2023 AdventHealth 400 Race Results

Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday May 7th, 2023. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Kansas Speedway
TV: FOX

Last week Martin Truex Jr ended a 54 race winless streak by capturing a victory at the Monster Mile at Dover International Speedway. With the win, Truex became the 8th different winner through the opening 11 races of the season and pocketed us a much needed win. On Sunday, the opportunity for another first-time season winner will be available when the Cup Series returns to Kansas Speedway for the running of the AdventHealth 400. Last year, Kansas Speedway produced two surprise winners in the likes of Kurt Busch and Bubba Wallace despite both races playing out completely different from one another. Needless to say, Kansas Speedway has produced enough surprise story lines in recent races to warrant more betting focus on underdogs once again this weekend!

On Saturday, Cup Series teams participated in back to back practice and qualifying sessions in preparation for Sunday’s Advent Health 400. At the end of both sessions, William Byron continued his breakout season by winning his 2nd pole of the year. Byron posted a fast lap of 179.206mph ahead of Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, Martin Truex Jr, and Tyler Reddick. While Byron’s pole winning speed should not be surprising especially given the fact he won earlier this year at Las Vegas which is the only other 1.5 mile track the Cup Series has competed at thus far, it was rather surprising to see Byron get the pole after the way practice started for the #24 team. In Byron’s 2nd lap of practice, he got into the wall but managed to escape with minimal damage. Byron and the #24 team closed out practice by looking solid and rallied back during impound qualifying to earn the luxury of leading the field to the green flag on Sunday.

In my opinion, the Toyotas really impressed during Saturday’s lone practice session. Denny Hamlin led every race speed category with the fastest 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 lap averages. Hamlin was followed in close pursuit by fellow Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, and Martin Truex Jr who are all affiliated in the Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing alliance. Those Toyota drivers had some of the best speed we have seen this season at the 1.5 mile intermediate layouts and all of those drivers are higher on my betting radar than perhaps they were before the weekend began. Still, Kansas is one of those wide open tracks where track position will likely be a major part of the battle on Sunday which means we cannot be overly committed to a single driver or team for that matter.

Kansas – Cup Series Quick Notes

• Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Denny Hamlin are tied for the most wins (3) among active drivers at Kansas
• Brad Keselowski (2), Kyle Busch (2), Martin Truex Jr (2), Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Bubba Wallace are also former winners at Kansas.
• Kevin Harvick has a superb 9.9 average finishing position over 34 career starts at Kansas which is the best among all active drivers.
• Over the last 4 races at Kansas, Kyle Larson leads all drivers with a 120.4 average driver rating. Larson has also led the most laps (291) during that same stretch.
• Denny Hamlin has two wins and 5 top 5 finishes in the last 7 starts at Kansas
• Kansas has produced 6 different race winners in the last 6 events.
• Toyota drivers have won 5 of the last 7 races at Kansas

Handicapping Strategy

I’m using a little bit of everything this week to hopefully construct a winning handicapping formula. We have not had enough races on 1.5 mile tracks this season to rely on any type of in-season performance data. Instead, I will look at our dynamic averages pertaining to the intermediate tracks and take into account other important handicapping angles like driving style and practice observations to round everything out. In today’s Cup Series, it’s really about keeping things as close to full-throttle as possible and finding a way to keep the rear tires from wearing out too quickly. So I would say driver talent is just as important as overall speed. Simply put, you need a little bit of everything to win at this type of venue including track position and good pit calls.

Dynamic Averages

If we look at our dynamic averages at the intermediate layouts over the last 5 races, the first thing that stands out to me is that Chevrolet drivers have dominated our analytics in this category. The top 5 include William Byron, Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, and Tyler Reddick. Reddick is the only non-Chevy driver on that list but the some of those statistics go back to last year when he was racing for Richard Childress Racing in the #8 Chevrolet. Needless to say, perhaps we should be cautious before overreacting to the speed shown by the Toyotas in Saturday’s practice.

While I will not overlook the Chevy drivers this week, I think it’s equally important to point out the fact that Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr, and Tyler Reddick have all shown very respectable statistics as well at the intermediate layouts. Therefore if the Toyota power holds true, those drivers may be among the group that should be getting the sharp betting attention going into Sunday. Some of the other things that I noticed from our dynamic averages this week are the relatively poor results from the likes of Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch. All 3 of those drivers have impressive Kansas resumes but interim trends suggest otherwise.

Betting Targets

In attempting to bring all of the handicapping pieces together, I admittedly really like Denny Hamlin for Sunday’s AdventHealth 400. Hamlin has been popping on my radar for weeks and I think he is overdue for a victory. Hamlin’s driving style is perfect for long run speed at Kansas and I think that could be an important factor on Sunday. Of course, William Byron, Kyle Larson, and even Martin Truex Jr are some top-tier names that are similarly dangerous for Sunday’s return to Kansas. Due to Byron’s dominant win at Las Vegas and speed shown throughout the season, I have to expect the #24 will be tough to beat, especially starting out front in clean air.

As I alluded to in my opening dialogue, I do think we have plenty of drivers that are capable of spoiling the show on Sunday in comparison to the favorites. I believe Bubba Wallace has a good chance to repeat at Kansas following his win last September. Wallace has been really strong on the 1.5 mile speedways in this package and went right to the top of the leaderboard in his opening lap in practice. Wallace was edged out from the top 10 in qualifying but I’m expecting him to move forward once the green flag waves on Sunday. Other names that should be given upset potential and H2H value include the likes of Christopher Bell, Daniel Suarez, and Ty Gibbs. Gibbs is perhaps my favorite H2H option because I believe in the Toyota speed and Gibbs has been starting to show his true talent in recent weeks.

2023 Draftkings AdventHealth 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 AdventHealth 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +550 (1 unit)
William Byron +800 (.75 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +800 (.75 unit)
Bubba Wallace +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Bubba Wallace -105 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Corey LaJoie +150 over AJ Allmendinger (1 unit)
Bubba Wallace +600 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Brad Keselowski +850 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +330 finishes Top 10 (2 units) (This is probably a bad line at BOVADA but I am taking it while it is up. Let’s see what happens!) Update! This bet was cancelled and will not be scored!