2022 SpeedyCash.com 220 Race Picks

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday May 20th, 2022. 8:30PM (EST)
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

A full weekend of racing will take place at Texas Motor Speedway this weekend. While Cup Series’ teams will be preparing for the prestigious All-Star Race, both the Camping World Truck Series and Xfinity Series will host points-paying events on Friday and Saturday. The action begins Friday night with the running of the SpeedyCash.com 220. Following last week’s victory at Kansas, Zane Smith now leads the Truck Series with 3 victories in just 8 races and some could argue that he has dethroned John Hunter Nemechek as the weekly overall favorite.

Last week, we put together a pretty solid betting card for the Truck Series at Kansas. Not only did we connect with Smith’s victory but I thought most of our betting targets were solid. In last week’s preview, I provided historical trends and some early 2022 observations to establish the baseline around our expectations. As we dive into another cookie-cutter 1.5 mile speedway, a lot of those same expectations are in-play again this weekend. Therefore, I am going to keep Friday’s preview for the SpeedyCash.com 220 relatively brief compared to my normal weekly previews since not much has changed.

Since we are dealing with another 1.5 mile venue, I think the performance trends remain in-tact this weekend. From the driver seat, there are some notable differences to driving around Kansas compared to Texas. However, the fast lap times are still going to correlate in a linear progression. As a result, I believe bettors can be slightly aggressive if we find odds and betting match-ups that yield sharp value. Obviously we are not going to find much value on the outright favorites this week consider Smith and JHN have swelled to huge favorites along with Ross Chastain who will be participating again this week behind the #141 for Niece Motorsports.

Betting Picks Message

Before we dive straight into betting targets, I want to highlight a couple of quick notes. For starters, I will likely have the majority of the betting card for the SpeedyCash.com 220 locked-in early Friday afternoon. Truck Series’ teams and drivers will get the opportunity to practice and qualify Friday evening and I know everyone loves to digest practice observations. However, the timeline between the time qualifying concludes and the green flag waves will create a narrow margin for bookmakers to post betting odds following tomorrow’s sessions. Therefore, I would strongly encourage bettors to have most of their bets in before on-track activities kick off Friday afternoon.

Betting Targets and Fades

As I have stated in other previews, I am not a fan of Ross Chastain at heavy favorite odds in the Truck Series from the equipment factor of Niece Motorsports. Chastain is an extremely talented driver that can still get the job done but he has an uphill battle in the performance department. As a result, I just can’t justify backing Chastain at ridiculously saturated betting odds. Instead, I am going to pivot towards John Hunter Nemechek as the favorite to target this week. Nemechek and the #4 team have to be feeling the pressure after they were beaten again on a 1.5 mile surface which has been the bread of butter for not only Nemechek but the entire Kyle Busch Motorsports operation. All of the KBM trucks displayed speed last week but missed the mark in other areas. Expect those trucks to bounce back this week!

As a result, Chandler Smith definitely jumps into the betting target range. Smith is getting some decent value thanks to the heavy chalk on the top 3 and he appears to be among the most improved drivers in the series. Meanwhile, Carson Hocevar and Ty Majeski are among other names that have truly impressed from the driver seat this year. Hocevar has over-exceeded in nearly every race meanwhile Majeski had his best performance of his career last week at Kansas which resulted in a runner-up finish. I really like the way Majeski is trending coming off top 5 finishes at Darlington and Kansas which means he deserves betting consideration on Friday. Lastly, I would throw out Derek Kraus as a medium-low range H2H option based on the way the #19 team is trending as well.

Drivers that I believe are good fades this week include the likes of Grant Enfinger and Matt DiBenedetto. Both drivers secured top 10 finishes last week but both finishes were optimal results compared to how both teams performed. DiBenedetto is an average at best, style betting option in the equipment he is driving. Meanwhile, Enfinger has remained among the upper echelon of betting targets. However, I just have not seen the consistency to expect Enfinger to run upfront at an intermediate style track. If it was a shorter surface, I might think differently. Lastly, keep Stewart Friesen on the fade radar as well. The #52 continues to show elite speed in practices but seems to fade as these races wind down. Perhaps there may be a fade option on the #52 especially if the team displays another strong practice performance.

*Practice Update

Practice concluded just a few moments ago and luckily our betting angles were in-line with practice observations. Ty Majeski, who has been one of our main betting targets, topped the charts with a fast lap of 178.40mph. Majeski edged out Zane Smith in the fast lap department by just two one-hundredths of a second. Meanwhile, Stewart Friesen, Ross Chastain, and Derek Kraus rounded out the top 5 in single lap speed.

In terms of overall speed, Stewart Friesen had another all-star performance in practice. I thought this might happen and mentioned above this may provide a fade opportunity. Other drivers that appeared strong in race trim included Zane Smith and Ross Chastain who are among the overall favorites tonight. I would also throw out names like Christian Eckes and Tyler Ankrum as drivers that showed really good speed and are trending well above pre-practice expectations.

Draftkings SpeedyCash.com 220 Optimal Lineup

2022 SpeedyCash.com 220 Race Picks

*Final*

John Hunter Nemechek +350 (1.5 units)
Chandler Smith +700 (.75 units)
Corey Heim +1600 (.5 unit)
Ty Majeski +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Ty Majeski +220 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)