2023 Ally 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday June 25th, 2023. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Nashville Superspeedway
TV: NBC

NASCAR’s Cup Series will compete under the lights on Sunday at Nashville Superspeedway for the running of the Ally 400. Following the final “off” week of the season, the Cup Series will embark on a 20 race stretch over the next 20 weeks with NBC taking over the television broadcast. As things currently stand, Martin Truex Jr leads the points battle with 9 other drivers essentially locked into a playoff spot. However, these next 10 races will be crucial for guys like Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, and others who have missed time this season and/or need a win to help secure their playoff fate. Therefore, let’s dive in and explore our expectations for NASCAR’s return to racing at Nashville!

Earlier today, Ross Chastain earned the first pole of his career with a fast lap of 160.687mph. Chastain’s fast lap occurred during a wild final round of qualifying which witnessed both Daniel Suarez and Bubba Wallace going for spins during their qualifying lap. Suarez and the #99 team suffered some damage and are expected to go to the rear. However, Wallace did not appear to have any damage meaning he will likely retain his top 10 effort from round 1 of qualifying. The wildness from qualifying was a theme throughout the day in both the Xfinity Series and Cup Series. The track was hot and very slick which made things very difficult for drivers.

I think the track conditions are worth mentioning because of the forecast going into Sunday. Rain is expected overnight and temperatures are expected to return to the 90s Sunday afternoon. Therefore, when the green flag waves for the Ally 400 we will likely see another very slick track especially if the rain washes away the rubber laid down from today’s on-track activities. Needless to say, I would not get too caught up in practice and qualifying efforts from Friday and Saturday because track conditions are likely going to change again. With that being said, we have been solid all weekend with our handicapping picks and that is because handicapping Nashville should be mostly tailored to drivers as opposed to historical trends, practice times, or other temporal handicapping angles.

Nashville Handicapping

In each of our previews this week, I have explained in detail that Nashville Superspeedway is a relatively difficult track for drivers. The concrete surface provides extra grip that produces fast speeds. In many ways, Nashville has the visual aesthetics to an intermediate speedway. However, the 1.333 mile layout has just 14 degrees of banking with his relatively flat. As a result, it can be very difficult to get back to the throttle if you don’t have a stable setup and strong car control from the cockpit. As a result, I continue to put a heavy premium on driver talent or pedigree when handicapping races at Nashville. Similar to handicapping tracks like Darlington and Homestead, we absolutely must ensure our match-ups favor the better drivers as opposed to trends, practice times, equipment, etc.

To be clear, I am not stating that Nashville Superspeedway is similar to Darlington or Homestead. In reality, they are completely different. However, I am stating that the handicapping philosophy should be similar to those venues where we never contradict betting match-ups because someone showed speed in practice, qualified upfront, or other temporal elements that can be wiped away with track conditions. Therefore, I want to be assured bettors put their best methods forward this week. While we will talk about practice and historical observations below, I believe it is a smaller angle in the grand scheme of handicapping for Nashville.

Practice Observations

Despite the fact I am downgrading relevance towards practice performance this week, I still understand that it is important for a lot of folks. Therefore from a practice standpoint, I believe the Toyotas once again showed excellent speed which has been a trend in recent races. Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr, and Bubba Wallace all had excellent practices. Wallace has perhaps surprised me the most this weekend because I did not have him pegged as a guy that fits the skill set for Nashville. To the contrary, Wallace has actually run well in each of the prior races at Nashville and enters the week as the best time in his career with Toyota advantage on his side. Needless to say, I think Wallace has some underdog appeal going into the weekend.

William Byron, Ross Chastain, and Kyle Larson were likely the best non-Toyota drivers from a practice perspective on Friday. Byron and Larson have been fast everywhere this season so their success comes as no surprise. Meanwhile, Chastain has been hot or cold throughout the year and remains winless. However, Chastain has finished 2nd and 5th in both of his career starts at Nashville. The only other driver to finish in the top 5 in both races at Nashville is Kyle Larson who won the inaugural race in 2021. Other drivers deeper in the field that appeared to be trending above expectations in practice included the likes of Chris Buescher and AJ Allmendinger who won the Xfinity Series race earlier today. Drivers that appeared to be “off” the mark in practice included a list of names like Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Chase Briscoe as the most notable contradictions.

Betting Targets

For betting options, I’m not really a fan of any futures (win) odds this week. Chastain’s pole winning effort has dropped him to a near 6-1 favorite alongside the likes of Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Larson who are weekly favorites. I thought Chastain would provide some value going into the weekend but I was not banking on him winning the pole to crush any hopes at value. Meanwhile, Truex and Larson are deserving favorites on a near weekly basis at this point. Truex actually leads all drivers over the last 5 races in our dynamic averages with a 115.9 average rating in the midst of a renewed hot streak. I think current momentum is important this week and that is why Truex deserves the low odds. Meanwhile, the rest of the field has really disappointing odds with 4 additional drivers listed at less than 10-1 and no valuable long shots on the radar. As a result, I will be forced into minimal futures (win) action for this event.

In H2H formats, I believe we will find better value. As mentioned earlier, Bubba Wallace is a guy that I believe should beat most of the other drivers in his odds range. I have high expectations for Wallace if he can survive the tough track conditions early. Other drivers that I believe are going to provide sharp value include lower-tier names like Chris Buescher and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Buescher has excelled at the flatter layouts in the Next Gen Car which is a trend that I think few recognize. Meanwhile, Stenhouse Jr is quietly having a phenomenal season for one of the smaller teams in the garage. Stenhouse has the driving style that I believe is suited well for Nashville and I will ride his momentum as additional compensation. Needless to say, both Buescher and Stenhouse have ceilings much higher than current odds would indicate.

2023 Draftkings Ally 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 Ally 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Ross Chastain +600 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +800 (.75 units)
Bubba Wallace +2000 (.5 unit)
Christopher Bell +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Bubba Wallace -115 over Alex Bowman (3 units)
Denny Hamlin -140 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
Total cautions over (-115) 10.5 (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +160 over Daniel Suarez (1 units)
Chris Buescher +800 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +475 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)