2023 4EVER 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday October 22nd, 2023. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway
TV: NBC

Last week, Kyle Larson secured his spot in the championship finale with a dominating performance in the South Point 400 at Las Vegas. The win was Larson’s 4th of the season and will give him the opportunity to seek his 2nd career title. On Sunday, the remaining 7 championship drivers will be looking for their opportunity to punch a championship ticket to Phoenix when the green flag waves for the 4EVER 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Prior to 2020, the championship finale was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway but this week’s race will just play an important role towards deciding who will race for the championship in two weeks!

During this stage of the playoffs, the championship drivers rightfully get the majority of the attention. However, Homestead-Miami Speedway is one of those tracks that is going to challenge all of Sunday’s competitors and we should see exciting racing throughout the entire field. Unlike other 1.5 mile speedways, Homestead-Miami Speedway is a multi-groove track that has an aged surface that yields low-grip conditions and high tire wear. In fact, lap times will fall off more on Sunday than the Cup Series experiences at Darlington which is one of the most intimidating tracks on the entire schedule.

The multiple grooves and rugged surface produces great side by side racing at times. However, the recipe for success at Homestead will be long-run speed and managing those precious tires. Tire wear in general has not been as important with the Next Gen Car but rest assured that will not be the case when the green flag waves tomorrow. In recent races at 1.5 mile speedways, I have relied heavily on in-season performance trends to shed insight into the guys with the most speed. In fact, I have described the driving relatively “easy” at some of the 1.5 mile speedways with the higher grip levels. While speed will be important and those in-season performance trends will be noteworthy, we must also look at the historical narratives to identify those drivers that simply know how to make the most speed around Homestead.

Dynamic Averages

I am not going to spend a lot of time making remarks towards our dynamic averages because I just did that last week and the metrics are self-explanatory. However, this is one piece of the handicapping equation which should be considered this weekend. As noted last week, I truly believe the Toyota teams have found speed at the intermediate layouts despite the consistency of Kyle Larson and William Byron throughout the season. In last week’s race, Christopher Bell nearly passed Kyle Larson on the last lap and appeared to have another 50 horsepower at the end of the South Point 400. I’m not sure if any of those tangibles will carry over this week but we have seen consistent improvement from all of the Toyota teams from Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing.

Historical Narratives

In terms of historical narratives, we could start with the fact that Denny Hamlin (3), Kyle Busch (2), Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, and William Byron are all former winners at Homestead. Specifically speaking, Harvick, Busch, Truex, and Hamlin have all posted sub 10.0 average finishing positions in the last 10 races which is rather remarkable. If you take that same group of guys and add Kyle Larson to the mix, those are also the same group of guys that lead the majority of the statistics at Darlington, Richmond, and other venues that yield low-grip/high wear racing conditions. Aside from those top names, I would also include notable mentions to guys like Erik Jones, Brad Keselowski, and Tyler Reddick who have also shown positive signs in the low-grip conditions as well.

Practice Observations

Early Saturday, Martin Truex Jr won the pole for the 4EVER 400 with a fast lap of 167.411mph. Truex has been struggling in recent weeks and is not necessarily known for being a strong qualifier. When Truex does qualify well, it is usually a strong indicator of how he will perform throughout the weekend. With that being said, I don’t believe we need to discuss qualifying results because single-lap speed is not very meaningful for a place like Homestead. In this morning’s early practice, the 23XI Racing duo of Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick led the two different groups with the fastest lap in each session. Wallace actually led all drivers with the fastest 10 lap consecutive averages.

However if we consider track conditions, Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney appeared to be even better in the second group of practice. Larson’s speed should not be a surprise. He is the defending winner of the 4EVER 400 and is one of the best at riding the wall which typically turns into the fastest lane at Homestead. For Blaney, he has always been good at the 1.5 mile speedways but I have been pessimistic of Team Penske’s speed in recent weeks. However, both Blaney and Logano were fast last week at Las Vegas and appeared to be really strong again thus far this weekend. Therefore, perhaps the Team Penske cars have found some speed and are in a better position to make a run at a trophy. Other notable mentions that were should promising signs in practice included Brad Keselowski, William Byron, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Betting Targets

When we combine all of these factors together and try to consider the more important handicapping angles of the bunch, I do believe Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Larson, and Tyler Reddick are the favorites with the best potential to hit their ceilings. I am a little hesitant to advise backing Truex because they have been “off” in recent weeks and I don’t believe James Small always gives the team the best chances. With that being said, I do expect Truex to run well. Meanwhile, Larson and Reddick are also hitting all the correct indicators and there is nobody better in the field at getting around Homestead than those two talents.

While we could talk about potential dark horses and make several valid arguments with low probability of cashing, I would rather shift focus to the drivers that I believe have the best value in H2H match-ups. Among the guys that I believe should outrun their current betting odds includes the likes of Brad Keselowski, Austin Dillon, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Keselowski may have winning potential but likely has better H2H value. Meanwhile, Dillon and Stenhouse are lower-tier drivers that I expect to run very well. Homestead is quietly one of Dillon’s best tracks and he has finished in the top 12 positions in his last 7 starts. Meanwhile, Stenhouse had a poor qualifying effort but that should not deter betters from the fact that he will get the best of his equipment when tires start to wear. As a bottom-tier option, Stenhouse should win most, if not all, match-ups.

2023 4EVER 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 4EVER 400 Betting Picks

*Final*

Tyler Reddick +600 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +1000 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +1800 (.5 unit)
Brad Keselowski +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Austin Dillon -120 over John Hunter Nemechek (3 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr -110 over Michael McDowell (3 units)
Christopher Bell +160 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Joey Logano +550 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Austin Dillon +450 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)