2023 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday September 24th, 2023. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: USA Network

NASCAR Cup Series playoffs will continue on Sunday with the opening race in the Round of 12 at Texas Motor Speedway for the running of the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400. Last week two former champions, by way of Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick, were eliminated in the opening round of the playoffs in relatively surprising fashion. However, the forthcoming Round of 12 will not give any drivers any time to relax. In fact, the Round of 12 has typically been the biggest wildcard stretch in the playoffs with visits at Talladega and the ROVAL on the horizon. While those races could be considered wildcard events, this Sunday’s return to Texas will be very important for the playoff drivers looking to secure some much needed points before those wildcard events.

Earlier today, Bubba Wallace earned his first pole of the season and just the 2nd pole of his career by turning in a fast lap of 188.337mph in qualifying. However, both practice and qualifying turned into a treacherous ordeal on Saturday. Several drivers struggled in turns 1-2 which was the trouble zone in today’s Xfinity Series race as well. Turns 1-2 simply does not provide a lot of banking and the outer groove of the turns is rarely used. Therefore when drivers slip up the track, they have a hard time keeping the car out of the fence which was a theme all afternoon in the Xfinity Series.

Before the Xfinity Series race, I spoke towards the challenges of Texas Motor Speedway specifically in turns 1-2. Since the reconfiguration in 2017, Texas has produced a one lane groove throughout turns 1-2 and has produced uninspiring racing action as drivers/teams simply fight for track position. With these Next Gen Cars, I expect another 400 mile battle for track position on Sunday and perhaps a lot of chaos with hot/slick track conditions. From a betting standpoint, our handicapping formula is relatively similar to other 1.5 mile venues. We will observe the 1.5 mile in-season performance data courtesy of our dynamic averages, review track history since the reconfiguration, and perhaps give some credit towards practice observations before finalizing our selections.

Texas by the numbers

• Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 4 career wins at Texas.
• Kevin Harvick (3), Denny Hamlin, Austin Dillon, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, and Tyler Reddick (defending winner) are also former winners at Texas.
• Tyler Reddick has the best average finishing position (6.8) among all active drivers.
• Ryan Blaney has finished 8th or better in 8 of the last 9 races at Texas.
• Christopher Bell has finished 3rd in 2 of his 4 career starts at Texas.
• Brad Keselowski has finished 9th or better in each of the last 4 races at Texas.
• Despite winning at Texas in 2021, Kyle Larson owns an unimpressive 17.8 average finishing position through 15 career starts at Texas.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 3 of the last 4 races at Texas.
• There have been at least 10 cautions in 4 of the last 5 races at Texas. Last year’s race produced a record 16 cautions.

Dynamic Averages

Luckily, I don’t have to do any ad-hoc performance metrics this week because our dynamic averages for the intermediate layouts already provides data for the last 5 races on 1.5 mile speedways with the Next Gen Car. As you will see in the data, William Byron and Kyle Larson have been the top duo this season at the 1.5 mile venues. However, the data does not always tell the entire story. Both Byron and Larson were really strong earlier in the year and while they have still been strong at the 1.5 mile venues, the Toyota drivers appear to have found some better speed throughout the year. Notice the names like Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick who have both produced plus 100 average ratings meanwhile Bubba Wallace, Martin Truex, and Christopher Bell are all within the top 10 performance averages. Therefore, I think we can clearly state a performance trend in favor of the Toyotas.

Practice Observations

If I am being brutally honest, I’m not sure if we really learned anything from practice because most cars only ran a handful of laps. Group A had practice come to a stop when Christopher Bell spun which may have ruined some drivers’ attempts at longer runs. Michael McDowell, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch all laid down fast laps on their first timed laps which held up throughout the practice session. However, those laps were likely a product of track condition opposed to raw speed. Of the cars that did perform longer runs that would indicate potential race speed, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson appeared to be the best of both groups. Erik Jones and AJ Allmendinger would be additional names that I believe exceeded expectations. Ironically, both Jones and Allmendinger have been performing really well over the last few races and perhaps deserve some consideration in H2H formats.

Betting Targets

Based on the fact that I expect track position to be the difference in performance vs. results on Sunday, I am going to continue to revert to a conservative betting approach. Betting odds have been difficult, in general, in recent weeks and these 1.5 mile venues do not offer high probability plays because everyone is running razor thin margins in terms of lap speeds. In terms of selections, we could possibly fade drivers like Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, and even Ryan Blaney who have excellent statistics results at Texas but have been fading significantly in the performance department at 1.5 mile venues. If we can find opposing match-ups with sharper selections, I believe fading these guys could be profitable.

Obviously, I think it would be wise to have a few Toyotas on betting cards for Sunday. The problem is trying to find enough betting value to support the selections. Once again, betting odds are relatively grim among the top dozen or so drivers. Denny Hamlin has been on fire in recent weeks and could be a legitimate target as the overall favorite. Meanwhile guys like Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace, and Christopher Bell offer some intermediate appeal from the non-heavy favorites. Reddick ended a mile drought at Kansas two weeks ago and enters this Sunday with momentum along with the fact he is the defending winner of the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400.

Based on poor qualifying runs, I believe Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott are favorite type names that can be used as strong pivots in fantasy racing formats where place differential will be important. Strictly on the betting side, I really like the speed of Erik Jones for H2H purposes. Jones is paired against mediocre type talent and the #43 team has been showing really good speed in recent weeks. From the 12th starting position, Jones has the potential to hang around the top of the field all evening on Sunday. Additional options that I will be looking to target include the likes of Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch are a few names that could have sneaky high ceilings this week. I know it’s rare to consider Busch anything but a favorite. However, Rowdy’s performance has been hit or miss this season and his odds are surprisingly decent. The #8 has the winning setup from a year ago and while that is not enough to warrant a selection, I thought Busch was very close to having “elite” style speed in practice. Meanwhile, Keselowski is a guy that I have been targeting for weeks because the speed is there and it only seems to be a matter of time before Keselowski earns his first victory as an owner.

2023 Draftkings Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Betting Picks

*Final*

Tyler Reddick +1000 (.75 unit)
William Byron +1100 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +1200 (.75 unit)
Brad Keselowski +1600 (.5 unit)
Chase Elliott +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Bubba Wallace -125 over Joey Logano (3 units)
Ross Chastain -130 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Brad Keselowski -110 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Carson Hocevar -110 over Aric Almirola (2 units)