2022 WISE Power 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday February 27th, 2022. 3:46PM (EST)
Where: Auto Club Speedway
TV: FOX

NASCAR’s best will attempt to tackle the Next Gen Car and Auto Club Speedway on Sunday when the green flag waves for the WISE Power 400 in Fontana. While it has been two years since the Cup Series competed at Auto Club Speedway, the track has not changed. The speedway still houses the same asphalt that it did in the inaugural race back in 1997 meaning the surface will present significant tire wear and the least amount of grip drivers will likely experience all season. While every trip to Fontana delivers tough conditions for drivers, this Sunday’s WISE Power 400 has the ingredients to produce a chaotic Cup Series return.

Beyond the challenge Auto Club Speedway presents, Cup Series teams and drivers will be faced with the more difficult challenge in learning how to adapt to the Next Gen Car. If you missed on-track activity earlier today, it was the most wild non-race activity I have ever witnessed. In practice, drivers were consistently losing control. Kevin Harvick wrecked the #4 Subway Ford on his 1st lap on the track. Harvick is expected to move to a backup car. Meanwhile, Harvick was far from the only driver that experienced issues. Several drivers were involved in single car incidents. Most drivers avoided serious damage with the exception of Ross Chastain who suffered a hard impact and will be forced to a backup machine. Even in qualifying, we continued to see several cars lose control when they tried to push the limits to make a fast lap. Needless to say, the Next Gen Car has proven to be difficult to drive and even tougher to save when the car gets out of shape. With all of those factors combined, we could have a wild afternoon of racing at Auto Club Speedway.

Betting Strategy

After digging a deep hole in the Xfinity Series on Saturday, I will remind everyone to be conservative this week. Admittedly, I should have taken my own advice on Saturday. In reality, I never planned to have the amount of risks in-action for the Production Alliance Group 300. After believing I found a vulnerability in a few match-ups, I overextended myself and paid the price after being wrong on the pick. All of that can be a reminding lesson for why we should approach early races with caution and after watching the chaos on Saturday in practices, I think we should double down on the conservative approach.

Auto Club Speedway Loop Data

Obviously, we do not have any performance data for the Next Gen Car on the traditional ovals to analyze this week. Therefore, we can only look back to prior races for some insight on historical trends. The good news is Auto Club Speedway does favor history. Obviously speed is important due to the track’s two-mile layout in size. Still, Auto Club Speedway is one of those venues where the driver can make a lot of time on talent behind the wheel and perhaps even more ground with good tire management. As you will see below, Kyle Busch leads all drivers over the last 4 races in Fontana with a strong 121. 6 rating. Busch is the only driver in the field with multiple California wins and his 4 victories rank 2nd all-time behind only Jimmie Johnson.

Busch was one of the few drivers that was fast in both practice and qualifying earlier this afternoon. Personally, I have always considered Busch one of the elite raw talents in the Cup Series and with the driving conditions so heavily in the spotlight this week it is even more reason to trust a talent like Busch behind the wheel. In terms of the remainder of the loop data, I do not see many surprises. Kevin Harvick stands out as a driver that has grossly under-performed in Fontana but I did not see any statistics that were extremely surprising on the positive side of things.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Busch	121.6	8.0	5.3	3.5	5.0	40	117	203	802
Martin Truex Jr	115.7	17.5	6.0	6.8	6.8	57	113	201	802
Joey Logano	105.6	13.3	5.0	6.0	7.0	16	37	13	802
Brad Keselowski	104.7	10.5	5.8	3.5	9.3	53	48	48	802
Ryan Blaney	102.2	13.3	10.8	10.3	9.5	12	64	56	801
Kyle Larson	101.0	7.0	10.8	9.0	11.0	48	51	110	801
Denny Hamlin	97.5	15.3	8.5	8.3	9.0	66	27	13	802
Alex Bowman	94.9	18.0	10.7	11.7	12.3	15	66	110	599
Chase Elliott	94.0	16.3	9.0	10.3	10.5	9	26	4	801
Erik Jones	91.4	16.3	6.8	12.0	9.8	34	12	0	802
Kurt Busch	87.3	11.8	15.0	11.8	13.8	43	14	0	800
Aric Almirola	86.7	16.8	13.5	12.0	12.5	23	6	7	801
Austin Dillon	80.9	10.5	16.8	13.8	14.3	-13	4	0	801
Kevin Harvick	78.6	6.0	19.8	15.3	18.3	-13	21	0	793
William Byron	73.0	24.0	13.3	15.0	16.0	8	7	5	599
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	67.7	13.5	23.0	18.5	17.5	-2	6	7	800
Daniel Suarez	66.4	22.8	16.3	17.8	19.3	1	3	0	799
Chris Buescher	60.4	14.3	21.0	21.8	21.0	-46	6	0	798
Michael McDowell	49.2	21.0	27.0	26.3	25.8	-40	3	0	794
Bubba Wallace	48.9	20.3	27.7	25.7	26.7	-13	1	0	591
Ross Chastain	46.6	31.3	26.7	24.7	26.0	13	1	0	593
Corey LaJoie	40.8	28.7	30.3	30.0	29.7	-17	1	0	590

Practice Observations

Practice observations should probably be taken with a grain of salt this week. The 30 minute session was broken down into two 15 minute segments. If you include the red flag minutes, teams barely got enough time to make a single run on the track. Despite minimal laps on the track, I would make soft notions that Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Ricky Stenhouse displayed the most speed on a lap by lap basis. Obviously Busch is no surprise considering his rich history in Fontana, however I would have never had Stenhouse as a dark horse this week. While I remain wary of trusting practice results, Stenhouse definitely could benefit from the parity the Next Gen Car provides. Perhaps for that reason plus the practice observations, we can elevate Stenhouse’s ceiling but I only believe that is worthy of H2H match-up consideration if anything.

Aside from the likes of Busch and Stenhouse, Hendrick Motorsports appears to have brought raw speed to Auto Club Speedway. Hendrick Motorsports dominated the single-car speed at Daytona and they are showing strong speed off the truck again this week through all 4 cars. Kyle Larson and William Byron appeared to be the fastest cars of the Hendrick Motorsports brigade but I would not rule out Alex Bowman or Chase Elliott from a strong outing on Sunday. From a driver standpoint, I believe this style of racing suits Larson the best. Larson has been excellent on the two-mile layouts throughout his career and can run the wall if that groove comes in late in the evening.

Betting Targets and Fades

Targets: In terms of betting targets for Sunday, I think the best options among the favorites surround the likes of Kyle Busch and Joey Logano likely in that order. Behind those drivers, I would also list Ryan Blaney as a driver that should get a lot of respect. All of the Team Penske cars had sneaky speed and I think they will race well on Sunday. In fact, last week’s winner and rookie Austin Cindric won the pole for Sunday’s race compiling one of the best rookie stretches in recent memory. Cindric definitely deserves some respect but it appears odds-makers are not providing much value for the rookie as his odds have been significantly slashed.

Other betting targets for Sunday should revolve around the likes of Tyler Reddick, William Byron, and Erik Jones among their respectable groups. Reddick is a driver that I am very high on this season. I expect that Reddick will benefit from the Next Gen Car and he knows how to get it done at the low-grip venues. William Byron is probably my most confident dark horse that should yield value in all formats including fantasy. Byron was among the fastest drivers on Saturday but will be starting from the 10th position after spinning in the final round of qualifying. Meanwhile, Erik Jones is another driver that may benefit from this new package. Jones has never finished worse than 19th in his 4 Cup Series starts at Auto Club Speedway. Though those performances were produced with better equipment, Jones still has some value in lower-tier match-ups this week as a driver that should make the most of his opportunities.

Fades: My top fade options going into Sunday include Kurt Busch and Austin Dillon. Both drivers were completely off in terms of lap times on Saturday. Busch’s struggles appear to be equipment and handling related. Meanwhile, Dillon just seems to be a fish out of water with this new car. Dillon has been in multiple spins throughout testing and limited practices with the Next Gen Car. While it may be too early to make assumptions, it appears Dillon is struggling with the transition. Lastly, I would also add Denny Hamlin to the “fade” list for Sunday. Hamlin cashed in a solid qualifying effort in the 4th position but I honestly believe that is because he did not push the issue like many of the other drivers that got into trouble. Hamlin’s race pace in practice was not very good and he has posted just two top 5 finishes in 19 career starts at Auto Club Speedway. Due to the strong qualifying spot, this may provide some fade value in terms of H2H match-ups.

Draftkings WISE Power 400 Optimal Lineup

2022 WISE Power 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Busch +750 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1200 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1400 (1 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Joey Logano -140 over Kevin Harvick (3 units)
Erik Jones -140 over Daniel Suarez (2 units)
Kyle Busch -120 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +400 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)