2023 Alsco Uniforms 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 4th, 2023. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will feature an absolutely stacked field when the green flag waves for the Alsco Uniforms 300 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Last week, I raved about the talent in the Xfinity Series’ race at Fontana. This week’s lineup is arguably deeper and more talented. For the first time since 2021, Kyle Busch will return to the Xfinity Series. Busch won 5 times in 5 starts in 2021 while chasing that historic 100 win mark in the Xfinity Series. Officially with 102 series wins, Busch will make his return this week behind the #10 LA Golf Chevrolet with Kaulig Racing and will undoubtedly be one of the top threats for the victory on Saturday!

Along with Busch, Tyler Reddick is another Cup Series’ veteran that will be competing on Saturday. Reddick officially returns to the #24 with Sam Hunt Racing for the 2nd straight week. However, Reddick and the #24 team were not very impressive last week in the speed department. Considering all Xfinity Series teams are running the same cars this week, I’m not sure if Reddick can be considered a real threat for Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 300. Beyond the Cup Series drivers, there is just so much talent throughout the Xfinity Series’ regulars this season. Cole Custer was demoted back to the Xfinity Series and is one of the frontrunners for the title.

Last week’s winner John Hunter Nemechek appears to be in the best position of his career. Not to mention, J.R. Motorsports has an extremely talented stable of drivers that are likely to contend for a victory on Saturday as well. In fact, J.R. Motorsports has won the last 5 races at 1.5 mile speedways in the Xfinity Series. If they can put another car into victory lane on Saturday, they would tie Joe Gibbs Racing with the longest streak (6) at 1.5 mile tracks in series history. Needless to say, there are a ton of drivers that warrant respect and consideration for Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 300 and we will have to be very sharp with our predictions!

Las Vegas Motor Speedway – Xfinity Series Quick Notes

• Kyle Busch (2), Josh Berry (2), and Tyler Reddick are former winners at Las Vegas. Berry has won 2 of the last 3 races.
• The race winner has started 10th or worse in each of the last 4 races which is the longest streak of its kind in the series.
• Josh Berry’s 4 career starts at Las Vegas has produced two wins, a 4th place finish, and a 7th place finish.
• Justin Allgaier has finished 9th or better in 14 of 17 career starts in Las Vegas, including 3 runner-up finishes
• Daniel Hemric has finished in the top 5 in 4 of his last 5 starts in Las Vegas
• John Hunter Nemechek finished runner-up in his first start in Las Vegas in 2019 with GMS Racing. Nemechek has posted finishes of 8th, 12th, and 16th in 3 starts since via starts with Sam Hunt Racing.
• Unlike some other 1.5 mile venues, Las Vegas tends to produce long green flag runs. In fact, Las Vegas has produced 6 cautions (including stage breaks) or less in 5 of the last 7 races.

Practice Observations

Xfinity Series’ teams and drivers were granted a brief practice session Friday evening prior to qualifying. It’s worth noting that teams were given 6 hours of garage time on Thursday to prepare their cars from last week for this Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 300. Teams were given an additional 3 hours of garage time on Friday prior to practice. Therefore while these are the same race cars, they have been given ample time to change setups. At the end of Friday’s brief session, Daniel Hemric laid down the fastest lap with a speed of 178.713mph. Hemric was followed by Brandon Jones, Cole Custer, Parker Kligerman, and John Hunter Nemechek as the fastest 5 drivers in terms of single lap speed. It is also worth noting that Kyle Busch was 12th in terms of single lap speed but the #10 team only completed 4 laps due to a leak in the left rear tire.

While Friday’s brief practice session did not provide a great opportunity for long runs, there were several teams that were able to post over 20 laps in practice. Joe Graf Jr actually hit the 30 lap mark which was the highest of the session. In terms of potential observations towards race speed, Cole Custer and Daniel Hemric appeared to have the best overall lap averages. Custer backed up his speed in practice with a 2nd place qualifying effort which was only bested by Chandler Smith. Therefore, I think bettors would have to give Custer the nod for being the best on-track in Friday’s sessions. Other notable drivers that also showed solid consistency includes the likes of Justin Allgaier, John Hunter Nemechek, and Chandler Smith. I would also give notice to Parker Kligerman who appeared to outperform expectations in the #48 with Big Machine Racing.

Betting Strategy and Targets

From a strategy perspective, I am going to put the majority of my focus on H2H match-ups this week. I’m really unsure if Kyle Busch will be as dominant as expected with Kaulig Racing. Though I will say I thought the same thing in the trucks and Rowdy went on to dominate. With that being said, I will take the low-risk/high-reward approach for futures and fade Busch for a 2nd straight event. The guys that I believe should be best suited to dethrone Busch include Josh Berry and John Hunter Nemechek. Nemechek won last week at Fontana and I’m really high on his chances to rack up several wins this year. Meanwhile, Josh Berry has been excellent at Las Vegas with wins in 2 of his last 3 starts. I thought both Allgaier and Berry were solid in practice. Berry reportedly was battling some handling problems but the speed is there for the #8 car. If they can get the handling a bit better, Berry should be back in the thick of the hunt.

For what it’s worth, Cole Custer and Daniel Hemric were really fast in both sessions on Friday. In fact, you could throw Chandler Smith into that group as well. However, Las Vegas is really not the type of venue where Custer shines. Despite some good runs, he has finished worse than his starting position in 4 of his 5 starts at Vegas. Meanwhile, Hemric has never been a trustworthy betting option and Smith still is a rookie at the end of the day. Therefore for H2H options, I am going to seek drivers further down the totem pole for betting options. Among the drivers that have shown great speed and have the talent to exceed their current projections includes guys like Parker Kligerman and Brett Moffitt. Both Kligerman and Moffitt have better equipment this year and I like their driving styles for a place like Vegas. In terms of current betting odds, both Kligerman and Moffitt have higher ceilings than odds would suggest.

Options among the favorites to target include: Josh Berry, Justin Allgaier, and Sammy Smith based on current odds.

Draftkings Alsco Uniforms 300 Optimal Lineup

2023 Alsco Uniforms 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +600 (1 unit)
Josh Berry +800 (1 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Josh Berry +115 over Cole Custer (2 units)
Chandler Smith -115 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)
Daniel Hemric +300 wins Group D (Hill, S. Smith, Creed)(1 unit)