2022 SRS Distribution 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday May 21st, 2022. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

The Xfinity Series will have the opportunity to take center stage at Texas Motor Speedway on Saturday with the running of the SRS Distribution 250. Following an off week, the Xfinity Series’ will get a taste of 1.5 mile speedway action for the first time in several weeks. In recent weeks, J.R Motorsports has compiled a 3-race win streak stemming from wins from Noah Gragson (Talladega), Josh Berry (Dover), and Justin Allgaier (Darlington). Not only does J.R Motorsports have the momentum but they will some additional firepower on Saturday as William Byron returns to the #88 car in his first Xfinity Series start since 2017.

Along with Byron, Tyler Reddick will also be in action on Saturday in the #48 car for Big Machine Racing. Reddick was among the top guys in both practice and qualifying during Friday’s on-track sessions. Despite being edged by Noah Gragson for the pole in qualifying, Reddick remains one of the bigger added threats to this talented SRS Distribution 250 entry list. Unfortunately, betting odds have not produced any additional value due to the added threats for this weeks’ Xfinity race. In fact, there are currently 6 drivers listed at less than 10-1 odds. As a result, bettors must proceed with caution on Saturday as the ROI will not be great on most selections.

From a betting standpoint, we will have to minimize our risk for all future plays for the SRS Distribution 250 due to the limited ROI. Not only are the odds not great but this is a difficult race to predict with the limited amount of racing in the Xfinity Series this season on the 1.5 mile surfaces. For that reason, I am screaming towards a conservative betting approach and just hope I listen to myself. We did get some observations from today’s earlier sessions and can combine that with some other performance angles in order to set our expectations for Saturday. Therefore, let’s dive into what we can formulate to provide potential betting opportunities.

Performance Observations

Since we have limited data from the 1.5 mile venues this season, I would like to make a few performance observations from Xfinity Series competition. For starters, J.R Motorsports appears to have the edge in the performance department. Not only has the J.R. Motorsports cars won the last 3 races but they have also shown the most speed at the intermediate venues. As a result, I’m giving nods of the caps to the trio of Gragson, Allgaier, and Byron. I’m not necessarily recommending betting on all 3 drivers but just stating that I believe the J.R. Motorsports performance trends will likely continue to favor that direction.

Additional performance observations and notes include the following:

• Ryan Sieg has finished 11th or better in 10 out of 11 races in 2022
• JGR drivers have won 5 of the last 6 races at Texas Motor Speedway
• Former series champion, Daniel Hemric, has not finished inside the top 10 but once in the last 7 races
• Big Machine Racing’s (Reddick) best finish of the season is an 8th place result at Road of America

Betting Targets and Fades

As mentioned above, I favor the J.R Motorsports cars for the outright victory on Saturday especially with their added threat with Byron. Personally, I believe the best value among the J.R. Motorsports cars surround the likes of Justin Allgaier and Josh Berry who are the more underrated options from the J.R. Motorsports brigade. I really like Allgaier’s sharp value with the #7 team’s momentum from Darlington. Additionally, Allgaier has finished in the top 4 in 3 of the last 4 races at Texas. As a result, I believe Allgaier and Berry are strong pivots from the normal favorites.

Since the futures odds have minimal value, I will be focused towards extracting value in H2H match-ups. The drivers that are trending high for H2H targets include Brandon Jones, Ryan Sieg, and possibly Ryan Truex. Truex looked really good in practice but I have not been overly impressed with Truex as a driver in his former opportunities this season. Still, I can’t deny the speed that the #18 displayed during Friday’s on-track activities. Meanwhile, Brandon Jones and Ryan Sieg are two drivers that have performed well this year and continue to fly under the radar. I mentioned above Sieg has been 11th or better in all but one event this year. While Jones has not been consistent, he provides another backdoor threat after showing impressive speed in practice.

Depending on the additional match-up options that will be released on Saturday, we don’t know where the best match-ups are currently. I can only advise who I think will run well and those who I am staying away from. Among the drivers that I am staying away from, I have Daniel Hemric and William Byron among the “avoid” list. Byron is the overall betting favorite at some online shops and I just don’t think the #88 team did anything to show they deserve that spot. Byron was pretty average in practice and I’m not convinced this #88 team has the same strength as the full-time cars from J.R. Motorsports. Daniel Hemric has some excellent stats at Texas but the #11 team has been fading in recent weeks. In fact, Hemric’s best finish in the last 5 races was a measly 10th at Darlington. Other potential fades include the likes of Tyler Reddick, Sheldon Creed, and Myatt Snider.

Draftkings SRS Distribution 250 Optimal Lineup

2022 SRS Distribution 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +600 (1 unit)
Ty Gibbs +800 (.75 units)
Ryan Truex +1500 (.5 unit)
Brandon Jones +1500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Riley Herbst +500 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Ryan Sieg +1000 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Brandon Jones -110 over Sam Mayer (3 units)
Ryan Truex -110 over Daniel Hemric (3 units)