2023 Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday September 23rd, 2023. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: USA Network

Last week Justin Allgaier busted down the doors to the Xfinity Series playoffs by capturing a victory at Bristol Motor Speedway. Allgaier entered the playoffs one of the championship favorites and his victory ensured he will be safe for the next two races by automatically advancing to the Round of 8. Allgaier was expected to be among the lead favorites to fight for a championship this season alongside John Hunter Nemechek and Austin Hill. However, Hill had a bad result at Bristol after tangling with teammate Sheldon Creed. Needless to say, the Xfinity Series playoffs have already produced some drama and that should continue on Saturday with the running of the Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 at Texas Motor Speedway!

As many are aware, Texas Motor Speedway is an intermediate 1.5 mile speedway that was reconfigured back in 2017. Since the reconfiguration, the speedway has faced minimal wear which has left a high grip level that produces high speeds. The track has also produced some boring races since the reconfiguration, likely due to the changes in turns 1-2 which have produced a one lane racing groove. While we don’t need to go into great detail the reconfiguration challenges, bettors should understand that Texas produces a high grip level that produces a lot of speed and track position is very important due to the difficulty of passing.

From a handicapping perspective, we are always looking for quality speed components any time we are handicapping a 1.5 mile speedway. In today’s NASCAR, these intermediate layouts allow for the biggest organizational advantages to show. For this week’s race, I believe bettors should play close attention to the performance indicators from the Kansas and Charlotte races earlier this year. Those two tracks are the most similar to Texas Motor Speedway based on where the Xfinity Series has competed this season. Therefore, we will take a look at performance trends at the 1.5 mile speedways, look at historical trends/stats at Texas, and consider practice observations on Saturday before finalizing our betting thoughts for the weekend.

Handicapping Notes

If you consider the prior performances at 1.5 mile speedways like Kansas and Charlotte, we can quickly identify the fact that Justin Allgaier and John Hunter Nemechek have been the best in the series. Allgaier won at Charlotte with Nemechek finishing in the runner-up position. Just recently at Kansas two weeks, Nemechek dominated the Kansas Lottery 300 by leading 154 of 200 laps en route to victory. For this week’s races, I would likely give Nemechek the nod again based on the performance at Kansas combined with the fact JHN won at Texas in 2021. Meanwhile, Allgaier has only produced 5 top 5 finishes in 25 career starts at Texas.

When we talk about 1.5 mile speedway performance, my handicapping notes show that Austin Hill is the driver that also deserves overall favorite betting treatment. Hill has finished in the top 5 in each of the last two races at 1.5 mile speedways and he also won at Las Vegas earlier this year which is also a 1.5 mile speedway. Hill also finished in the top 5 in both races at Texas last season with a runner-up result last fall. Based on current betting odds, Hill is getting twice the value of both Allgaier and Nemechek. As a result, I think he is a must-play simply on analytics and perhaps is a driver that you would want to jump on before practice/qualifying activities early Saturday.

Obviously, we should have a better idea of which teams are not completely “missing” on the setups this week after Saturday’s practice/qualifying efforts. I typically say that practice speeds at the 1.5 mile speedways typically don’t tell you ‘who to bet’ but rather ‘who to avoid.’ As a result, I want to ensure that we factor in practice observations before finalizing our betting picks this week. I will update the practice section below once on-track activities conclude on Saturday. A few weeks back at Kansas, Sam Mayer and Sheldon Creed were among the names that were trending in the right direction on most of our handicapping metrics yet both drivers showed subpar speed throughout the entire weekend at Kansas. Therefore, I think practice speeds will be somewhat more important than normal this week.

Betting Targets

Keep in mind, the betting targets that I am describing now are my picks “prior” to Saturday’s on-track activities. I will update everyone with final thoughts later on Saturday after practice/qualifying in-case anything changes with these targets. With that stated, Austin Hill is among my favorite drivers to bet among the favorites going into Saturday. As stated earlier, Hill has more than twice the value despite having identical stats to both Allgaier and Nemechek at the 1.5 mile speedways. I also believe Hill could be targeted in H2H match-ups rather aggressively compared against guys like Josh Berry and Sam Mayer who are receiving similar ranged betting odds.

Another option outside of the Nemechek/Allgaier combination includes Cole Custer. Despite what the stats may suggest, Custer has been extremely strong during the 2nd half of the season and has been looking stronger with each passing week. Custer is a former (2018) Texas winner and seems to have the momentum playing into his favor. Looking deeper into the field and deeper into the betting odds, Brett Moffitt and Kaz Grala are a couple of the names that have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggests. Both drivers are considered lower-tier talents but have shown top 10 speed throughout the year at the 1.5 mile speedways. As a result, I think both drivers produce both betting and fantasy value going into the weekend.

Practice Observations/Final Thoughts

Update: Practice and qualifying recently concluded at Texas Motor Speedway. The winner of the early portion of the afternoon goes to Justin Allgaier. Allgaier posted the fastest lap in practice and then backed up his efforts by winning the pole with a speed of 185.008mph. Allgaier led a group of JR Motorsports cars that all produced quality speed and put all 4 cars into the top 8 qualifying positions. Aside from Allgaier, I would probably list Josh Berry as the best on the stopwatch from the J.R Motorsports brigade. Since all the JR Motorsports cars fired off well, it will be interesting to see if the long-run speed matches the short-run speed shown during this afternoon’s on-track sessions.

Outside of the JR Motorsports cars, there were several drivers within striking distance including several of the guys we had on our radar in Austin Hill, Cole Custer, and John Hunter Nemechek. Nemechek appeared to get better with every lap through today’s practice. Meanwhile, Trevor Bayne was a name that also appeared to have really good speed in the #19 for Joe Gibbs Racing. Honestly, I’m not sure if practice speeds really changed any of my prior opinions. Perhaps Allgaier deserves more consideration for his performance earlier today but his betting odds will also be negatively impacted. With that being said, Layne Riggs and Chandler Smith from the Kaulig Racing stable are a pair of guys that I will be looking for potential H2H match-ups. Both cars showed really good speed and Riggs is relatively unknown in the sport. Therefore, I’m hoping we can target both drivers in advantageous match-ups!

2023 Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Betting Picks

*Final*

Austin Hill +650 (1 unit)
Cole Custer +800 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Brett Moffitt -130 over Ryan Sieg (3 units)
John Hunter Nemechek -130 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Austin Hill -115 over Cole Custer (2 units)
Chandler Smith +115 over Brandon Jones (2 units)