2022 Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday June 12th, 2022. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Sonoma Raceway
TV: FOX

NASCAR’s Cup Series will get another taste of road course racing on Sunday when the green flag waves for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. Earlier today, Kyle Larson put the #5 car on the pole with a lap of 92.111mph to earn his 2nd pole of the season. Larson is the defending winner of the Toyota/Save Mart 350, which took place last year and just so happened to be Larson’s 1st road course victory of his career. Larson went on to win 3 road course events in 2021 and will look for an encore performance at Sonoma on Sunday as the overall betting favorite.

While Larson’s victory in last year’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 will surely be mentioned often on Sunday, I would still preach that the relevance of historical narratives have been decimated with the Next Gen Car this season. For example, Martin Truex Jr is the all-time wins lead (3) at Sonoma among active drivers. Truex has also been one of the top drivers in the sport for the last several years yet Truex is statistically on pace for his worst season since 2014 with the Next Gen Car, meaning those historical narratives can be somewhat misleading.

Obviously betting the Cup Series has been difficult this season but I do believe that performance trends are starting to stabilize and I am hoping that leads to better opportunities as the season progresses. Traditionally, road course events have been favorable for bettors if you can avoid bad luck which bit us again in the Truck Series earlier today. However, I do believe we will have some advantage plays on Sunday in the realm of H2H match-ups and perhaps we can find some value in futures bets as well. Let’s discuss the drivers that bettors should keep on their radar going into Sunday.

Practice Notes

Aside from the qualifying effort earlier today, Kyle Larson was also one of the strongest cars in Saturday’s practice as well which strengthens the argument for a repeat victory. Typically, teammate Chase Elliott is the driver that everyone fears on the road courses but Elliott is actually winless in Sonoma with just two top 5 finishes. Elliott actually posted the best 5 lap average in practice among all drivers in Saturday’s session and I believe he will also be good on long runs which is important at Sonoma due to the tire wear.

Strictly in terms of practice observations, Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain were also relatively fast on the speed charts behind the Hendrick Motorsports duo. Ironically, Busch and Chastain battled out front for the entire DoorDash 250 earlier today in the Truck Series which ended in a trip to victory lane for Rowdy. With Busch’s performance this season, I do believe he is worthy of betting consideration. I would say the same for Chastain but I fear that Sonoma is an excellent place for Chastain to get some payback after several weeks of aggressive driving that have rubbed several drivers the wrong way.

Behind some of the popular names in the Cup Series, I thought Chris Buescher, Erik Jones, and Christopher Bell all had solid afternoons in terms of practice and qualifying sessions. Buescher was the biggest surprise story of the afternoon. Buescher led for a large portion of practice and then qualified the #17 in the 3rd position which is his 2nd best starting spot of the year behind the pole winning performance at Dover. On the other end of the spectrum, Martin Truex Jr, Chase Briscoe, and Denny Hamlin were among the names that did not impress in Saturday’s sessions. Truex and Briscoe are well-known road course talents but appeared to be off the mark in practice. While I would like to fade Truex, I also understand that his knack for saving tires will likely have the #19 moving forward throughout the afternoon.

Betting Targets

I do believe that both Elliott and Larson are the deserving favorites going into Sunday. However, I am putting an emphasis on drivers with long-run speed because the tire fall off will be significant. In that scenario, I prefer Elliott over Larson despite his winless status in Sonoma. Another driver that I believe deserves some attention in all formats is Kurt Busch. We have seen the Toyotas improve their performance in recent weeks and Busch broke through with a surprise victory at Kansas. What you may not know is that Kurt Busch has a lucrative 6.4 average finishing position at Sonoma over the last 10 races which is by far the best in the series. With the momentum, current performance, and driving style needed to contend at Sonoma, Kurt Busch is a value option that should be considered.

In terms of H2H options, I am going to throw out some established names that you probably would not correlate as strong road course talents. Drivers that fit into this category that I am high on this weekend include the likes of Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman. Bowman had a pretty mediocre practice and qualifying session on Saturday which will result in a 19th place starting position. However, I believe Bowman is one of the most improved road course talents in the series which includes a runner-up finish back at COTA which is among the most challenging road courses in America. I also believe Bowman will be one of those drivers that really excels at the latter part of runs when the tires start falling off. For Reddick, he is not known for his road course skills but he has captured top 5 finishes in his last two starts at these venues going back to the ROVAL (2nd) last fall and COTA (5th) earlier this season.

Additional drivers trending in the right direction: Michael McDowell, Erik Jones, and Chris Buescher
Drivers trending in the wrong direction: AJ Allmendinger, William Byron, and Chase Briscoe

2022 Draftkings Toyota/Save Mart 350 Optimal Lineup

2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Elliott +350 (1 unit)
Tyler Reddick +1600 (.5 unit)
Kurt Busch +2200 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +4000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Tyler Reddick -115 over Daniel Suarez (3 units)
Alex Bowman +100 over William Byron (3 units)
Martin Truex Jr -105 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)
Erik Jones +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace to be top Toyota and Chase Elliott to be top Chevrolet +20000 (.25 unit)
Kurt Busch to be top Toyota, Kevin Harvick to be top Ford, and Chase Elliott to be top Chevrolet +25000 (.25 unit)