2022 Sparks 300 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday October 1st, 2022. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: USA
The Xfinity Series will take the prime spotlight in Saturday’s NASCAR double header with the Camping World Truck Series. Shortly after the Chevy Silverado 250 concludes, the Xfinity Series will wave the green flag for the Sparks 300 at Talladega Superspeedway. Back in April, Noah Gragson captured his 2nd win of the season in the Ag-Pro 300 at Talladega. Gragson is currently the hottest driver in the sport with 4 straight victories tying a record that Sam Ard has held in the series dating back to 1983. On Saturday, Gragson will go for a historic 5th straight victory at the most unpredictable track in NASCAR!
I’m sure Gragson would have liked his chances, at a 5th straight, better at a traditional oval this week as he attempts a historic feat. However, Gragson is the defending winner and has been a great superspeedway driver over the last two seasons so his chances are not completely in vain. Still, we know the superspeedway races are unpredictable and that fact was proven yet again back at Daytona when Jeremy Clements shocked the sport with a surprise victory. Ironically, that was the last race that Noah Gragson did not win and it would not be surprising to see another unfamiliar lane in victory lane at Talladega again this week.
If you look at the Xfinity Series playoff race which will hold its first elimination race next week at the ROVAL, there are essentially 6 cars that are in a good position of advancing going into Talladega. However, nobody is completely safe and Saturday’s race at Talladega will be really important for a lot of drivers and that includes points for stage racing. As a result, this race has the potential to be very chaotic and volatile for bettors. I rarely place any wagers in the form of H2H bets at superspeedway races but even my futures and prop bets will be very conservative this week. We have worked very hard to grind out profits this year in perhaps the toughest betting season to date and I’m not throwing away any extra units for charity this week.
Xfinity Series Superspeedway Loop Data
Before we narrow in on the targets we do take this week, let’s first take a look at the loop data from all the superspeedway races this season. With the additional two races at Atlanta which mirror superspeedway racing, we have a larger in-season data sample to show performance trends of this style of racing. Without surprise Austin Hill, Noah Gragson, and AJ Allmendinger have been the only drivers with triple digit average ratings this season. Hill has been outstanding in all the superspeedway events with victories at Daytona and Atlanta. Gragson is the defending Talladega winner and as I said before the hottest driver in the sport. Meanwhile, Allmendinger has remarkably finished 3rd or better in 4 of the 5 races this year at superspeedways.
While the Big 3 will be the overall favorites this week and well within the realm of deserving betting attention, I remain focused on the guys that could yield better value. While the below loop data ratings are only a trend of performance and certainly not reliable in a single-race event, I do believe they give insights to the types of drivers that could be in position for an underdog style victory if they can stay out of trouble. With that thought in mind, drivers like Riley Herbst, Sheldon Creed, Brandon Brown, and Jeb Burton are value style plays that are spread across different odds ranges.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|
| Austin Hill | 113.4 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 38 | 17 | 208 | 683 |
| Noah Gragson | 107.3 | 8.4 | 14.0 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 52 | 12 | 109 | 689 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 103.8 | 7.0 | 13.2 | 4.2 | 10.2 | 23 | 16 | 94 | 697 |
| Ty Gibbs | 97.5 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 17.8 | 12.2 | -51 | 8 | 27 | 579 |
| Justin Allgaier | 96.4 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 16.2 | 11.0 | 105 | 20 | 24 | 675 |
| Riley Herbst | 93.2 | 13.6 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 13.2 | 22 | 16 | 2 | 697 |
| Sheldon Creed | 89.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 17.4 | 12.2 | -33 | 16 | 32 | 650 |
| Josh Berry | 86.9 | 6.4 | 15.4 | 16.0 | 13.8 | 33 | 26 | 28 | 675 |
| Landon Cassill | 86.7 | 10.0 | 13.4 | 10.8 | 11.2 | -48 | 8 | 0 | 689 |
| Brandon Brown | 84.8 | 18.0 | 9.0 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 56 | 15 | 14 | 632 |
| Brandon Jones | 83.3 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 16.2 | 13.2 | 17 | 21 | 1 | 679 |
| Ryan Sieg | 82.8 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 18 | 15 | 6 | 682 |
| Daniel Hemric | 78.6 | 9.2 | 15.2 | 24.2 | 16.0 | 63 | 21 | 39 | 585 |
| Jeb Burton | 76.6 | 20.6 | 17.8 | 16.6 | 15.4 | 27 | 14 | 0 | 692 |
| Sam Mayer | 76.6 | 15.4 | 10.6 | 29.4 | 17.8 | 43 | 18 | 2 | 583 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 73.6 | 14.8 | 23.5 | 12.3 | 20.5 | 48 | 14 | 10 | 579 |
| Myatt Snider | 73.3 | 26.8 | 15.8 | 18.2 | 16.0 | 100 | 17 | 2 | 695 |
| Anthony Alfredo | 70.7 | 16.4 | 21.4 | 15.0 | 19.6 | 15 | 21 | 11 | 677 |
| Jeremy Clements | 61.3 | 21.4 | 19.4 | 23.0 | 23.0 | -65 | 8 | 3 | 522 |
| Alex Labbe | 59.8 | 17.8 | 22.8 | 15.5 | 22.8 | -44 | 12 | 0 | 576 |
| Ryan Vargas | 56.0 | 23.8 | 28.2 | 15.4 | 23.6 | -75 | 6 | 1 | 697 |
| J.J. Yeley | 55.7 | 26.6 | 30.2 | 21.0 | 25.0 | -24 | 8 | 2 | 532 |
| Mason Massey | 53.2 | 27.0 | 23.8 | 25.0 | 24.0 | -21 | 7 | 0 | 478 |
| Kyle Sieg | 50.0 | 33.0 | 29.6 | 17.8 | 25.8 | -71 | 3 | 0 | 697 |
| Joe Graf Jr | 48.5 | 25.4 | 23.8 | 25.4 | 26.6 | -114 | 8 | 3 | 649 |
| Bayley Currey | 46.8 | 22.8 | 32.6 | 25.0 | 25.4 | -77 | 12 | 0 | 680 |
| Joey Gase | 46.0 | 31.8 | 26.8 | 21.0 | 27.8 | -20 | 10 | 0 | 520 |
| Josh Williams | 43.4 | 28.2 | 26.8 | 25.2 | 27.8 | -14 | 9 | 0 | 656 |
| Matt Mills | 36.0 | 28.8 | 33.0 | 29.6 | 31.2 | -11 | 3 | 0 | 554 |
Betting Targets
For betting targets for Saturday’s Sparks 300, Austin Hill and AJ Allmendinger should be clear favorites and worthy of anyone’s betting attention. The question is whether you want to bet on the favorites and/or chase better value. The drivers that fall into the value category include the likes of Riley Herbst, Ryan Sieg, and Landon Cassill. Believe it or not, Herbst has consistently been a front-runner at the superspeedways this season with the 2nd highest average running position. Likewise, both Sieg and Cassill have also posted some of their best performances of the season at the superspeedway venues as well. Both Sieg and Cassill are getting the type of value needed to elevate our ROI potential for the drivers in the “intermediate” range betting category.
For dark horse options that could be huge upset winners or betting targets for prop bets, I really like guys like Parker Kligerman, Brandon Brown, and Jeffrey Earnhardt. My reasons for those drivers are different but are based around the “value” narrative. Kligerman is stepping into the #48 car this week which has proven to be competitive this year. I have long thought Kligerman gets the best of his equipment/opportunities and should benefit from the improvement in equipment. Meanwhile, Brandon Brown and Jeffrey Earnhardt are both wild card names that always seem to perform well at the superspeedways. Earnhardt may have some of the best ROI potential on the board so it’s hard to ignore his value.
2022 Sparks 300 Race Picks
*Final*
AJ Allmendinger +1000 (.75 unit)
Riley Herbst +1600 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1600 (.5 unit)
Ryan Sieg +3000 (.5 unit)
Brandon Brown +4000 (.5 unit)
Myatt Snider +10000 (.25 unit)
Jeffrey Earnhardt +10000 (.25 unit)
H2H Match-ups and Props
Anthony Alfredo +900 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Jeffrey Earnhardt +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Jeremy Clements +1400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
