2022 Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday September 3rd, 2022. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: USA

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will kick off Labor Day weekend at historic Darlington Raceway with the running of the Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200. Back in May, Justin Allgaier tamed the Lady in Black with his victory in the Mahindra Roxor 200. Allgaier defeated teammate Noah Gragson for a 1-2 finish for JR Motorsports and it has been both Allgaier (2) and Gragson that have won the last 3 Xfinity Series events at Darlington Raceway. However, the competition will be stiffer on Saturday as both Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell will suit up to battle for a Darlington trophy!

Both Larson (#17 Hendrick Motorsports) and Bell (#18 Joe Gibbs Racing) will be in premier equipment this week which only strengthens the argument for both drivers. Denny Hamlin was originally scheduled to be in the #18 car this week. Hamlin has been among the best in NASCAR at Darlington over the years with 5 Xfinity Series victories and 4 victories in the Cup Series. However, Hamlin opted to forego Saturday’s race due to soreness stemming from last week’s wreck at Daytona. As a result, Bell will step into the #18 car along with a very diverse lineup that includes part-time starts from John Hunter Nemechek (#26), Ty Dillon (#02), Ross Chastain (#48), and others. As a result, we should have a wide array of areas to extract betting value.

Obviously, both Larson and Bell are making betting odds relatively top heavy this week because of the likelihood that one of those drivers will find victory lane. With that being said, there is some pretty strong value in the Xfinity Series’ regulars like Allgaier, Gragson, and others that have shown success at Darlington as well. Therefore, this could be an opportunity to pivot against the top guys in search of better value and still put our sharpest efforts into our H2H match-ups as an overall cover. Before we finalize any betting options, let’s discuss what should be expected in Saturday’s 200 mile event at Darlington Raceway.

Darlington Fast Facts – Xfinity Series

• Noah Gragson has finished 8th or better in all 6 career starts at Darlington and has finished in the top 5 in 4 of his last 5 starts
• Christopher Bell’s best finish is 4th in two career starts at Darlington
• AJ Allmendinger’s best finish is 8th in his 3 starts at Darlington Raceway with Kaulig Racing
• Josh Berry has produced +100 average ratings in each of his last two Darlington starts
• Ty Gibbs has posted modest finishes of 16th and 18th in 2 career starts at Darlington
• Ryan Sieg has finished 11th or better in the last 5 starts at Darlington Raceway
• The eventual race winner has only started outside of the top 10 on 3 occasions in the last 20 races at Darlington Raceway

Betting Targets

The Xfinity Series will have practice and qualifying early Saturday which will provide bettors with our only glimpse of on-track activity before Saturday’s green flag. Obviously, I want to have a chance to observe practice times before finalizing betting picks. While drivers typically make the most time at Darlington as opposed to equipment/setup, it is still important that drivers are in the ballpark from a speed standpoint. One of the reasons Denny Hamlin has been so successful at Darlington throughout the years is because his extremely smooth driving style pays huge dividends when it comes to preserving tire wear. However, we have seen Hamlin vulnerable when he does not get the long green flag runs as well and that could be the case for some of the front-runners tomorrow depending on whether they are strong on the short or long runs. Therefore, bettors should be paying close attention to the guys that show strong speed in practice because this is a venue where upsets can happen.

I will update my final thoughts after tomorrow’s practice. As for now without seeing any on-track activities and if I had to pick a couple of guys that could upset the overall favorites, Noah Gragson and Josh Berry are among my top candidates. In fact, I believe both Gragson and Berry can be targeted in all formats. While Allgaier has 2 victories in the last 3 races at Darlington, Allgaier has also been hit or miss at Darlington throughout his career. I think Gragson has shown the most impressive driving in recent weeks aside from Gibbs and I also believe he has a really strong driving style for Darlington. For that reason, I think Gragson is the best option among all the drivers within his odds range. For Josh Berry, he is getting excellent dark horse value as it currently stands. Berry posted a runner-up finish in his 1st Darlington start with JR Motorsports but seems to be a forgotten option going into the weekend. While I like Berry more as a H2H betting option, he can be considered for futures options as well.

If you are wanting to pull the trigger on one of the favorites, I do like Kyle Larson over Christopher Bell however, I’m still not exactly eager to pull the trigger on the current price tags for either driver. I just think the JR Motorsports/Hendrick cars have shown more outright speed this year which makes Larson dangerous because he also runs really well at Darlington. With that in mind, I still prefer H2H bets as the best early option before Saturday’s on-track activities. Aside from the names already mentioned, I really like guys like Ryan Sieg and Landon Cassill who are a couple of subpar options that should outrun their current betting odds.

Practice Observations and Final Thoughts

Update: Practice and qualifying just concluded at Darlington Raceway. Surprisingly, Brandon Jones earned the pole for today’s Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200. Jones showed some solid speed in practice and then backed it up with a fast lap of 165.453mph. Of course, fast lap speed is only half the battle at Darlington so let’s discuss what we witnessed in practices as well.

In practice, I thought Noah Gragson clearly looked like the car to beat. Gragson had the best speed especially on the long-run. I was actually surprised to see Kyle Larson did not have the “elite” type of speed that we would expect. While I would not write off Larson, he definitely did not have tremendous speed. Christopher Bell and Sheldon Creed were the other drivers that were really impressive. Bell is an expected favorite but I was really surprised with the speed from Creed as he showed excellent speed over the first 5-10 laps. Obviously, Creed will need to show he can maintain that speed but it was a positive note in the right direction.

Other drivers trending in the right direction included John Hunter Nemechek, Sam Mayer, and Josh Berry for potential H2H/fantasy options. I thought some of the big names like Allgaier, Gibbs, and Allmendinger were relatively unimpressive in practice but again that’s not to say those guys could not be solid on the long-run which is where most time is made at Darlington.

Draftkings Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 Optimal Lineup

2022 Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Christopher Bell +500 (1 unit)
Noah Gragson +800 (1 unit)
Josh Berry +1400 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Noah Gragson -125 over Ty Gibbs (2 units)
Ryan Sieg -115 over Ty Dillon (2 units)
Landon Cassill -110 over Sheldon Creed (2 units)
Sam Mayer +500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Ryan Sieg +1600 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)