2023 Ag-Pro 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday April 22nd, 2023. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take center stage on Saturday at Talladega Superspeedway for the running of the Ag-Pro 300. So far this season, Austin Hill has swept both of the prior superspeedway races with victories at Daytona and Atlanta. Hill has quickly become the most dominant superspeedway driver in the Xfinity Series with 4 victories over the last two years at Daytona and Atlanta. On Saturday, Hill will once again be the heavy favorite when he tries to check off a victory at Talladega Superspeedway and we will break down the guys to keep on your betting radar for the Ag-Pro 300.

The Xfinity Series did not practice for Saturday’s Ag-Pro 300. However, teams and drivers did compete through an impound qualifying session late Friday afternoon. At the end of qualifying, there was no surprise who everyone was chasing going into Saturday. Once again, Austin Hill stood atop the scoring pylon with a lap of 182.46mph. Hill’s fast lap was accompanied by Richard Childress Racing teammate Sheldon Creed who also qualified on the front row along with a heavy brigade of Chevrolets which took 9 of the top 11 starting spots. While we know superspeedway racing is unpredictable, Hill’s continued success at these wild card events remains one of the big storylines entering the weekend and he is an extremely big betting favorite ahead of the Ag-Pro 300.

Personally, I am relatively happy that Hill qualified on the pole. He was already going to be the betting favorite going into the weekend and his pole winning effort will only shift odds in his favor to a greater extent while potentially creating better value throughout the remainder of the field. It is my opinion that Hill is extraordinary at protecting the lead, at superspeedway races, from the front of the field. However, Talladega is probably the most difficult venue to protect the lead from the front of the field. Due to the track size and width of the racing surface, it’s extremely hard to block runs from behind and that is why nobody should ever be the sizable favorite that we are seeing in Hill this week. Needless to say, we will gladly take our chances at playing the odds and target more valuable options throughout Saturday’s field in hopes for a big pay day!

Talladega – Xfinity Quick Notes

• There are 0 Cup Series drivers participating in Saturday’s Ag-Pro 300
• Jeb Burton (2021) is the only former Talladega winner in Saturday’s Ag-Pro 300
• Chevrolet drivers have won the last 8 races at Talladega
• Ryan Sieg finishes 4th and 5th in the two Talladega races last year
• Austin Hill led the most laps (60/67) in both Talladega races last year
• Parker Kligerman has finished 6th in his last two starts at Talladega. **Fantasy Alert** Kligerman blew a tire in qualifying and will start at the rear of the field.
• Sheldon Creed has finished 12th and 24th in two career starts at Talladega. However, Creed’s average driver rating is 98.0 in those two races meaning he has consistently run at the front of the pack.
• Unlike Cup Series competition, the Xfinity Series has produced relatively minimal cautions in recent races. In fact, Xfinity Series races have produced 5 cautions or less in 3 of the last 4 races at Talladega

Handicapping Strategy

As a quick reminder, I rarely will take any H2H match-ups this weekend due to the volatility of this style of racing. Success at superspeedway racing requires surviving the incidents meaning average running position/performance does not necessarily correlate to better finishing position as we would expect in most match-ups. Instead, we will take a look at futures that provide betting value and sprinkle bets in a ROI focused approach. Additionally, I will also be looking for those low-tier drivers that could surprise in the form of prop bets. While we likely see more of those options for Sunday’s GEICO 500, there may be a few hidden opportunities in Saturday’s field as well.

Betting Targets

Obviously if you are taking a single driver in a race pool or knockout format this week, Austin Hill remains the guy to beat. Everyone knows it and there is absolutely no reason to expect anything less from the driver of the #2 car this week. For bettors, sometimes we must follow the value, especially at a superspeedway venue where the overall favorite rarely wins from a holistic lens. Behind Hill, Justin Allgaier has probably shown the most superspeedway prowess among active competitors despite never winning at Talladega. Granted, we could make an argument for most of anyone in a Talladega field. With that being said, J.R. Motorsports cars are notoriously strong at superspeedway races but they have been each other’s worst enemies in both races this season. Still, Allgaier and probably Sam Mayer would be the J.R. Motorsports pivots that I would target for value.

Other guys that I am looking to sprinkle throughout betting and fantasy lineups in some form or fashion include a relatively large group of drivers like Sheldon Creed, Ryan Truex, and Ryan Sieg who have shown winning potential at the superspeedway venues. Creed and Truex are among the upper echelon of favorites so I am looking at those guys strictly from a futures perspective. Meanwhile, Ryan Sieg, Jeb Burton, Parker Kligerman, and Parker Retzlaff are among the lower-tier drivers that I believe can be potentially targeted in all formats if you really wanted. Burton, Sieg, and Kligerman always seem to get the most out of their equipment at the superspeedway venues and provide relatively strong ROI potential. Meanwhile, Parker Retzlaff, Anthony Alfredo, and Jeffrey Earnhardt are among the group of drivers that are in poor equipment but will have an opportunity to outrun their equipment as a product of this style of racing. I would not necessarily predict any of those drivers to win but they may provide some valuable prop bet appeal.

Draftkings Ag-Pro 300 Optimal Lineup

2023 Ag-Pro 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Sheldon Creed +1200 (.75 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1600 (.75 unit)
Parker Kligerman +2000 (.5 unit)
Ryan Truex +2000 (.5 unit)
Ryan Sieg +3500 (.25 unit)
Jeb Burton +3500 (.25 unit)
Parker Retzlaff +6000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Ryan Sieg +900 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)
Parker Retzlaff +1100 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)