2022 Victoria’s Voice 200 Race Picks
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday March 4th, 2022. 9:00PM (EST)
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: FS1
The Camping World Truck Series will return to action this Friday by kicking off the weekend in Sin City for the running of the Victoria’s Voice 200 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Unlike Xfinity and Cup Series’ teams that competed last week in Fontana, the Truck Series will get their first taste of non-superspeedway racing. The Truck Series has visited Las Vegas on two separate dates for the last several years but Friday’s Victoria’s Voice 200 will be the only event at Vegas for the 2022 campaign. While there may only be one race in Vegas this year, Friday night’s performance will establish some baseline expectations for what bettors should expect throughout the remainder of the year.
From the handicapping side, I am extremely interested in this weekend’s Truck Series race at Las Vegas because I am hungry to observe how some of these teams perform in the first non-superspeedway showing of 2022. After all, there has been a ton of movement across the majority of the Truck Series throughout the offseason and we desperately want to get a better gauge on the drivers to watch throughout the season. While this weekend’s Victoria’s Secret 200 will establish some performance baselines, unfortunately this Friday’s race will likely be an uninspiring betting event.
The reason I mention that Friday’s race may be an uninspiring betting event is simply based around the high likelihood that Kyle Busch or John Hunter Nemechek will find victory lane. If you did not already know, Kyle Busch will be making his 1st Truck Series start of the season in the #51 truck. The all-time wins leader in Truck Series action has won 11 of his last 16 starts. Rowdy is always a heavy favorite in the lower tier series events and he will have the luxury of competing in a rather inexperienced field on Friday. Likewise, teammate John Hunter Nemechek is the only driver that could contend with Rowdy on the intermediate layouts in 2021. Nemechek is going to be a heavy favorite on a consistent basis this season with the graduations of Austin Hill and Sheldon Creed to the Xfinity Series. As a result, Nemechek is the weekly top dog among Truck Series regulars.
Truck Series Loop Data
The reasons that Rowdy and Nemechek have a high likelihood to win this Friday are numerous. I would make an easy argument that both Busch and Nemechek are the top two driving talents in the Victoria’s Voice 200. I could also argue both drivers are in the fastest equipment with Kyle Busch Motorsports. Instead of entertaining arguments, I will let the analytics tell the story. I have gone back and provided loop data metrics for all of the 2021 races on 1.5 mile speedways which includes 2 races at Las Vegas.
From the data alone, you will see just how far Busch and Nemechek have separated themselves from the competition. Both drivers have extraordinarily similar stats. In 2021, Busch won 2 of his 3 starts on the 1.5 mile speedways. Meanwhile, Nemechek won 3 times on the 1.5 mile layouts including last year’s spring race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Both drivers have a nearly 30 point cushion in their average driver ratings from 2021 and that is likely an adequate articulation of how heavy both drivers should be favored on Friday. In terms of the table below, I would also play close attention to the drivers and teams that are identified in the 2021 metrics. While it may be too hard to explain, I am looking for not only the drivers that performed well on the 1.5 mile speedways but also the teams that showed the most speed at those venues. From there, we are taking some of the off-season movement into consideration to make some predictions for Friday night’s race.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|
| Kyle Busch (#51) | 137.8 | 11.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 25 | 101 | 177 | 404 |
| John Hunter Nemechek (#4) | 132.2 | 1.8 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 0 | 142 | 299 | 770 |
| Austin Hill (#16) | 108.0 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 76 | 37 | 12 | 819 |
| Stewart Friesen (#52) | 99.9 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 10.2 | 41 | 24 | 6 | 724 |
| Christian Eckes (#98) | 99.2 | 14.8 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 42 | 14 | 10 | 542 |
| Todd Gilliland (#38) | 98.9 | 5.7 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | -25 | 41 | 79 | 818 |
| Ben Rhodes (#99) | 98.0 | 3.8 | 10.2 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 26 | 18 | 13 | 812 |
| Zane Smith (#21) | 97.2 | 10.8 | 20.2 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 23 | 18 | 25 | 800 |
| Matt Crafton (#88) | 90.4 | 8.3 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 11.5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 795 |
| Sheldon Creed (#2) | 84.9 | 7.5 | 20.0 | 27.0 | 17.5 | -29 | 31 | 81 | 543 |
| Grant Enfinger (#9/#98) | 84.9 | 19.2 | 10.7 | 10.0 | 13.2 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 817 |
| Chandler Smith (#18) | 84.4 | 9.3 | 14.5 | 18.7 | 17.5 | -32 | 23 | 0 | 749 |
| Johnny Sauter (#13) | 83.8 | 11.7 | 16.0 | 12.7 | 14.7 | 30 | 8 | 15 | 796 |
| Tanner Gray (#15) | 77.9 | 21.3 | 11.5 | 17.3 | 14.0 | 6 | 14 | 7 | 814 |
| Carson Hocevar (#42) | 77.5 | 9.2 | 14.3 | 15.8 | 16.2 | -6 | 14 | 13 | 815 |
| Derek Kraus (#19) | 76.3 | 14.5 | 19.8 | 17.8 | 16.5 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 807 |
| Tyler Ankrum (#26) | 75.3 | 15.5 | 11.8 | 21.0 | 16.0 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 741 |
| Austin Wayne Self (#22) | 67.7 | 13.2 | 16.2 | 15.7 | 17.7 | -30 | 0 | 0 | 814 |
| Ryan Truex (#40) | 65.5 | 21.8 | 19.0 | 18.5 | 19.2 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 785 |
| Hailie Deegan (#1) | 63.9 | 19.8 | 14.5 | 21.8 | 19.5 | -28 | 6 | 0 | 775 |
| Raphael Lessard (#24) | 62.8 | 17.0 | 25.7 | 25.7 | 21.7 | -33 | 1 | 0 | 385 |
| Spencer Davis (#11) | 56.8 | 30.7 | 23.0 | 21.3 | 22.7 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 400 |
| Chase Purdy (#23) | 56.7 | 23.8 | 22.5 | 22.8 | 22.5 | -11 | 1 | 4 | 738 |
| Bret Holmes (#32) | 56.2 | 28.2 | 26.0 | 25.5 | 24.3 | 49 | 0 | 1 | 687 |
| Drew Dollar (#51) | 50.1 | 15.0 | 23.3 | 26.0 | 23.7 | -35 | 0 | 0 | 333 |
| Dawson Cram (#41) | 49.4 | 27.4 | 23.2 | 25.2 | 25.8 | -67 | 0 | 0 | 674 |
| Danny Bohn (#30) | 48.6 | 25.6 | 27.8 | 22.6 | 27.0 | -57 | 1 | 0 | 663 |
| Tate Fogleman (#12) | 48.4 | 27.5 | 30.2 | 26.5 | 27.3 | -10 | 3 | 1 | 706 |
| Kris Wright (#02) | 46.9 | 21.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 26.2 | -55 | 0 | 0 | 677 |
| Cory Roper (#04) | 41.9 | 26.0 | 27.2 | 27.0 | 28.4 | -37 | 0 | 0 | 633 |
| Spencer Boyd (#20) | 37.8 | 29.5 | 29.8 | 27.2 | 30.2 | -98 | 0 | 0 | 794 |
| Jennifer Jo Cobb (#10) | 31.2 | 34.5 | 35.2 | 32.7 | 34.3 | -31 | 0 | 0 | 684 |
| Norm Benning (#6) | 25.4 | 36.0 | 37.8 | 35.8 | 37.3 | -9 | 0 | 0 | 371 |
Betting Targets
With Nemechek and Busch being justifiable huge favorites, I am going to be very conserative on futures (win) bets this weekend. I will perhaps put some action on Nemchek since he is getting better odds over Busch. However, the majority of my betting focus will be based around H2H match-ups for the Truck Series return to Las Vegas. Practice and qualifying sessions for Friday’s Victoria’s Voice 200 will not take place until late Friday evening. Both sessions will allow for minimal team adjustments and qualifying will be impounded meaning teams cannot make adjustments until race time.
As a result, I believe the sharp value will likely come in predictions that predate Friday’s opening practice. I am obviously going to add practice notes and observations later Friday evening. However, I feel like we can likely identify sharp value through observing team’s performance data from 2021, applying the driver/team changes into the equation, and then making sound judgments on the drivers that should take a step forward in 2022 starting with this Friday’s race at Las Vegas.
Among the drivers that meet the formula above which I believe will exceed expectations include the likes of Christian Eckes, Stewart Friesen, and Tyler Ankrum. The reasons for those specific suggestions surround the fact that Ankrum will move over to the #16 team with Hattori Racing Enterprises. I am a believer in Ankrum’s talent so I believe the upgrade in equipment will be seen throughout the 2022 season. Likewise, I have similar reservations for Eckes who will run his 1st full-time season with Thorsport Racing. Eckes won the fall race at Las Vegas and returns to the #98 team where he made a lot of noise at the end of 2022. Eckes is another driver that will likely benefit from more experience and better equipment this year. Therefore, I would expect that he competes at a level higher than is expected.
Betting Fades
It has been nearly 10 years since Truck Series legend Todd Bodine has competed and while I believe he is in respectable equipment with Halmar Friesen Racing; I am not expecting any outstanding style results on Friday. Bodine will no longer be among the fastest teams in terms of raw speed and we cannot overlook the time that Bodine has been outside of the cockpit. Another driver that I believe we can fade based solely on name value includes Matt DiBenedetto. DiBenedetto drops down from the Cup Series this season for full-time Truck Series competition but the #25 truck with Rackley W.A.R. has consistently underperformed with high profile names over the last year. Once again, I believe bettors will have an opportunity to fade another popular name that does not have as much realistic upside as odds may suggest.
*Other noteworthy considerations for fade potential (prior to practices) include the likes of Grant Enfinger, Jordan Anderson, and Brennan Poole.
Practice Observations
Practice just wrapped up a few minutes ago and qualifying for tonight’s Victoria’s Voice 200 is currently underway. The brief practice session did not yield a lot of surprises and likely did not allow enough time to learn a lot of nuances. To nobody’s surprise, all of the Kyle Busch Motorsports’ trucks looked strong. Along with Kyle Busch, both John Hunter Nemechek and Chandler Smith were among the fastest trucks in practice on a consistent basis.
Christian Eckes and Tanner Gray also displayed solid speed. On the flip side of the equation, I was not impressed with the speed from Tyler Ankrum, Matt Crafton, Ryan Preece, or Todd Bodine. I had Ankrum pegged as one of my sharp plays today because I believe he will benefit from the team change. However, he did not show great speed in practices. Meanwhile, Preece and Bodine both struggled from a speed and equipment standpoint. Both drivers are high-profile names but I do not expect either to be in contention for tonight’s victory. Preece has the higher upside but Bodine can be considered an outright fade in all formats.
2022 Victoria’s Voice 200 Race Picks
*Final*
John Hunter Nemechek +650 (1 unit)
Christian Eckes +2600 (.5 unit)
Stewart Friesen +3000 (.5 unit)
Tyler Ankrum +8000 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-ups and Props
John Hunter Nemechek +100 finishes Top 3 (2 units)
Tyler Ankrum -110 over Carson Hocevar (3 units)
Chandler Smith -105 over Grant Enfinger (2 units)
