2023 A-Game 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday April 29th, 2023. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: Dover International Speedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will attempt to go racing on Saturday at the Monster Mile with the running of the A-Game 200 at Dover International Speedway. Perhaps the key word in that opening statement is “attempt” because NASCAR will likely be battling Mother Nature throughout the weekend for both Xfinity and Cup Series’ events. On Friday, Xfinity Series’ practice and qualifying sessions were rained out which means teams first laps of on-track activity will be during competition whenever that may be.

For bettors, the cancellation of on-track activities definitely does not help matters because you would like an opportunity to ensure drivers have the car that they need to warrant betting consideration. Dover International Speedway is one of those tracks that is about equal in terms of requiring driver input and having a car that has the setup to get the best speed. With half of our observation window now canceled, we will attempt to discuss the drivers that should excel this weekend in effort to establish some solid betting picks for the A-Game 200.

Before we get into specifics, it is important to point out that there are not any Cup Series drivers participating in Saturday’s planned event. Josh Berry will be filling in for Alex Bowman in the Cup Series race on Sunday as Bowman suffered an injury in last week’s race at Talladega. However, Berry is still considered an Xfinity Series’ regular despite the plentiful Cup Series opportunities that has come his way this season. As a result, this event will be settled among the Xfinity Series regulars and perhaps a few of the notable part-time talents like Ryan Truex and Derek Kraus who will be in competition. The interesting aspect of Saturday’s A-Game 200 is the fact that so much of the Xfinity Series is filled with drivers that have limited experience and that is an angle that comes often comes into play at Dover.

Dover Xfinity Notes

• Justin Allgaier (2), Cole Custer, and Josh Berry (defending winner) are the only former Xfinity Series winners at Dover competing in the A-Game 200
• Josh Berry has finished 1st and 2nd in his only two career starts at Dover
• Justin Allgaier has finished 3rd or better in 8 of his last 9 starts at Dover. His worst finish during that stretch was 7th in 2020.
• Sam Mayer finished 5th in his only career start at Dover last year
• Brandon Jones has finished outside the top 10 in 9 of 12 career starts at Dover
• Notable names like Sammy Smith and Derek Kraus will be making their first starts at Dover in Xfinity Series competition. Smith (ARCA) and Kraus (Trucks) both have 1 prior start at Dover in lower touring series.
• There have been 6 cautions or less in each of the last 7 Xfinity Series races at Dover

Handicapping Strategy

As you may recognize, even our notes section above is relatively slim this week because the majority of the Xfinity Series drivers have limited experience at Dover International Speedway. When you take that factor and combine it with the fact Friday’s sessions were canceled due to rain, then we have a seemingly volatile scenario from an expectations standpoint. For that reason, I believe bettors must be very cautious for the A-Game 200 and narrow their betting targets down to a smaller pool of drivers. The variances ahead of Saturday’s race with the track conditions, lack of practice, and lack of time to fine-tune setups means that our betting targets should only be on a very small number of drivers who have shown undeniable top-tier speed at Dover which will used mainly in the realm of H2H bets.

Betting Targets

For betting targets, I believe Josh Berry and Justin Allgaier fit the “undeniable” parameters that I mentioned above. Berry has been sensational at Dover in a period of two races while Allgaier has posted similar results over a much larger time period. In fact, I would argue that Dover is one of Allgaier’s best tracks and it fits his driving style very well. Based on the ways both drivers/teams have performed this year, I would likely side with Allgaier over the two options if I had to choose solely between the two drivers. Either way, both drivers offer sharp value in all betting formats.

Perhaps the only downside to the J.R. Motorsports duo is the fact that Joe Gibbs Racing has been much better on the shorter layouts this year. However, Sammy Smith does not have the experience to warrant betting confidence and Nemechek has not exactly been “great” in 6 prior Dover starts in the series. I’m sure both drivers have winning potential going into Saturday but I just don’t have enough betting confidence to target those drivers. Instead, I am looking towards the 2nd-tier and mid-pack options that yield sharp H2H value. The next duo of drivers that I believe provides excellent H2H value includes the pair of Sam Mayer and Brett Moffitt.

Mayer led many laps in this race last year before a pit road mistake ruined his chances. Mayer still rallied to a 5th place result in that race. Mayer has shown a keen talent for the style of driving required to succeed at Dover and I believe he gives bettors value in all formats. Meanwhile, Brett Moffitt is a solid H2H option among the lower-tier options. Dover has been one of Moffitt’s best tracks going back to his Truck Series success. In Xfinity Series competition, Moffitt has finished inside the top 15 in 4 career Xfinity Series starts driving in relatively poor equipment. As a lower-tier option and potentially in better equipment, I have Moffitt’s floor and ceiling much higher than current betting odds suggest.

2023 Draftkings A-Game 200 Optimal Lineup

2023 A-Game 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +400 (1.25 units)
Sam Mayer +1200 (.75 unit)
Brandon Jones +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Justin Allgaier -115 over John Hunter Nemechek (3 units)
Derek Kraus -125 over Corey Heim (3 units)
Brett Moffitt -145 over Anthony Alfredo (3 units)
Brandon Jones +600 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Sam Mayer +200 finishes Top 5 (2 units)