2022 WAWA 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday August 26th, 2022. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Daytona International Speedway
TV: USA

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will kick off a dramatic racing weekend at Daytona International Speedway this Friday night with the running of the WAWA 250. Unlike the Cup Series where drivers will have a “do or die” type of mentality to make the playoffs for the regular season finale on Saturday, the Xfinity Series still has 3 additional races before they conclude the regular season at Bristol Motor Speedway. However, Daytona still provides the same wild card type of opportunity for all of those Xfinity Series drivers looking to capitalize on their opportunity to capture a superspeedway victory!

Thus far this season, we have witnessed 4 superspeedway races which is more than usual thanks to Atlanta’s conversion to a superspeedway style venue. In those 4 events, we have not had any real surprise winners with Austin Hill winning at both Daytona and Atlanta, Ty Gibbs getting the first victory at Atlanta, and Noah Gragson winning at Talladega. I think that is an important fact to keep in mind this week because while the 2022 season has been glamorized by parity with the Next Gen Car on the Cup Side; these superspeedway races have mainly been tamed by the top drivers/cars in the Xfinity Series.

Obviously, that does not guarantee any potential outcome for this Friday’s WAWA 250 and I don’t want to necessarily deter anyone away from the possibility of hitting a huge underdog. With that being said, I just don’t think we should get too carried away with numerous dark horses either. The superspeedway races are as much about risk management as they are about predicting winners. Strategically, we will seek maximum betting value in terms of odds this week but we don’t want to throw away any wagers on drivers with a low likelihood of cashing a winning ticket. Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the drivers that deserve consideration based on performance this season at the superspeedway venues.

Xfinity Series Superspeedway Loop Data

Any time we get this deep into the season at a specific style of racing whether it is superspeedways or road courses, I think loop data in-season performance is an important tool for baseline expectations to guide betting predictions. Since this will be the 5th superspeedway event of the season, I have compiled loop data stats for all of the Xfinity Series regulars throughout the season. In this week’s field, we do not have a lot of Cup Series’ talent with the exception of Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Justin Haley who are known respectable superspeedway talents. Therefore, keep in mind that those part-time entries will not show in the loop data below.

As you will see in the table below, Austin Hill leads all drivers with a ridiculous 118.4 rating. Aside from Hill’s two victories, he also finished 2nd to Ty Gibbs at Atlanta. Therefore, he has basically been a factor in every superspeedway event this season and is without question one of the top superspeedway talents in Saturday’s field. Behind Hill, Noah Gragson and AJ Allmendinger have both compiled triple digit ratings. I mentioned Gragson’s victory at Talladega in April which was the 2nd superspeedway victory of his career which included a win at Daytona in 2020. Meanwhile, Allmendinger has not scored a victory at the superspeedways this season but statistically he has been the best with a 4.5 average finishing position. Not only does Allmendinger have a lucrative 4.5 average finishing position which should be kept in mind for fantasy and H2H match-ups but he is also 2nd in laps led (90) behind Austin Hill (190).

Behind the top guys, I really like to use the loop data to spot potential breakout candidates. If you notice, guys like Riley Herbst, Landon Cassill, Sheldon Creed, and Ryan Sieg have all compiled pretty solid statistics at these races this season. The majority of those drivers are currently receiving excellent value in terms of betting odds and those are the types of potential winners that can make an entire season. Even guys further down the list like Brett Moffitt, Anthony Alfredo, and others could be viable for potential extreme dark horse or prop bet options. We will just have to see if we can find the right value to add those guys into our lineups this weekend.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Austin Hill	118.4	5.8	5.5	7.8	4.8	-7	13	190	565
Noah Gragson	105.4	10.0	17.3	9.0	10.0	47	9	57	579
A.J. Allmendinger	105.1	8.5	12.0	4.5	10.3	24	14	90	579
Ty Gibbs	95.7	5.8	11.3	20.5	13.5	-66	8	16	461
Justin Allgaier	94.3	10.3	6.5	17.0	11.0	106	18	13	557
Riley Herbst	91.5	15.5	16.0	6.0	13.5	6	14	0	579
Landon Cassill	90.1	10.0	12.0	7.8	11.0	-31	8	0	579
Sheldon Creed	89.9	9.0	4.5	12.8	10.5	-30	15	32	568
Josh Berry	85.4	6.8	17.5	15.5	14.0	20	23	22	560
Ryan Sieg	84.6	11.8	10.8	9.5	12.0	15	14	6	579
Brandon Brown	84.2	16.3	8.5	22.8	14.3	37	15	13	514
Brandon Jones	83.6	7.8	9.8	15.3	13.0	25	20	1	565
Daniel Hemric	82.5	7.5	9.8	25.5	15.8	46	17	38	471
Jeb Burton	76.6	18.5	18.8	15.5	15.3	6	12	0	579
Brett Moffitt	73.7	15.5	18.5	19.5	16.3	-54	13	0	550
Jeffrey Earnhardt	73.6	14.8	23.5	12.3	20.5	48	14	10	579
Sam Mayer	73.4	18.3	11.8	28.3	18.8	26	18	2	492
Myatt Snider	72.6	28.0	16.8	19.8	16.0	45	15	2	577
Anthony Alfredo	70.1	17.3	26.0	10.8	20.5	24	19	3	579
Jeremy Clements	57.6	24.5	17.8	28.5	23.5	-20	7	0	404
Ryan Vargas	56.2	20.8	27.5	17.8	23.0	-44	6	0	579
Alex Labbe	56.1	16.7	23.0	18.0	22.7	-51	8	0	458
J.J. Yeley	54.6	26.3	31.8	24.0	25.8	-3	4	2	414
Mason Massey	52.4	27.0	27.3	22.3	24.3	-16	4	0	381
Joe Graf Jr	49.6	26.8	23.0	22.5	26.3	-71	5	3	567
Bayley Currey	49.3	22.8	32.3	23.8	24.8	-46	11	0	577
Kyle Sieg	47.1	33.3	29.5	19.8	25.8	-75	2	0	579
Joey Gase	46.3	32.0	26.0	22.7	27.0	-23	8	0	404
Josh Williams	43.3	26.5	26.5	24.3	27.5	-26	5	0	553
Matt Mills	37.1	27.8	32.3	31.0	31.3	8	3	0	444
Caesar Bacarella	33.0	26.3	33.3	30.3	31.0	-34	0	0	285

Betting Targets

For anyone wondering, there will not be any on-track activity in the form of practice before Friday night’s green flag for the WAWA 250. Xfinity Series’ teams and drivers will qualify Friday afternoon but I don’t see that holding much impact towards our betting predictions. In fact, the only thing qualifying truly impacts at this point is fantasy racing selections because of place-differential points that are included in the scoring. With that being said and before I dive into the guys that are high on my radar, keep in mind that superspeedway betting is a high-risk style form of racing. We do not have the “edge” from a handicapping standpoint like we do on traditional ovals therefore we have to ensure our betting selections compensate for volatility with sufficient betting value.

With those things in mind, Justin Haley is my favorite option among the favorites this week. Haley has been exceptional at superspeedway racing and we know Kaulig Racing also puts a lot of pride on their teamwork at the superspeedway venues. With a 4 car field on Friday, Haley should have the help needed to get out front and hopefully stay there. Obviously guys like AJ Allmendinger and Austin Hill have shown enough consistency at the front of superspeedway races to warrant betting consideration as well. All the favorites are in a similar odds range so there is not a better option from a value standpoint; it’s just about trying to guess who will be there in the end among the favorites.

When we look for dark horses and potential value bets in all formats, I think Ryan Sieg and Sammy Smith are both appetizing at 50-1 odds. Sieg has been phenomenal at the superspeedway venues this season and Sammy Smith has the equipment along to stay towards the lead pack. Other drivers that I also like are among the likes of Sheldon Creed (strong superspeedway driver with excellent teammate), Brandon Brown (2021 Talladega winner and excellent 100-1 odds), Sammy Smith (30-1 odds, shown great potential in recent weeks and has excellent equipment). Keep in mind, we could make an argument for almost any driver this week but these guys mentioned above are the options that really stand out.

Draftkings WAWA 250 Optimal Lineup

2022 WAWA 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Haley +1000 (.75 unit)
AJ Allmendinger +1000 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +2000 (.5 unit)
Sammy Smith +3000 (.5 unit)
Ryan Sieg +5000 (.5 unit)
Anthony Alfredo +6000 (.25 unit)
Brandon Brown +10000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Ryan Sieg +500 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Brandon Brown +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Alex Labbe +2500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)