2023 Ambetter Health 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday March 19th, 2023. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
TV: FOX

NASCAR’s Cup Series will go mini-superspeedway racing on Sunday with the running of the Ambetter 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. As many are aware, Atlanta Motor Speedway was reconfigured and repaved prior to the 2022 season. In both of last year’s races, the racing product produced by Atlanta’s reconfiguration resembled superspeedway racing as opposed to what you would expect from traditional 1.5 mile ovals. Needless to say, this Sunday’s main event is expected to be one of those wild-card types of events in the Cup Series where a larger quantity of drivers have an opportunity at victory. We will discuss the drivers that should contend and discuss the best betting options for the Ambetter 400 at Atlanta!

In the last two weeks, William Byron has scored back to back wins at Las Vegas and Phoenix. Byron and teammate Kyle Larson were both the fastest drivers at both of those venues but it was the #24 that capitalized on opportunities to get the checkered flag. This week Byron returns to Atlanta as the defending winner of the Ambetter 400 coming from his win last year with a rare opportunity, in today’s age of racing, to make a run at 3 straight wins. Perhaps more importantly than the speed shown by Larson and Byron in recent weeks is the fact that Hendrick Motorsports won both of the Atlanta races last year between Byron and Chase Elliott. If you expand the scope even wider, Chevrolet teams specifically have won every race this season and have also won the last 6 races at superspeedway venues if you include Atlanta into that population. I don’t think that is a trend that bettors should ignore this week and I will dive into reasons to trust that trend later in our preview.

Obviously prior trends do not guarantee any results especially at a speedway where so many things like track position, volatility, and drafting will play into the outcome. Just like we have witnessed the last two weeks, the winner could easily be decided by a late race caution and/or pit strategy. In last year’s races at the newly reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway, there were a total of 24 cautions between both races and a track record 46 lead changes in last year’s Ambetter 400 alone. Therefore, bettors must keep an open mind towards betting options this week and put extra focus on limiting unnecessary risk by overbetting. With those things in mind, let’s shift our focus towards some of the historical trends in the Next Gen Car at the superspeedway to identify drivers that have routinely performed well at these events.

Dynamic Averages

If you look at our dynamic averages which shows trends from the last 5 superspeedway races, then we have names like Erik Jones, William Byron, Ross Chastain, and Denny Hamlin who are at the top of the list. Chase Elliott is actually on top of the list with a 102.7 average rating but Elliott remains sidelined with a leg injury at least for the next 4 races. Still if you look at this list, guys like Erik Jones, Ross Chastain, and Aric Almirola may be among the names that you would not initially think of when it comes to superspeedway style racing. However, those drivers have performed extremely well at these events and consistently run towards the front of the field regardless of final finishing positions. Meanwhile some of the known superspeedway names like Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, and others have shown unimpressive results from a holistic standpoint. Needless to say, these are some things that we should keep in mind when evaluating risk vs. reward with our final betting selections.

Handicapping Strategy

The basis of my handicapping strategy this week will be my normal approach towards ROI by ensuring our selections bring value to our overall lineup mixed with the sharper angle that I am expecting a less chaotic return to Atlanta. During last year’s race, Atlanta was brand new. Despite being just a year old, we have already witnessed slightly different racing through Saturday’s Truck and Xfinity Series’ events. Handling is becoming a bigger factor and it appears that it is harder for drivers to keep a flat throttle on the bottom of the race track. I imagine that will only get worse as this track continues to age and wear. As a result, I am expecting less side by side racing compared to last year which could open the possibility of some smaller groups that are able to get in front of the “pack.” If this situation unfolds even to a limited degree, I believe it will favor the drivers that you see in the dynamic averages above and those cars with the outright speed, AKA Chevrolets from everything I have seen this season. Therefore, don’t be surprised if several bowties are on my betting lineup.

Betting Targets

Cup Series teams were not given any practice time this weekend. However, Team Penske did show out in qualifying on Saturday by taking the top 3 starting positions. Joey Logano won the pole with a fast lap of 177.374mph. Honestly, Team Penske has been great in qualifying this year so their success on Saturday was not necessarily surprising. With that being said, Team Penske and Ford cars in general have struggled mightily in recent weeks after the green flag waves so it will be interesting to see if they can keep their race pace on Sunday at a more equal style of racing between manufacturers.

In reality, I don’t believe qualifying results hold much weight towards providing betting guidance this week. I’m sticking with the fact that I believe this race will have more single file racing with an importance geared towards handling which should produce racing like we used to see at Daytona in the early 2000s. With that expectation, I believe the drivers that have the performance momentum combined with superspeedway skill that we desire include the likes of William Byron and Ross Chastain among the favorites. For drivers in the intermediate odds range, I am leaning towards the likes of Erik Jones and Alex Bowman who appear to have much higher ceilings that current betting odds would suggest. Meanwhile, I think Austin Dillon is a great option at even deeper value. I realize that Dillon has not run well lately but this type of racing suits his strengths yet he is getting very generous odds.

*Pivot options to those names above from different odds ranges also include positive trends for Ryan Blaney (favorites), Brad Keselowski (intermediates), and Michael McDowell (longshot). Consider these drivers as pivot options that can be mixed into lineups if variation is needed.

Draftkings Ambetter 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 Ambetter 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Ross Chastain +1200 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1200 (.75 unit)
Alex Bowman +1800 (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +2500 (.5 unit)
Daniel Suarez +3000 (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +3300 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Chris Buescher -110 over Bubba Wallace (2 units)
Aric Almirola +900 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Ryan Preece +2000 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)