit. For H2H targets specifically, I believe that betting cards should center around the likes of Christian Eckes, Dean Thompson, and Trevor Bayne are the guys that have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. Bayne did not get many laps in practice because he felt a vibration in the #25 truck. The team elected to forego qualifying in order to diagnose the issue. While Rackley W.A.R. has not produced winning speed in the #25 this year, Bayne is criminally undervalued based on current betting odds and may be the best H2H option on the board.

2023 Baptist Health Cancer Care 200 Optimal Lineup

2023 Baptist Health Cancer Care 200 Betting Picks

*Final*

Carson Hocevar +350 (1 unit)
Nick Sanchez +900 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Trevor Bayne -115 over Rajah Caruth (2 units)