On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series will take center stage at Martinsville Speedway, for the final race before next week’s championship finale, when the green flag waves for the running of the Xfinity 500. As things currently stand, Joey Logano is the only playoff driver that has secured his seat in next week’s championship finale due to his win at Las Vegas. As a result, 3 championship spots remain on the line this weekend at Martinsville Speedway which should intensify the playoff drama for Sunday’s Xfinity 500.
Earlier today, Cup Series teams participated in on-track activities through practice and qualifying sessions. Kyle Larson, who won last week’s race at Homestead, captured his 2nd straight pole with a lap of 96.078mph and will get the opportunity to lead the field to green on Sunday. Larson’s fast lap was his 4th pole win of the season and perhaps slightly surprising considering Martinsville is not one of his “stronger” tracks. In 15 career starts, Larson has just two top 5 finishes with a career best 3rd place result coming back in 2016.
Of course Sunday’s Xfinity 500 will not be the first stop at Martinsville this season for NASCAR’s top division. Back in April, William Byron scored his 2nd victory by winning the Blu Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500. Byron actually dominated the event by leading 212 of 403 laps. Going into Sunday’s Xfinity 500, Byron is the driver that is currently right above the cut line by just 5 points over Denny Hamlin. Needless to say, Sunday’s race will be very important for the championship competitors like Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney who can still advance on points. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe are in must-win situations in order to keep their championship hopes alive.
Back in the spring race and throughout the season, the Next Gen Car has not exactly produced great racing at the short-tracks. While the 1.5 mile racing has been greatly improved by NASCAR’s new car, the short track racing has suffered because it has been a game of track position. Back in the April race, it was nearly impossible for drivers to pass and track position was the name of the game throughout 500 miles. While I’m sure the playoff drama may provide some desperate moves, I would not be surprised if Sunday’s race turned into another 500 lap battle of track position.
For clarity, Martinsville Speedway is still a unique venue. There are certain drivers that have figured out the half-mile paperclip and those drivers seem to consistently emerge at the front of the field. For handicapping, we can put some equity into track history while still acknowledging this car makes it more difficult for drivers to show their edge behind the wheel. In terms of setting our expectations, I think it is important to look at the track history at Martinsville and then compare that to practice observations on Saturday to potentially point us in the right direction. Therefore, let’s jump into the track history first and foremost:
While historical data is based around team/manufacturer performance which was more prevalent in the old car, I do believe Martinsville Speedway is one of those speedways where the driver could often overcome mechanical disadvantages. As a result, I compiled loop data from the last 5 races at Martinsville Speedway which includes the spring race earlier this year. The loop data statistics below can be used as a benchmark for establishing expectations but should only be a small piece of the handicapping puzzle!
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 125.6 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 74 | 324 | 711 | 2404 |
| Joey Logano | 110.5 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -18 | 110 | 268 | 2404 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 108.5 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 7 | 209 | 290 | 2401 |
| Ryan Blaney | 106.5 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 49 | 162 | 232 | 2404 |
| William Byron | 106.4 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 39 | 135 | 221 | 2343 |
| Alex Bowman | 97.0 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 14 | 133 | 10 | 2288 |
| Kyle Larson | 93.4 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 10.0 | 18 | 58 | 77 | 1404 |
| Brad Keselowski | 91.1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 47 | 67 | 8 | 2289 |
| Kyle Busch | 89.9 | 9.2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 35 | 44 | 5 | 2403 |
| Denny Hamlin | 85.7 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 18.0 | 13.8 | 68 | 142 | 421 | 2398 |
| Kevin Harvick | 84.4 | 8.0 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 13.0 | -37 | 37 | 0 | 2403 |
| Aric Almirola | 80.7 | 15.6 | 12.6 | 14.8 | 14.4 | -39 | 58 | 19 | 2379 |
| Christopher Bell | 80.3 | 17.0 | 16.0 | 17.4 | 15.0 | 21 | 26 | 9 | 2397 |
| Austin Dillon | 74.2 | 18.2 | 16.6 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 2 | 67 | 6 | 2301 |
| Bubba Wallace | 69.4 | 23.6 | 17.4 | 17.8 | 17.0 | 10 | 30 | 23 | 2403 |
| Tyler Reddick | 68.5 | 16.8 | 16.4 | 16.8 | 17.2 | -22 | 20 | 0 | 2401 |
| Chris Buescher | 68.4 | 17.2 | 19.4 | 17.6 | 18.4 | -49 | 16 | 0 | 2050 |
| Erik Jones | 67.1 | 20.0 | 19.2 | 16.6 | 19.0 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 2304 |
| Ross Chastain | 66.7 | 23.3 | 24.3 | 16.3 | 20.7 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 1401 |
| Cole Custer | 63.8 | 19.0 | 23.0 | 20.8 | 20.0 | -35 | 17 | 0 | 2397 |
| Chase Briscoe | 61.2 | 21.7 | 20.0 | 19.3 | 19.0 | -24 | 11 | 0 | 1395 |
| Ty Dillon | 52.0 | 29.7 | 23.0 | 20.3 | 24.7 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 1398 |
| Corey LaJoie | 51.2 | 28.0 | 22.8 | 26.6 | 23.8 | -18 | 1 | 11 | 2269 |
| Michael McDowell | 50.7 | 20.4 | 25.0 | 24.8 | 24.8 | -39 | 14 | 0 | 2283 |
| Daniel Suarez | 47.3 | 25.4 | 27.0 | 28.6 | 27.6 | -34 | 55 | 0 | 2274 |
| Justin Haley | 39.1 | 27.3 | 28.7 | 32.3 | 30.0 | -4 | 2 | 0 | 1273 |
| J.J. Yeley | 36.3 | 31.0 | 33.3 | 30.3 | 32.3 | -11 | 0 | 0 | 1871 |
| B.J. McLeod | 33.3 | 33.0 | 34.3 | 31.3 | 33.3 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 1106 |
| Cody Ware | 32.5 | 32.7 | 33.7 | 30.3 | 32.7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1379 |
Before Kyle Larson grabbed the pole in qualifying, Cup Series teams got the opportunity to practice at Martinsville. Denny Hamlin actually posted the fastest lap in practice with a speed of 95.079mph. The majority of the playoff drivers flexed speed in practice, taking 6 of the top 8 fast times in terms of single lap speeds. The only two playoff contenders that were not at the top of the charts were Christopher Bell (12th) and Ross Chastain (18th). Of course, single-lap speed is essentially pointless at a place like Martinsville where green flag runs can exceed 100 laps. Therefore, long-run speed is particularly more valuable towards capturing a Grandfather Clock.
In terms of overall practice observations, I thought Ryan Blaney consistently looked like the best car when observing raw lap times. Blaney posted the best 5, 10, 15, and 20 lap averages and was just slightly edged by Aric Almirola for the best 25 lap average and by Kyle Larson for the best 30 lap average. Known favorites like Chase Elliott, William Byron, and Denny Hamlin were all really solid on lap times as well. Almirola is a guy that I highlighted going into the week as a low-tier driver with higher than expected ceiling and he definitely appeared to be on the right path in practice. Other drivers that appeared to be exceeding expectations from a practice standpoint included guys like Chase Briscoe and Austin Dillon.
Since track position will be extremely important on Sunday, bettors must ensure we have sound edges for betting selections especially in H2H match-ups. In terms of futures (win) bets, I really like Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott are names at the top of my list among the favorites. Though I think the track history begs attention to guys like Truex, Logano, and Hamlin who will certainly be in the thick of the hunt, I still like the #12 and the #9 as the top two threats going into Sunday.
Behind the favorites, Aric Almirola, Austin Dillon, and Chase Briscoe are the drivers that I expect to exceed expectations based on current betting odds. All 3 drivers have shown excellent results at Martinsville despite different experience levels. Dillon finished 3rd back in the spring and has been solid throughout the weekend. Dillon has been posted in bottom-tier match-ups in recent weeks and that is reason for the #3 to be on betting radars. Briscoe is one of those drivers that needs a Hail Mary victory to keep his championship hopes alive. While I don’t think Briscoe will pull a rabbit out of the hat, he has been best at the shorter tracks throughout his career and the same can be said for his performance this year in the Next Gen Car when shifting is more prevalent. For that reason, I think Briscoe will have a quality run on Sunday.
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