2022 Verizon 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday July 31st, 2022. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix
TV: NBC

For the 4th time this season, NASCAR’s Cup Series will suit up for road course racing when the green flag waves for Sunday’s Verizon 200 at the Brickyard. Indianapolis Motor Speedway is synonymous with auto racing but this will be just the 2nd time the Cup Series has competed on the Grand Prix circuit which features a 14-turn 2.439 mile layout. Last year in the inaugural race on the Grand Prix course, AJ Allmendinger pulled out a dramatic victory after Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe got tangled racing for the lead on a late restart. Last year’s race provided plenty of fireworks and things should be even more exciting with the Next Gen Car on Sunday!

The Next Gen Car has brought an insurmountable level of parity at the Cup Series level and we could argue that the product of that parity has been most evident on the road courses this year. In previous years, we have basically seen the likes of Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Martin Truex dominate all of the road course events. However with the debut of the Next Gen Car, we have seen 3 first time career Cup Series winners in the opening 3 road course events of the season. Ross Chastain earned his 1st career victory at Circuit of the Americas, teammate Daniel Suarez followed suit with his 1st career win at Sonoma, and Tyler Reddick became the most recent first time winner at Road America. Therefore, these road course races have quickly become “opportunity” events for drivers looking to breakthrough and secure a playoff position.

The Grand Prix circuit at Indianapolis is not necessarily over-challenging and it does not create a ton of tire wear like we witnessed at some of the other road course venues this season. As a result, I believe strategy will be among the most important x-factors on Sunday as teams try to capitalize on track position and fuel strategies. Due to the limited tire wear, I would not be surprised to see teams completely stay out or even just change two left-side tires when the caution flags wave. Due to all of these factors, it would not be a shock to see another surprise winner this week especially if a team can nail the perfect strategy. Either way, I believe there will be solid betting opportunities in all formats in what should be an intriguing spectacle.

Betting Strategy

Despite preaching conservativeness and cautious betting throughout the year, I have given the green light to approach this weekend’s races with more aggression. I liked Friday night’s setup with the Truck Series at IRP and likewise I believe the road courses are becoming more handicapping friendly. As a result, in every preview this week I have told bettors that we could be more aggressive this weekend. The reason behind this advice is because I feel like we can put solid reliability in H2H match-ups this week to produce sharp value on betting cards. As a result, we can be fairly aggressive if we can spot sharp value.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

Earlier today, Tyler Reddick backed up his victory at Road America in strong fashion by winning the Busch Pole Award for Sunday’s Verizon 200. Reddick posted a speed of 99.378mph which was over two tenths better than the field to earn his 1st pole of the season. Rookie Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, and Joey Logano rounded out a rather surprising top 5 in qualifying. It is worth noting that Saturday’s qualifying was an impound session meaning teams cannot make any changes to the cars prior to tomorrow’s green flag. Therefore all qualifying results were a product of race setups and perhaps are somewhat more reliable than non-impound sessions.

In practice, Christopher Bell emerged as a potential frontrunner going into Sunday. Bell led every category on the speed charts that judges race speed. Bell posted the best 5, 10, and 15 lap averages and also the best overall average of the session. I don’t think anyone would argue against the fact that Bell was the best car/driver combination in practice. However, it should be noted that Tyler Reddick and Brad Keselowski were not far off those times. That’s right I just mentioned Brad Keselowski was among the fastest drivers in practice, at a road course nonetheless. As most are aware, the former champion has been basically forgotten since his move to RFK Racing. However, Keselowski did post some of his best performances of the season at Circuit of the Americas and Sonoma so perhaps his stock should be slightly elevated going into Sunday.

Among other practice observations, I would call out that Martin Truex, Chris Buescher, and AJ Allmendinger were among the guys that showed solid speed in practice. Truex and Buescher have been trending up for weeks now and perhaps Sunday’s stop at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix comes at an opportunistic point in the season. For Allmendinger, last year’s winner was fast however he was extremely unhappy with the handling of the car and it seemed to show in terms of consistency. Therefore, it appears the #16 team has some work to do if Allmendinger is going to challenge for another win. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Daniel Suarez and Chase Elliott were some of the notable names that did not show the speed most expected. Meanwhile guys like Erik Jones and Ricky Stenhouse Jr had an awful practice session despite some quality runs in recent weeks.

Road Course Loop Data

As mentioned earlier, the road courses have produced 3 different winners through the first 3 races this season. With that thought in mind, I really wanted to compile a view to show how all drivers have competed over the course of all road course races this season. Below you will see loop data compiled from all the road course races this season. As stated before, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix is not the most challenging road course venue but we should still take note of the drivers that have consistently performed well at this style of racing throughout the season with the Next Gen Car.

In the below data, notice that there are 5 drivers with triple digit average ratings led by Ross Chastain. Among those 5 drivers, we have the 3 winners in Chastain, Suarez, and Reddick alongside two of the best raw road course talents in the sport in Chase Elliott and Austin Cindric. Surprisingly, you may notice former road course standouts like Kyle Larson, Martin Truex, and Denny Hamlin have been underwhelming in their road course performances this year. Meanwhile, guys like Tyler Reddick, Chris Buescher, Michael McDowell, and Daniel Suarez appear to be the biggest benefactors from transitioning to the Next Gen Car at the road course layouts. Overall, the below table should be used as a handicapping baseline and we should ensure none of our betting picks create a big deviation from the data below.

*Loop data metrics reflect 3 prior races this season on road courses:

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Ross Chastain	117.9	11.7	9.0	4.0	6.3	-36	20	31	241
Chase Elliott	116.1	5.0	7.3	4.7	7.3	-1	42	62	241
Tyler Reddick	107.1	4.3	12.3	13.7	9.7	-67	12	18	228
Daniel Suarez	106.2	9.0	14.3	10.0	11.3	-26	19	62	241
Austin Cindric	104.1	13.3	21.3	6.7	11.0	-20	10	11	241
Chris Buescher	99.4	10.7	12.0	9.7	10.3	-78	16	4	241
Ryan Blaney	95.5	11.3	5.3	7.7	11.3	26	4	5	241
Kyle Larson	92.8	5.7	14.7	15.7	11.3	-2	15	26	241
Alex Bowman	91.1	10.7	17.3	10.0	12.7	-18	6	0	241
Michael McDowell	90.4	12.3	15.0	8.0	12.0	-54	1	0	241
Kevin Harvick	87.3	23.0	14.7	8.3	14.7	-46	5	0	241
Cole Custer	80.3	6.3	19.0	19.7	14.0	-119	1	0	241
Chase Briscoe	79.9	10.3	17.0	19.0	13.0	-20	3	6	241
AJ Allmendinger	79.3	19.0	20.0	20.3	15.3	-27	4	2	240
Martin Truex Jr	78.5	20.0	18.0	15.3	15.0	-85	2	0	241
William Byron	76.5	24.3	27.7	12.3	18.3	7	1	0	241
Denny Hamlin	72.5	10.7	23.7	22.0	16.3	-40	3	4	241
Christopher Bell	72.1	18.0	20.0	16.0	20.3	-65	9	0	241
Austin Dillon	71.3	18.0	19.7	17.3	17.0	-2	0	0	239
Brad Keselowski	65.9	19.7	18.7	19.0	21.3	38	2	3	237
Justin Haley	64.0	20.3	11.7	17.0	20.3	122	3	0	241
Joey Logano	62.3	11.0	10.3	25.0	18.3	101	1	6	241
Kyle Busch	53.8	13.3	24.3	29.0	20.7	13	6	0	241
Harrison Burton	53.5	22.7	13.3	22.3	22.0	92	0	1	241
Erik Jones	53.4	30.0	12.0	19.0	23.0	56	0	0	241
Aric Almirola	53.0	23.3	20.3	20.3	24.3	57	2	0	241
Ty Dillon	51.0	32.3	22.7	21.0	23.3	-2	0	0	241
Todd Gilliland	47.9	28.3	19.3	21.7	26.0	-2	1	0	241
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	46.5	31.0	24.3	27.0	26.0	67	0	0	224
Bubba Wallace	38.9	25.0	22.0	36.3	28.7	32	0	0	107
Josh Bilicki	36.2	29.7	26.7	29.0	30.0	78	0	0	231
Corey LaJoie	33.5	32.3	26.7	34.7	32.3	-39	2	0	215
Cody Ware	32.7	34.0	32.3	30.3	32.0	40	1	0	237

Betting Targets

Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick were high on my radar going into the weekend based upon the momentum both young drivers have built in recent weeks. While Reddick’s road course confidence is probably the highest it has ever been after beating Chase Elliott heads up at Road America, Bell has been fast everywhere recently which culminated in a victory at Loudon. Bell’s first career victory came at the road course at Daytona and he remains a much underrated road course talent to most casuals. Personally, I think both Reddick and Bell have a ton of indicators that I look for in my handicapping checks and Saturday’s practices were just icing on the cake. Expect both to be in the thick of things as long as they stay out of trouble.

I have Chase Briscoe listed as a dark horse though I am unhappy with his current betting odds. Briscoe was in position to get a victory in this race last year but was forced off the course which led to a penalty that ruined his chance at victory. Briscoe may provide better H2H value as opposed to futures meanwhile Kyle Larson and Martin Truex are more prestigious names that I would not completely write-off either. However since I am particularly looking for betting value to exploit in either match-ups or prop bets, I am gravitated to guys like Michael McDowell, Chris Buescher, and Ty Gibbs as the best guys to produce value in all formats.

After a somewhat forgettable debut in relief for Kurt Busch at Pocono, the young phenom Ty Gibbs is in a perfect bounce back position at the road courses where he has been Chase Elliott-like in his young career. Gibbs is an exceptional talent and will get to be much more aggressive this week which I believe will benefit his performance greatly. Meanwhile, both Michael McDowell and Chris Buescher have been racking up top 10 finishes this year with this Next Gen Car. McDowell has been one of the most improved drivers in the entire series or perhaps benefited the most from the new car. Either way, McDowell has put himself into quality positions on a near weekly basis. McDowell has always been a strong road course talent and if he can put himself in position for another strong run; he could have some solid upside in all formats. I shared similar sentiments for Buescher as well but I would prefer McDowell if I had to choose between the two drivers.

Draftkings Verizon 200 Optimal Lineup

2022 Verizon 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Tyler Reddick +600 (1 unit)
Chase Briscoe +850 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +1200 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Christopher Bell -115 over Kyle Busch (3 units)
Chris Buescher -125 over William Byron (3 units)
Aric Almirola -110 over Bubba Wallace (2 units)
Michael McDowell +140 finishes Top 10 (2 units)
Chase Briscoe +250 wins Group (Cindric, Kyle Busch, Suarez)(1 unit)
Cole Custer +500 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)