2023 Ambetter Health 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 15th, 2023. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
TV: USA

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will fire the engines for 200 laps of competition at New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the running of the Ambetter Health 200. As many are aware, the Xfinity and Cup Series visit Loudon for one weekend each season meaning both of these races serve as standalone events for each series. However with the regular season fastly coming to a close, New Hampshire Motor Speedway may be the type of venue that offers opportunities to some of the drivers that you may not originally expect.

For starters, New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a very flat oval-shaped 1.058 mile speedway. In some stretches of the imagination, it is an overgrown Martinsville Speedway. Drivers will need to be consistent in hitting their braking points and need a car that rotates well through the center. The drivers will also be critically responsible for keeping the car stable on corner exit to keep from burning the rear tires. Traditionally, New Hampshire Motor Speedway favors the drivers/cars with the better long-run setups and speed. However in Xfinity Series competition with stage breaks, we rarely see extremely “long” runs. In fact, the final stage in Saturday’s race is barely over 100 laps which is just north of a single fuel run.

With that being said, I do believe long-run speed is something that should be given a considerable amount of consideration on Saturday and especially in Sunday’s Crayon 301. For Saturday’s Ambetter Health 200, I think bettors can give more attention towards starting spots and track position because this will be a relatively short race. Additionally, passing is very difficult at New Hampshire Motor Speedway so track position will likely be the name of the game all afternoon. It’s worth noting that the eventual race winner at New Hampshire has started from the front row in 8 of the last 10 races in Xfinity Series competition. Therefore, something to keep in mind going into Saturday.

Practice and Qualifying Recap

Friday’s on-track activities in preparation for the Ambetter Health 200 concluded with Chandler Smith winning the pole for the 2nd straight week. Smith paced the field in qualifying with a lap of 126.291mph which edged out John Hunter Nemechek for the top spot. Behind Smith and Nemechek who had the field covered by nearly 2 tenths, J.R Motorsports provided one of their best qualifying sessions in recent memory as Josh Berry, Justin Allgaier (defending winner), and Brandon Jones rounded out the top 5 positions.

As stated before, the odds state that our race winner typically comes from the top 2 starting rows and we have a bunch of good names starting upfront on Saturday. Before qualifying, teams also had the opportunity to practice which provided some level of expectation of race trim style speed. In practice, I thought the same two guys starting on the front row were the overall best in practice in both Chandler Smith and John Hunter Nemechek. Smith was lighting fast on the shorter run however Nemechek hardly showed any signs of fall off despite running nearly 20 consecutive laps. Judging by how close Nemechek was to Smith in qualifying, I would actually say Nemechek appears to have the best “race” speed going into Saturday. Meanwhile, Justin Allgaier and Cole Custer were among the guys that were also within striking distance. Additional shout out should probably be given to Kaz Grala who showed really good speed in the #26 car based on what many would have expected going into Friday’s sessions.

Betting Targets

For betting targets, I think John Hunter Nemechek and Justin Allgaier are the two best drivers for the type of racing that will unfold on Saturday. Both drivers are excellent talents on the flatter surfaces and tend to be excellent long-run drivers as well. I definitely think the Joe Gibbs Racing cars are outperforming the rest of the competition which is why I would give the overall nod to Nemechek. However, I would imagine Allgaier will likely get more dangerous the longer this race unfolds under green flag conditions.

Obviously, there is not going to be tremendous value in the betting favorites for the outright win. For better betting opportunities, I am looking for sharks in the H2H department and I believe I have found a few. Daniel Hemric has averaged a triple digit driver rating in 4 career starts in Loudon and that includes a 35th place finish last year after blowing a tire in the final stage. In short, Hemric has always run towards the front at New Hampshire and is on the right side of the odds in most of his current projections. Meanwhile, I really like lower-tier drivers like Brett Moffitt, Jeremy Clements, and Kaz Grala to provide potential bottom-tier value in H2H match-ups. Both Moffitt and Clements always seem to get the best of their equipment at these types of layouts and I mentioned Grala’s speed in practice above. It’s also worth noting that Grala did not get a chance to qualify and will start at the rear of the field which also makes him an intriguing fantasy option for Saturday as well.

Draftkings Ambetter Health 200 Optimal Lineup

2023 Ambetter Health 200 Race Picks

*Final*

John Hunter Nemechek +350 (2 units)
Chandler Smith +600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Justin Allgaier -120 over Josh Berry (3 units)
John Hunter Nemechek -125 over Cole Custer (2 units)
Daniel Hemric -105 over Joe Graf Jr (2 units)
Daniel Hemric +300 wins Group C (Dillon, Graf Jr, Herbst)(1 unit)