2022 YellaWood 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday October 2nd, 2022. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: NBC

Last week, tire issues plagued the opening race in the Round of 12 at Texas Motor Speedway which once again threw a wrench into the playoff standings. For the 4th race in a row, a non-playoff driver emerged victorious as Tyler Reddick secured his 3rd victory of the season. On Sunday, the drama-filled playoff battle continues at the most unpredictable venue on the planet when the Cup Series’ visits the high-banks of Talladega Superspeedway for the running of the YellaWood 500.

The good news for bettors is that we should not have to worry about tire issues this week as teams can run much safer tire pressures without jeopardizing speed. Still, Talladega is the biggest superspeedway in the sport that produces absolute chaos. Most importantly, the current playoff standings are extremely tight and I believe that will force championship contenders to battle aggressively for stage points. I would not be surprised to see another wrecked-fest superspeedway event on Sunday and while that remains to be seen; just understand that there is no such thing as “safe” bets this week.

For superspeedway racing, I always base my betting strategy around expanding the amount of drivers selected in a valued sprinkle approach. I may put even extra focus on the “value” factor this week since I am expecting another chaotic event. If you combine the fact that we have yet to see a playoff contender win at the traditional ovals during the playoffs, it is not hard to imagine that streak continuing this week at a place where surprise winners are more common. Therefore, drivers that produce significant return value in the form of futures (win) and prop bets will be the focus of my betting strategy for Sunday’s event.

Cup Series Superspeedway Loop Data

By now my readers should know that I value loop data statistics for superspeedway racing for the sole purpose of identifying drivers that typically run towards the front of the field. If we can identify drivers that typically stay at the front and have solid betting value, it only increases our probability of hitting a winner. For that purpose, I compiled loop data stats below for the all superspeedway races this year including the two Atlanta races which now are in that superspeedway category. As you see, Chase Elliott actually holds one of the biggest advantages that we have seen in loop data statistics this season. Elliott is the only driver with a triple digit average rating and also owns the best average running position among all drivers this season. After a disappointing finish at Texas, Elliott will be among those drivers that will need to be aggressive on Sunday and that could be beneficial if he is able to avoid trouble.

Behind Elliott, we have a lot of familiar names in the likes of Ryan Blaney, William Byron, and Joey Logano. Blaney has been terrific at the superspeedways in recent years with 2 Talladega victories in the last 6 races. Logano’s 3 victories at Talladega is 2nd behind Brad Keselowski (6) for the most among active drivers. Blaney and Denny Hamlin are the only other drivers with more than 1 victory at Talladega. However readers may also notice guys like Erik Jones, Martin Truex Jr, and Bubba Wallace that have also trended favorably in our loop data rankings this season as well. Truex has never won at a superspeedway venue despite numerous close calls. Meanwhile, Jones and Wallace have always performed above expectations at these wildcard races and will have some better betting value compared to many of the top names this week.

*Data reflects all superspeedway races thus far in 2022

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Chase Elliott	102.2	9.6	9.2	10.6	10.0	56	23	156	1111
Erik Jones	90.0	17.6	12.0	14.0	11.2	1	27	60	1112
Ryan Blaney	93.1	10.6	10.0	10.4	12.0	21	20	76	1128
Martin Truex Jr	88.8	12.8	14.0	9.0	12.4	34	27	44	1134
Bubba Wallace	81.1	21.2	14.8	11.4	13.8	9	33	32	1133
Kevin Harvick	77.0	14.2	10.8	18.6	14.6	-66	22	11	1103
William Byron	90.9	14.6	11.0	23.6	15.0	36	21	192	846
Aric Almirola	74.9	24.0	13.4	13.8	15.8	-20	33	6	1112
Joey Logano	84.0	11.2	23.4	20.0	16.2	36	24	28	1022
Kyle Busch	80.3	13.4	20.4	14.4	16.6	64	30	59	980
Denny Hamlin	76.8	17.4	17.4	26.8	16.6	65	17	25	859
Austin Cindric	75.0	11.6	16.2	12.0	17.0	-127	23	41	1009
Daniel Suarez	74.5	9.8	20.2	16.6	17.0	-89	24	43	1013
Alex Bowman	80.9	11.6	18.6	17.8	17.4	47	34	11	1026
Christopher Bell	78.0	12.0	18.8	26.8	17.4	39	19	23	954
Ross Chastain	82.3	11.8	20.2	15.6	18.6	22	29	75	936
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	73.1	22.4	14.2	28.4	18.6	77	24	40	789
Justin Haley	70.0	20.0	16.0	16.2	18.6	-23	26	9	1108
Kyle Larson	68.8	6.2	20.4	23.2	18.6	31	23	34	864
Brad Keselowski	68.1	19.4	16.2	19.4	19.0	38	26	67	1004
Todd Gilliland	58.7	29.2	18.4	25.4	19.8	-5	16	0	1006
Corey LaJoie	69.9	30.2	19.6	16.8	20.0	108	24	26	1111
Tyler Reddick	70.8	8.0	18.4	26.6	20.6	-27	13	31	757
Chris Buescher	60.4	13.4	23.0	24.2	20.8	-79	14	1	825
Michael McDowell	69.0	15.4	24.2	17.2	21.0	-59	27	2	1071
Harrison Burton	60.5	24.0	22.0	25.4	21.8	26	13	12	872
Chase Briscoe	59.8	13.4	20.2	20.4	21.8	13	32	5	966
Austin Dillon	62.1	22.8	25.8	19.6	22.8	55	14	11	736
Cole Custer	56.1	22.6	22.8	21.6	22.8	-87	23	1	860
Ty Dillon	50.4	22.4	25.8	25.2	24.0	-62	13	1	709
Daniel Hemric	63.9	21.3	27.0	24.7	24.3	-18	9	0	394
Noah Gragson	44.3	33.2	27.0	25.4	26.8	62	21	0	652
Cody Ware	43.2	33.0	27.4	20.0	26.8	-104	15	0	1024
B.J. McLeod	39.9	35.8	23.2	23.0	28.8	5	19	6	930

Talladega Notes and Trends

• Brad Keselowski leads all active drivers with 6 career wins at Talladega
• Aric Almirola has the best average finishing position (12th) over the last 10 races at Talladega
• Erik Jones has finished 9th or better in 4 of the last 5 races at Talladega
• Cole Custer has an average driver rating of 83.9 over 5 career starts at Talladega (ranks 5th among drivers through the same timeframe)
• Kyle Larson’s average finishing position is 26th over the last 10 races at Talladega
• Ford drivers have won 10 of the last 14 races at Talladega
• Talladega has produced 11 first-time career winners at Talladega, most recently Ricky Stenhouse Jr (2017)

Betting Targets

For those wondering, the Cup Series did not hold any practices for Sunday’s YellaWood 500. Earlier today, Christopher Bell earned the Busch Pole Award with a speed of 180.591mph. Bell will obviously have the luxury of leading the field to green but the main item that is worth pointing out involves the fact that prior on-track activities are really meaningless for handicapping purposes this week. Therefore, let’s move forward into our betting targets that I believe all lineups should focus around this week. Keep in mind, there are truly no “bad” picks in superspeedway racing but I would strongly encourage lineups to maintain strong ROI’s due to the volatile nature of this style of racing. Simply put, it’s the best long-term strategy for betting superspeedway events.

With that being said, I really like the value that drivers like Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, and Erik Jones provide this week. The one good thing about the parity the Next Gen Car has provided this season is that we do not have huge overwhelming favorites this week. At 12-1 odds, Elliott is among the favorites that can still provide value and have shown (statistically) the ability to run upfront often at the superspeedway races. Elliott has also already won a superspeedway race in the new car this season coming from his victory back at Atlanta. Meanwhile, Brad Keselowski and Erik Jones are drivers listed in the “intermediate” range of betting odds this week and have the value that all bettors should seek. Since his move to RFK Racing, we largely have forgotten about Keselowski as a winning threat. However, Keselowski does his best racing at superspeedway venues where you can throw out the equipment factors. Keselowski has shown great ability and speed at the superspeedway events this season and is still a dangerous superspeedway threat. Likewise, I feel like Erik Jones is another “value” option based on his continued strong performances all year and prior ability to win superspeedway events.

While I think most line-ups should center around those strong superspeedway talents, bettors will have the ability to seek value in a lot of different ways this week. Personally, I am gravitated to some of the drivers that could yield value in the form of fantasy racing and/or prop bets. Among the bigger longshot options, I believe guys like Noah Gragson, Cole Custer, and Justin Haley are the drivers that I believe are worth consideration. All 3 of those drivers are strong superspeedway talents whose odds are large because of the equipment they are piloting. However, I feel like all 3 drivers have higher ceilings that odds-makers are suggesting and perhaps worthy of dark horse considerations.

Draftkings YellaWood 500 Optimal Lineup

2022 YellaWood 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Elliott +1200 (.75 unit)
Joey Logano +1200 (.75 unit)
Brad Keselowski +1800 (.5 unit)
Kevin Harvick +2300 (.5 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +2300 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +2800 (.5 unit)
Michael McDowell +4000 (.5 unit)
Noah Gragson +10000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

*Odds courtesy of Bovada

Chase Briscoe +1000 finishes top 3 (.5 unit)
Cole Custer finishes +1000 top 5 (.5 unit)
Ty Gibbs +1000 to be top Toyota (.5 unit)
Martin Truex Jr to be top Toyota, Joey Logano to be top Ford, and Tyler Reddick to be top Chevrolet +20000 (.25 unit)