2022 XPEL 225 Race Picks

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 26th, 2022. 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Circuit of the Americas
TV: FS1

NASCAR returns to Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas this weekend for the first taste of road course racing for the 2022 season. On Saturday, the Camping World Truck Series and Xfinity Series will host another double-header just as they did last week at Atlanta. The Truck Series will have the luxury of kicking things off with the running of the XPEL 225. This weekend’s races mark just the 2nd trip for all of NASCAR’s touring series to COTA which means drivers have minimal experience on the 3.426 mile venue, especially those younger drivers in the Camping World Truck Series.

Despite the youth in Saturday’s field combined with the limited experience at COTA, there is little doubt of who will be the favorite when the green flag waves for the XPEL 225. The reason there will be little doubt is because Kyle Busch will be making his 2nd start of the season. Busch made his 1st Truck Series start of the season back at Vegas which resulted in a runner-up finish to teammate Chandler Smith. Busch is always a heavy favorite in the lower series events and is the all-time wins leader in both the Truck and Xfinity Series.’ Based on the dynamic of road course racing which produces less parity than traditional ovals because driver input is so important, Busch will be a huge favorite at the same venue where he won the inaugural Xfinity Series’ race last year.

Anytime Busch suits up in the Truck Series, it is a bittersweet betting scenario. We know Busch has an extremely high winning percentage with 61 wins in 161 career starts. For that reason, Busch is typically a heavy favorite where bettors can elect to lay the juice at a surprisingly successful rate. On the other hand because Busch is such a heavy favorite in these events, bettors like myself are typically enticed into extremely generous odds for all the drivers outside of Busch. Not only that but tomorrow’s field has plenty of well-known challengers that deserve attention as well. Former Truck Series Champion Sheldon Creed will be in the field and Cup Series veteran Alex Bowman among others. Therefore, this race will be an interesting one to watch.

Betting Strategy

While betting odds will ultimately decide our exact strategy this week, I will say Saturday’s XPEL 225 should be a good betting opportunity considering the scenario. I have stressed conservativeness and caution throughout this wild 2022 season. For Saturday’s XPEL 225, I believe bettors can be fairly aggressive as this is a race that will likely not be decided by a rogue driver on a late race restart or by some strategy anomaly like we have seen in previous weeks. Since we do not have to worry as much about upsets, we can put heavy focus on the top talents this week especially in H2H formats.

Betting Targets

Based on the level of competition, the venue, and other elements, I have higher confidence towards “Rowdy” this week than I do on most intermediate style tracks. The complexity in the layout at Circuit of the Americas alone is enough to allow for someone like Busch to dominate this event and it would not be surprising if “domination” is what we witness on Saturday. For that reason, Busch is the main play this Saturday if you are looking at probability numbers. Aside from Busch, Sheldon Creed will be Busch’s biggest challenge. Creed has been extremely fast already this weekend with the fastest lap in practice and the fastest lap in qualifying. However, it is worth noting that Creed’s long term speed or equipment durability could be a factor in the #20 truck. Additionally, the team has already reported that they will be foregoing their pole to replace a fuel pump. For that reason, I remain focused on Rowdy as the top bet.

Aside from the top dogs, I have my eyes on the likes of Kaz Grala, Parker Kligerman, and Tyler Ankrum among the lesser known competitors. Tyler Ankrum, Personally, I have been waiting for Tyler Ankrum to take a step forward this year and while it has not happened to the extent that I expected; COTA is the perfect venue for Ankrum to execute a quality performance. For that reason, Ankrum and Kaz Grala are my favorite H2H options this Saturday. I have not mentioned Grala’s name yet but he will be making his first Truck Series start of the year for Young’s Motorsports. While that is not exactly a top tier team, Grala has an outstanding road course pedigree and even drove the same #02 truck to a runner-up finish last season. I believe Grala benefited from the rainy conditions in last year’s race which helped maximize his finish. Without another wet surface, Grala may not have the same ceiling but he has a high enough ceiling to win the vast majority of H2H match-ups.

*Zane Smith, Ben Rhodes, (favorites) and Colby Howard (low-tier H2H match-ups) are a few other drivers that I am closely monitoring that could also yield value with the proper pairings.

Practice Observations

As noted earlier, Truck Series’ teams participated in practice and qualifying sessions earlier today. In both sessions, Sheldon Creed posted the fastest laps. With the uptick in performance earlier today, perhaps Creed is a bigger threat than I believed going into the weekend. Among the most notable practice observations included strong results from the likes of Parker Kligerman and Chandler Smith which easily exceeded expectations. Meanwhile guys like Matt Crafton, Alex Bowman, and Colby Howard were among the guys that I thought far below pre-weekend expectations.

Draftkings XPEL 225 Optimal Lineup

2022 XPEL 225 Race Picks

*Final*

Sheldon Creed +1200 (.75 unit)
Zane Smith +1400 (.75 unit)
Chandler Smith +2200 (.75 unit)
Parker Kligerman +2800 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Parker Kligerman -115 over Christian Eckes (3 units)
Kaz Grala +100 over Grant Enfinger (2 units)
Chandler Smith +500 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Parker Kligerman +700 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)