2022 Toyota Owners 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday April 3rd, 2022. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Richmond Raceway
TV: FOX

Our betting picks have been on fire over the last few weeks with 7 straight winners that have yielded for 37.25 units of profit. After a slow start to the season, we have finally built a profitable cushion and we hope to keep things rolling with Sunday’s running of the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway. Earlier today, Ryan Blaney captured his 2nd straight pole award with a fast time of 117.982 mph. Blaney will get the opportunity to lead the field to the green but there are numerous drivers that could get into contention on Sunday with the debut of the Next Gen Car at Richmond.

Before qualifying today, Cup Series teams had an opportunity to participate in a brief practice session that was split into two groups. At the end of practice, Kyle Busch had the fastest time on the speed charts and I would even venture to say that all of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars looked pretty strong. Team performance has not been nearly as important with the Next Gen Car so I’m not necessarily sure if it was a manufacturer trend or simply the fact JGR has some of the best drivers at Richmond in the likes of Busch, Martin Truex, and Denny Hamlin which have combined for 12 victories at Richmond.

Obviously, historical trends have not necessarily extended into 2022 with the parity of the Cup Series’ Next Gen Car. Through 6 races, the Cup Series has produced 6 different winners including 3 first-time winners which speaks volumes to the equality in the garage with this new car. Personally, I have always enjoyed Richmond Raceway from a handicapping perspective. Bettors need to account for a little bit of everything. Drivers typically make the most speed at Richmond as opposed to equipment and we also have to consider the long-run speed factor. In today’s Xfinity Series race, the pace dropped off by nearly 3 seconds over the course of green flag runs therefore we must remember that those drivers with good long-run driving styles should provide extra value this week.

Handicapping Strategy

I have a rather unique approach to this week’s race at Richmond. Since we have seen so much parity in the Cup Series this year, I am specifically targeting drivers that have shown strong historical results at Richmond in lesser dominant equipment. As stated before, the driver dictates a lot of the outright speed and long-run speed at Richmond. Therefore, drivers that have performed well at Richmond sub-elite equipment should provide value this week with the Next Gen Car. As a result, I strongly expect H2H match-ups to be the key to success this week. In terms of futures (win) bets, I would make the note that perhaps we can find some value on the top guys that did not qualify well. There were several drivers like Kyle Larson and Joey Logano who qualified poorly but displayed really good “race” speed in today’s brief practice session. Therefore, perhaps we can scalp some value on some of the top favorites on the heels of subpar qualifying efforts.

Betting Targets

Admittedly, it has not been easy to predict winners in the Cup Series this season and I say that after hitting Ross Chastain at 25 to 1 odds last week. However, I am not going to back away from sharing my thoughts either. In terms of the outright victory, Martin Truex Jr and Joey Logano are the drivers that appear to be checking off all the right boxes. Truex is masterful at long-run speed at Richmond and with the improved speed unloaded by Joe Gibbs Racing, the #19 cannot be ignored especially after securing wins in 3 of the last 5 races at Richmond. Meanwhile, Joey Logano did not have the greatest qualifying effort but Richmond is one of his best tracks statistically. Both Logano and Ryan Blaney displayed excellent race speed and Logano’s driving style is very compatible with Richmond Raceway.

I’m almost a little afraid at how many drivers I like as potential dark horses on Sunday. Kevin Harvick displayed one of his best practices of the season in today’s brief session but I’m not sure if I have the confidence to bet on the #4 in any type of format based on current performance. However, drivers like Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, and Chase Briscoe are worthy of dark horse potential. Chastain has likely graduated out of the dark horse category with last week’s victory but I still believe his success is not being given enough respect. Chastain leads the Cup Series with 4 top 5 finishes which is double the amount of top 5 finishes anyone else has produced. It also helps that TrackHouse Racing appears to be improving at a notable pace.

For Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe, I feel like this is an excellent opportunity for either driver to challenge for the victory. Briscoe captured his 1st win of the season at Phoenix and is an outstanding short-track talent. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell has always run well at Richmond despite his limited experience. Bell won 3 times in the Xfinity Series at Richmond and has produced finishes of 15th, 4th, and 3rd through 3 Cup Series starts. As a result, Bell is one of my favorite betting targets in all formats on Sunday.

For low-tier H2H and fantasy targets, please don’t overlook guys like Aric Almirola and Austin Dillon as options that could bring cheap value to both fantasy line-ups and lower tier H2H match-ups!

Draftkings Toyota Owners 400 Optimal Lineup

2022 Toyota Owners 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +900 (.75 unit)
Joey Logano +1200 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +1400 (.75 unit)
Kevin Harvick +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Christopher Bell +125 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Erik Jones -115 over Daniel Suarez (2 units)
Ty Dillon -150 over Todd Gilliland (1 unit)
Chase Briscoe +250 wins Group E (Bowman, Almirola, Ku. Busch)(1 unit)