2023 Alsco Uniforms 302 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday October 14th, 2023. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: NBC

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will begin the Round of 8 with their 2nd stop of the season in Sin City for the running of the Alsco Uniforms 302 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Back in March, Austin Hill captured a victory in the Xfinity Series’ first stop at Vegas by winning the Alsco Uniforms 300. At the time, it was Hill’s 2nd victory in just the 3rd race of the season. This week Hill is among the 8 drivers that will be fighting for a chance to run for a championship at Phoenix and that championship bid would be sealed with a victory!

Needless to say, every race throughout the remainder of the season will be huge towards drivers’ chances to earn a spot in the championship finale at Phoenix and that is the same throughout all of NASCAR’s touring series. For the Xfinity Series’ championship race, things got very intriguing on Friday when points leader John Hunter Nemechek and the #20 team had mechanical issues during practice where an oil leak was identified. Nemechek was unable to qualify Friday evening and will have to start at the rear of the field, complicating the start to his Round of 8.

In qualifying, Josh Berry emerged as the fastest guy in Sin City with a fast lap of 181.996mph. As many are aware, Berry has had a rather disappointing 2023 campaign however Friday’s pole marked his 3rd pole award of the season. The driver of the #8 has yet to score a victory this season but perhaps is trending in the right direction especially following a solid afternoon from all of the J.R. Motorsports cars. With that being said, John Hunter Nemechek is still the guy that has won each of the last two races on the 1.5 mile surfaces stemming from his recent victories at Kansas and Texas. Despite the mechanical issues on Friday, Nemechek still deserves the credit as the guy to beat going into Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 302.

Handicapping Notes

As I stated in prior previews at Kansas and Texas, we have to rely on our in-season performance trends when handicapping races at the 1.5 mile venues. These particular 1.5 mile tracks are based around pure speed because the drivers are nearly full throttle in all series and that is why we see very consistent trends in terms of performance at these particular venues. In compiling data previously, we saw that John Hunter Nemechek, Justin Allgaier, and Austin Hill were easily the 3 best cars throughout the season at the 1.5 mile speedways and in that particular order. In recent 1.5 mile speedway events, we have also seen guys like Parker Kligerman (two straight top 5 finishes) and Brett Moffitt (two straight top 10 finishes) perform much better than they did earlier this season at similar layouts. Therefore, those drivers are solid H2H options that must be considered going into the weekend.

Practice Observations

Before qualifying on Friday, Cole Custer posted the fastest lap in practice with a speed of 177.772mph. Personally, I thought Custer was the best car outright in terms of speed when combining both practice and qualifying observations. Custer displayed really good speed in the early stages of Friday’s practice however the car did not maintain the speed as well as some of the other top guys. Whether that can be improved going into Saturday remains to be determined. Despite the oil leak, John Hunter Nemechek once again appeared to be the car to beat. Nemechek had the best 10 and 15 lap averages over the likes of Custer and pole sitter Josh Berry.

Unlike many races this season on the 1.5 mile speedways, I was not impressed with the J.R. Motorsports cars aside from the likes of Berry. Justin Allgaier, Sam Mayer, and Brandon Jones failed to show signs of “winning” speed though I will say Allgaier rarely does in practice formats. In terms of surprises on Friday, I would list Parker Retzlaff and Daniel Hemric as a pair of drivers that appeared to have more speed than perhaps most would have expected. Layne Riggs also showed decent speed in practice behind the #11 car however I would note that Riggs has often gone backwards during race conditions in his limited starts in the series.

Betting Targets

Like most 1.5 mile speedways in the Xfinity Series, there is not going to be a lot of betting “value” in terms of futures (win) odds. I believe Nemechek remains the guy to beat until proven otherwise. However, even if you wanted to take pivots against the favorites like Josh Berry, Justin Allgaier, Austin Hill, or Cole Custer; betting odds are simply not appetizing for the top favorites. Personally, I believe Cole Custer is the driver that should be the betting pivot if you are going to take another from that group. Custer has performed really well during the 2nd half of the year and the #00 team appears to be peaking at the right time.

I fully expect the path to better betting value to flow through H2H match-ups on Saturday. In terms of potential H2H targets, I like guys like Parker Kligerman, Parker Retzlaff, and Brett Moffitt as the drivers that should outrun their current projections. I mentioned both Kligerman and Moffitt above for their recent strong performances at the 1.5 mile venues. Meanwhile, Retzlaff showed really strong speed in practice. In fact, it may have been Retzlaff’s best practice session of the entire year for what it’s worth. I would also say that guys like Daniel Hemric and Riley Herbst were trending in the right direction. While I may not target those guys, I would try to avoid going against those drivers in H2H match-ups.

2023 Alsco Uniforms 302 Optimal Lineup

2023 Alsco Uniforms 302 Betting Picks

*Final*

Cole Custer +700 (1 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

John Hunter Nemechek -145 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Parker Kligerman -110 over Sheldon Creed (2 units)
Sam Mayer -110 over Brandon Jones (2 units)
Parker Kligerman +700 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)