2022 TSport 200 Race Picks
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday July 29th, 2022. 9:00PM (EST)
Where: Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park
TV: FS1
The Camping World Truck Series will make their long awaited return to IRP this Friday to kick off the series’ playoffs with the running of the TSport 200. It has been more than 10 years since the Truck Series visited IRP but it will return on the schedule at the perfect time to feature short track racing, under the lights, in the first playoff race of the 2022 season. Despite winning the series title, Zane Smith has just a 15 point lead in the series standings as the points reset to begin the playoffs. Therefore, each of the final 10 races will be extremely important to drivers’ championship hopes.
For those that are not aware, Indianapolis Raceway Park features a .686 mile oval with very flat bankings and multiple grooves which typically produces exciting racing. If I could draw a comparison, I would label IRP as a hybrid between Martinsville and New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Unfortunately, we have not seen much racing this season on similar venues with the exception of Martinsville which was back in early April. Therefore, I am not sure if we have any quality comparable tracks to guide our expectations going into the weekend.
Despite the limited handicapping comparables, I do believe the field will be chasing Zane Smith especially without any Xfinity or Cup Series’ drivers participating. Smith is a former winner at Martinsville (2021) and has historically performed well on the flatter surfaces. In my personal opinion, I believe Zane Smith the driver has separated himself from the competition in terms of talent this season and IRP should present the same opportunity to kick off this 10 race stretch of playoff races. If we were to extend our outreach to other flat tracks that are mostly comparable to this season like Nashville and Gateway, Ben Rhodes, Carson Hocevar, and Stewart Friesen are among the other drivers that have performed really well and should be trending in the right direction going into Friday night’s event.
Handicapping Strategy
Though we have limited options of comparable tracks to gauge performance expectations going into IRP, I do think this track is very difficult to drive, especially on the longer runs. I truly expect to see the best raw talents emerge at the front of the field and along with the drivers that can manage tires. As a result, I believe we can be fairly aggressive with our betting approach this week in H2H match-ups if we can exploit mismatches in talent and/or equipment. In terms of the outright win, I am probably going to lean heavy on practice observations and combine those thoughts with the flat track data that I have studied throughout the week. I think that will be our best opportunity to pick a race winner!
Early Targets
I am doing things a little backwards this week because I want to lock-in a few early H2H match-ups which look very promising. For starters, I am a big believer that Taylor Gray is an extremely talented driver. Not to be confused with older brother Tanner Gray that participates weekly, Taylor Gray is making his 5th appearance of the season. Gray’s prior 4 starts have not gone well but that is not necessarily representative of the speed he has shown. The #17 team has shown plenty of speed all season and if Gray can just avoid trouble, he provides value because he is paired against bottom-tier talent. Meanwhile, Derek Kraus is another driver that, in my opinion, is being vastly underrated in current betting odds. Kraus has finished 9th or better in 4 of the last 6 starts and is starting to put together some late-season momentum similar to what we witnessed last year. Despite the improved performance, Kraus is also another driver that is currently paired against bottom-tier talent and I would not be surprised if he loses a lot of value after Friday’s on-track activities.
Practice Observations and Betting Targets
Earlier today, Truck Series teams had nearly a full hour of practice in preparation for tonight’s return to IRP. As a warning to bettors, the final speed charts from practice can be a touch misleading as several drivers conducted mock qualifying runs at the tail end of the session. When the dust settled, Grant Enfinger had posted the fastest lap at 109.575mph. In terms of observations, Chandler Smith, Corey Heim, and Zane Smith showed the most speed off the truck in the opening parts of practice.
As the session progressed, guys like Ben Rhodes, Ty Majeski, and Matt DiBenedetto were among the guys that exceeded expectations in my opinion. Personally, I have had my eye on Rhodes going into the weekend. Despite not performing great in recent weeks, Rhodes has traditionally performed well at similar venues and he appeared to be among the front-runners once practice concluded. The question is can we trust the #99 team to maintain their speed throughout the night? Ultimately, I thought Chandler Smith was probably the best truck/driver combination overall in practice however I believe Zane Smith and Corey Heim are easily within striking distance. Ben Rhodes is the driver that I would label as a dark horse.
Draftkings TSport 200 Optimal Lineup
*TBD after qualifying*
2022 TSport 200 Race Picks
*Final*
Chandler Smith +450 (1 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1000 (.75 unit)
H2H Match-ups and Props
Taylor Gray -110 over Jake Garcia (3 units)
Zane Smith -110 over Carson Hocevar (2 units)
Ben Rhodes -115 over Grant Enfinger (2 units)
Matt Crafton +400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
