2022 SUNOCO Go Rewards 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday August 20th, 2022. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Watkins Glen International
TV: USA

After a rare off week, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series returns to action on Saturday with the running of the SUNOCO Go Rewards 200 at Watkins Glen. So far this season, AJ Allmendinger has been nothing short of dominant at the road courses. In fact, Allmendinger has won 3 of the 4 road course races this season in the series with the only exception coming from Ty Gibbs’ victory at Road America. Now Allmendinger will return to the site of his first career Cup Series victory, back in 2014, with a ton of momentum as the clear betting favorite for Saturday’s return to the Glen.

Similar to what we saw back at Indianapolis, we have an abundance of Cup Series’ drivers presence again this week. Among the most notable names include Kyle Larson (#88), William Byron (#17), Cole Custer (#07) and Ross Chastain (#92) will be participating to help sharpen their skills for Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen. Based on those entries, I have to think Custer is simply trying to get additional laps of preparation because he has never been a really strong road course talent. Chastain on the other hand will drive anything when he is given the chance and this will be his 3rd start in the #92 for Mario Gosselin. In the prior two starts, Chastain took the sub-average equipment to finishes of 17th (COTA) and 4th (Indianapolis G.P). As a result, I am not exactly considering Chastain as a favorite but I am also not going to completely ignore his chances either because whether you love him or hate him; he remains extremely talented and gets the best of his equipment.

For the rest of Saturday’s field, there are quite a few part-time drivers that will be participating and none are more important than Kyle Larson who will be stepping into the #88 for J.R. Motorsports. Larson’s only prior start this season in the Xfinity Series came back at Road America where he won the pole, led 31 laps, but unfortunately finished 2nd to Ty Gibbs. Despite the runner-up finish, Larson is still a top-tier road course talent and he is the defending Cup Series’ winner at Watkins Glen coming from his victory last year. Alongside Larson, Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron will also be joining the fun with JR Motorsports in the #17 car. Byron does not have any former road course wins on his resume but he always seems to run well when given the opportunity. As a result, both Larson and Byron will be among the favorites this week with Allmendinger and Gibbs.

Betting Strategy

My road course strategy has been pretty consistent this season and I don’t have any plans to deviate this week. I believe this will likely be a 3-horse race for the win among Larson, Allmendinger, and Gibbs and perhaps in that order. Current betting odds do not offer hardly any value on those particular drivers and while we still may take some smaller wagers on the favorites; the bulk of the betting value will be found in H2H match-ups this week. For match-up purposes, I tend to put my focus on the Xfinity Series but we can usually be fairly confident in all match-ups that yield value because Watkins Glen is a fairly favorable handicapping venue if you can just avoid the bad luck.

Road Course Loop Data

Since this is the 5th road course event of the season for the Xfinity Series, I wanted to show bettors the loop data stats for the prior road course races this season because this should be our baseline for expectations this weekend. Since I believe match-ups will yield the most value, we should be sure our selections run parallel to the major data elements (avg. rating, finish, etc) in the table below.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
AJ Allmendinger	122.8	13.3	6.3	2.3	8.0	63	35	76	231
Ty Gibbs	113.7	2.8	17.0	7.8	10.5	-41	37	49	231
Ross Chastain	109.0	10.0	2.5	10.5	7.5	-33	3	14	108
Austin Hill	104.2	7.3	9.5	4.5	9.0	-44	3	0	231
Noah Gragson	93.9	9.3	13.0	7.8	11.5	46	0	6	231
Justin Allgaier	89.7	10.8	8.8	13.3	10.5	2	2	8	231
Brandon Jones	87.4	27.5	11.3	12.3	15.3	-15	3	0	231
Sheldon Creed	83.2	8.5	5.8	23.0	14.5	-113	5	1	200
Sam Mayer	82.2	6.0	21.0	17.5	18.3	-43	4	3	168
Alex Labbe	81.6	15.0	17.0	18.3	15.5	1	2	0	226
Riley Herbst	78.7	10.5	20.3	18.5	16.5	22	0	0	191
Josh Berry	78.6	17.0	13.3	12.0	15.8	35	1	5	231
Daniel Hemric	75.8	15.0	13.0	20.5	15.8	-38	0	0	210
Jeremy Clements	72.5	20.5	17.3	21.5	18.5	22	1	0	200
Brett Moffitt	69.7	14.8	17.8	19.5	19.8	-34	1	0	207
Andy Lally	67.6	20.0	16.0	18.7	17.3	-2	1	3	185
Landon Cassill	66.4	14.5	13.0	22.3	17.5	-50	0	0	207
Anthony Alfredo	64.3	16.0	24.3	21.3	19.8	3	0	0	217
Myatt Snider	63.7	25.8	17.3	18.5	19.8	15	0	19	206
Preston Pardus	61.7	17.0	24.0	18.0	21.3	11	0	0	156
Ryan Sieg	59.3	30.0	26.0	16.0	21.5	-17	0	2	231
Jeb Burton	56.6	24.0	19.5	28.8	22.0	-52	0	0	149
Josh Bilicki	55.3	20.0	20.5	24.0	22.0	51	0	0	94
Stefan Parsons	51.4	29.5	27.0	22.5	24.5	-14	0	0	119
Bayley Currey	48.4	31.8	28.5	26.3	26.0	51	0	0	185
Brandon Brown	45.6	32.5	23.5	25.0	26.8	2	0	0	203
J.J. Yeley	44.9	35.5	31.0	18.5	27.5	6	0	0	121
Scott Heckert	41.8	28.0	30.3	25.3	27.3	40	0	0	183
Patrick Gallagher	41.2	32.7	29.3	23.0	27.7	-33	0	0	156
Joe Graf Jr	32.7	33.7	32.7	30.3	30.7	-15	0	0	138

Betting Targets

Once again, practice and qualifying will be held early Saturday morning at Watkins Glen meaning I will update everyone with final thoughts after on-track activities. My current betting targets are largely focused on expectations from the prior road course races this season. With that being said, as it currently stands I have Larson as the driver to beat going into Saturday. Despite Allmendinger’s brilliance this year at the road courses, JR Motorsports cars are simply running better and I’m giving Larson the slight edge over Allmendinger if I had to rank the favorites. However, I do believe Larson, Allmendinger, and Gibbs will all be battling for the victory and it could simply come down to execution that decides who is out front. Lastly, if you are looking to bet Allmendinger, I would suggest gambling on his odds getting better after qualifying. The #16 team has struggled at times with qualifying and that may provide an opportunity to get a better number after qualifying.

For betting match-ups, I still believe Austin Hill is grossly underrated as a road course talent. Granted, Hill’s odds have come down with nearly every road course race this season but he is still in the general range of guys like Noah Gragson, Cole Custer, and others. Personally, I think Hill’s performance in general does not get enough credit as he has compiled top 10 finishes in 11 of the last 12 races. At the road courses specifically, Hill has finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 9th this season. I would put those stats up against any opposing drivers in Hill’s current odds range which keeps him in the category as a prime betting target.

Other drivers that fit that same narrative include the likes of Sheldon Creed, Alex Labbe, and Justin Allgaier. Allgaier might not be the best betting target but I feel like he gets disrespected at these venues despite being a really good road course driver. Allgaier has finished in the top 5 in 2 of 4 road course venues this season yet is sitting at 25-1 odds. Allgaier has consistently been the best performing JR Motorsports driver, among the regulars, and yet is in the same odds range. For Creed and Labbe, they are drivers that just have above average road course skills. Creed seems to always get into trouble or produce poor finishes which makes him a risky betting option; however I still prefer him over anyone in the general odds range. Likewise, I think Labbe is an excellent bottom-tier option for both betting and fantasy purposes.

Practice Recap

Update: Practice and qualifying just concluded at Watkins Glen. William Byron won the pole for today’s SUNOCO Go Rewards 200 and he is followed by all the favorites in Ty Gibbs, Kyle Larson, AJ Allmendinger, and Cole Custer. Personally, I don’t think there were any surprises in terms of practice. All of the top dogs were within a few tenths of each other and again I think this race could be decided by strategy and execution. AJ Allmendinger did post the fastest 5 lap average in the brief session. However, William Byron and Ty Gibbs were in close proximity.

While I don’t think anything truly changed from practice observations, I will say Josh Berry and Austin Hill were not as good as I would have expected on the speed charts. Granted, the brief practice format can have some bias but those drivers just did not have the quality speed that I expected. Meanwhile, guys that did show some signs that exceeded expectations included the likes of Sheldon Creed, Sammy Smith, and Brandon Jones who won Friday’s ARCA Menards race at the Glen.

Draftkings SUNOCO Go Rewards 200 Optimal Lineup

2022 Sunoco Go Rewards 200 Race Picks

*Final*

AJ Allmendinger +320 (1 unit)
Kyle Larson +600 (.5 unit)
Austin Hill +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Austin Hill -115 over Josh Berry (3 units)
Sammy Smith -115 over Conor Mosack (3 units)
Justin Allgaier +125 over Cole Custer (2 units)
Justin Allgaier +250 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)