2022 Tennessee Lottery 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday June 25th, 2022. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Nashville Speedway
TV: USA

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take the 2nd leg of the weekend at Nashville Speedway on Saturday with the running of the Tennessee Lottery 250. Unlike the Cup Series, the Xfinity Series previously competed at Nashville Speedway on a regular basis from 2001-2011. After a 10 year hiatus, the Xfinity Series returned to Nashville in 2021 and it produced a historic moment with Kyle Busch earning his 100th series victory. On Saturday, the Xfinity Series returns for more action in Music City as we prepare for another betting opportunity at Nashville!

In the 2022 edition of the Tennessee Lottery 250, there will only be one full-time Cup Series participant in Tyler Reddick who returns to the #48 team with Big Machine Racing following a win at Texas in his last start in the series. The former two-time Xfinity Series champion could easily be considered the best driving talent in the field but I still would not list Reddick as a sure thing based on the equipment factor. Besides Reddick, the only other notable mentions on the entry list includes Friday night’s Truck Series winner Ryan Preece who will be piloting the #5 for B.J. McLeod Motorsports and Trevor Bayne who will be behind the wheel of the #18 for Joe Gibbs Racing for the 5th time this season.

With those drivers mentioned along with the Xfinity Series’ regulars, I don’t think anyone stands out as the undeniable favorite. Rookie sensation Ty Gibbs has never competed at Nashville Speedway so despite his incredible talent and 3 victories this season, I have to downgrade Gibbs to some degree at an unfamiliar venue that does not necessarily favor the most aggressive drivers. In last year’s race, Justin Allgaier was the main frontrunner among the series regulars and I believe Allgaier will be a driver to keep on everyone’s radar again this week. Allgaier has traditionally excelled on the flatter surfaces and that is something to keep in mind for racing at Nashville.

Practice Notes

Qualifying for the Tennessee Lottery 250 will not take place until noon on Saturday just a few hours before the green flag. Furthermore, cars will be impounded following qualifying which means teams will not be able to make any changes to the cars. While qualifying could lend some insight into overnight changes, I would still encourage bettors to lock-in the majority of bets prior to qualifying if you are worried about diminishing value or simply worried about the time for odds to come back up after qualifying.

On Friday, the Xfinity Series participated in a full 50 minute practice session which gave us our first look at race speed observations. Sheldon Creed posted the fastest lap of the session at 155.824mph but it is worth noting that Creed’s top time was a mock qualifying run. Behind Creed, AJ Allmendinger was arguably among the strongest drivers on the lap charts. Allmendinger led the fastest 5 and 10 lap categories. Perhaps more importantly, all of the Kaulig Racing cars showed speed which included positive signs from both Daniel Hemric and Landon Cassill. Allmendinger was surprisingly strong in this race last year so if the Kaulig Racing cars have brought some additional speed this week as it appears, the #16 gets an instant nod of the cap for consideration on Saturday.

Behind AJ Allmendinger and the speed flexed by Kaulig Racing, Ty Gibbs and Ryan Preece were the most impressive drivers on the stopwatch. Gibbs showed some excellent long-run speed which is surprising considering he has never turned a lap at Nashville. Meanwhile, Ryan Preece continued to show his love for Nashville Speedway with the best overall average throughout the entire practice. Preece is not necessarily a guy that I had pegged to contend for the victory in the #5 with B.J McLeod Motorsports which is a mid to bottom-tier team. However, Preece is definitely getting the best the #5 car has to offer.

Betting Targets and Fades

In terms of the outright victory based on all handicapping angles, I am giving the edge to Ty Gibbs and AJ Allmendinger going into Saturday’s event. With Gibbs being so fast off the truck, I think he will likely get better as the weekend progresses. Meanwhile, I feel like Allmendinger is the best semi-sharp play on the board with bigger names like Reddick, Bayne, and Preece potentially stealing some of the spotlight. With that being said, don’t back off of Justin Allgaier based on practice or even qualifying results on Saturday. Allgaier is one of the rare drivers that typically runs much better than he practices or qualifies, therefore they may be some additional betting value on Saturday on the #7 car especially if Allgaier does not have a strong qualifying effort.

In terms of H2H or fantasy options, Justin Allgaier is going to be a name that I strongly favor in all formats for the reasons listed above. I’m just hoping we can steal some betting value from a mundane qualifying effort. Behind Allgaier, Daniel Hemric, Riley Herbst, and Parker Retzlaff are additional names that I will have a close eye on Saturday. I mentioned earlier the speed of Kaulig Racing and Daniel Hemric performed well in this race last year before getting a relatively poor finish. Riley Herbst has been fast throughout the weekend and stood out in practices. Meanwhile, Retzlaff is making just his 5th start of the year and is listed as a bottom-tier driver. However, Retzlaff has been very impressive in his few starts and consistently battling in the top 15 which should be valuable for where he is currently listed in terms of betting odds.

For drivers on the other end of the spectrum that will likely garner fade consideration, I have guys like Tyler Reddick, Sheldon Creed, and perhaps Sam Mayer on my fade watch. Personally, I just don’t think Reddick deserves the overwhelming attention that he is getting in sub-par equipment. At a track where momentum and consistency is key, I’m also not sure if Reddick’s aggressive driving style will be able to compensate for the difference which is possible at other venues. For Sheldon Creed, I am simply adding him to the fade list because of the fast time in practice and perhaps some knee-jerk reactions from casuals. Creed has talent but 2022 has not been the rookie campaign that the #2 team expected. Based on current odds, there are better drivers in the same odd’s range. Lastly, Sam Mayer is a driver that I am throwing in solely based on practice observations and admittedly that is not always the most reliable angle. However, Mayer and the #1 team appeared to be really struggling on Friday and perhaps warrants fade consideration.

2022 Draftkings Tennessee Lottery 250 Optimal Lineup

2022 Tennessee Lottery 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +500 (1 unit)
Ty Gibbs +600 (1 unit)
AJ Allmendinger +1000 (1 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ty Gibbs -110 over Josh Berry (3 units)
AJ Allmendinger -110 over Sam Mayer (3 units)
Daniel Hemric -130 over Austin Hill (2 units)