2023 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday October 8th, 2023. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL
TV: NBC

On Sunday, the Cup Series returns to the home of NASCAR at Charlotte Motor Speedway for an elimination race at the ROVAL. Last week, Ryan Blaney joined William Byron as the two drivers that have already secured their spot in the Round of 8 thanks to wins at Texas and most recently Talladega. For the remaining 10 drivers still alive in the championship fight, Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 will be a critical points event considering all the drivers around the cutoff line are within just a few points of each other. Meanwhile, Kyle Busch and the #8 team are in a must-win situation to keep their playoff hopes alive!

While Busch’s must-win situation seems daunting, I would remind everyone that Christopher Bell survived a must-win situation at last year’s Bank of America ROVAL 400. Bell and the #20 team took tires during a late caution and was able to outduel Kevin Harvick to score an unlikely victory. The win kept Bell alive in the championship fight and he ended up making it to the Championship 4 at Phoenix. Therefore, I don’t believe bettors should discount Busch’s chances on Sunday especially when you consider he has finished 3rd and 4th in his last two starts at the ROVAL.

Earlier today, Busch qualified in the 5th position which proves he has the speed to contend at the ROVAL this weekend and perhaps deserves dark horse consideration. In qualifying, Tyler Reddick emerged with the pole award with a fast lap of 102.839mph. Reddick has arguably been the best road course driver in the Cup Series with the Next Gen Car and Saturday’s pole winning lap will make him the outright betting favorite going into Sunday. Before we focus on which drivers deserve betting consideration, let’s first take a look at performances this season at the road courses which should give us a strong baseline for our expectations on Sunday.

Road Course Dynamic Averages

This weekend’s return to the ROVAL will mark the 6th road course event of the season in the Cup Series. Fortunately, our dynamic averages for the road courses include the last 5 races at road course venues which gives us a perfect picture of performance during the 2023 season at the road course venues. As you will see in our analytics, Michael McDowell somewhat surprisingly has produced the best average rating (107.1) this season at the road courses. As many are aware, McDowell had a breakthrough win at Indianapolis earlier this year but his stats prove that his performance has been better than everyone throughout the season. Behind McDowell, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and William Byron are the other 3 drivers that have also produced triple digit averages.

Based on the analytics, I would also mention that Martin Truex Jr, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Larson have also produced respectable results this season and all of those names have prestigious road course pedigrees. Beyond the well-known top drivers, I would also point to the likes of AJ Allmendinger and Ty Gibbs for their solid 90+ average driver ratings as well. Many realize that Allmendinger is one of the best road course talents in the sport but has not always had the best Cup Series’ equipment to challenge for victories. While I would not label Kaulig Racing as a top team in the garage, Allmendinger has proved the ability to run upfront in the Next Gen Car and he has been very good at the ROVAL where he won 4 straight Xfinity Series races from 2018-2022.

Practice Observations

There were a lot of interesting aspects to Saturday’s practice which includes the fact that Bubba Wallace posted the fastest lap of the session at 102.295mph. Wallace has struggled at road courses throughout his career but has shown notable improvement thus far in 2023. Aside from Wallace’s fast lap, Tyler Reddick was the clear winner of Saturday’s session. Before winning the pole, Reddick posted the 2nd fastest lap in practice and also led all drivers in both the best 5 and 10 consecutive lap categories. As a result, Reddick has clearly earned the title of the outright favorite going into Sunday.

Behind Reddick, I would make a declaration that all of the Toyotas were really fast. Reddick, Wallace, Martin Truex Jr, Ty Gibbs, and Denny Hamlin were all the fastest in the 5 lap categories and it was similar Toyota dominance among the drivers that completed longer runs. As a result, I think you have to give a strong nod of the cap towards the Toyota teams this weekend because they appeared to have a clear speed edge. Behind the Toyotas, I personally thought the lap times of AJ Allmendinger, Kyle Busch, and Chris Buescher were all in the competitive ranges. However, in observing all lap times, it was clear that everyone was falling off more than the Toyotas and it will be interesting to see if that carries over into race conditions.

Betting Targets

In terms of betting targets, Tyler Reddick appears to be in a potentially dominating position going into Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400. Reddick’s lap times were by far better than the rest of the competition and we have seen Reddick dominate at the road courses on weekends where he has shown similar results going into the race. While I believe Martin Truex Jr and Denny Hamlin will likely be frontrunners based on all of our handicapping angles, I’m not sure if I could justify their current betting odds based on prior performances at the ROVAL where both drivers have produced modest results.

For the outright win, I may take a few gambles on guys like Christopher Bell, Chris Buescher, and even AJ Allmendinger who have much better ROI. With that being said, I do believe that H2H match-ups will yield the sharpest opportunities. The drivers that I have pegged for H2H purposes include Alex Bowman and Chris Buescher among others. Bowman has the best average finishing position (6.0) among all drivers at the ROVAL and has never finished outside the top 10 in 4 career starts. Meanwhile, Buescher is having a breakout season, has produced solid road course results, and has posted two straight top 5 finishes in his last two starts at the ROVAL. As a result, I believe both Bowman and Buescher provide confident H2H opportunities.

Further down the talent totem pole, I would consider AJ Allmendinger and Ty Gibbs as potential H2H targets with perhaps better upside in prop bet formats. Kyle Larson is a near must-start in fantasy formats from the 36th starting position. Larson hit the wall in practice which resulted in the team missing their qualifying effort. However, Larson is a former winner at the ROVAL and should produce fantasy value barring additional troubles. Lastly, I also have Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric listed as bottom-tier talents that likely have higher upside than their performance has shown thus far this weekend. Both drivers are starting towards the rear of the field with most of the Ford teams but should race better on Sunday.

2023 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Betting Picks

*Final*

Tyler Reddick +400 (1.5 units)
Kyle Larson +1400 (.5 unit)
Denny Hamlin +1600 (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +3300 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Alex Bowman +125 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Ryan Blaney +100 over Austin Cindric (2 units)
Kevin Harvick -120 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)