On Sunday, NASCAR’s incredible 2022 campaign will conclude at Phoenix Raceway in the Season Finale 500. Through 35 races, the Cup Series has produced a record tying 19 different winners. We have seen breakout stories among drivers, among organizations, and it has all been possible thanks to the Next Gen Car which has provoked unprecedented parity at NASCAR’s top division. The competition has been razor thin which has produced incredible moments which we saw last week with Ross Chastain’s miracle at Martinsville. The “video game” move earned Chastain the opportunity to be the final driver in the Championship 4 and those 4 drivers will have the opportunity to race for a championship on Sunday in arguably the most competitive season in NASCAR history.
If you don’t already know, the Championship 4 will consist of Chastain, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, and last week’s winner Christopher Bell who kept his championship hopes alive for the 2nd time this year by winning in a must-win scenario. In that group of drivers, Elliott and Logano are the only former Cup Series Champions and have been the more consistent front-runners throughout the season. In fact, Elliott leads the Cup Series with 5 victories on the season and also won the regular season title which helped his playoff journey. However if we have learned anything from this 2022 campaign, it’s that nothing is guaranteed in a single-race format with this new car and that should provide exciting racing yet again going into Sunday’s finale.
While the championship drivers will justifiably get the bulk of the attention this weekend, there are absolutely no guarantees that a championship winner will be victorious this weekend especially with this Next Gen Car. Back in the spring, Chase Briscoe delivered the first big “upset” of the season when he won the Ruoff Mortgage 500k at Phoenix in relatively dominating fashion. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of another upset this Sunday. Earlier today, Joey Logano silenced some of the upset noise by capturing the pole with a lap of 134.389mph which was nearly a half-second better than the pace witnessed back in the spring. However, Logano was followed closely by surprising names like Harrison Burton, Cole Custer, and Ty Gibbs who were among top 10 qualifiers. Therefore, we must consider everyone as we determine the best betting options for the last race of the season!
For those that have followed my handicapping through the years, I preach that some historical trends are more reliable than others depending on the track. However, I would also add that historical trends are less valuable than ever with the Next Gen Car but the data is still useful if you know how to analyze it. On top of historical trends, my handicapping also takes into account in-season performance trends and though that has also been difficult with the Next Gen Car; I believe we can look at performance trends from similar layouts this season to provide a baseline of expectations going into Sunday. As stated earlier, a lot has changed since the Cup Series visited Phoenix back in the spring. As a result, I have compiled loop data stats from Phoenix, both Richmond races, and Loudon which I believe are the best comparable venues. The data below shows how drivers have performed over those 4 races and are merely one piece of the overall handicapping puzzle.
Data reflects races from Phoenix, Richmond (2), and Loudon
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | 113.8 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 43 | 87 | 55 | 1413 |
| Chase Elliott | 109.5 | 14.8 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 57 | 85 | 64 | 1413 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 104.1 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 8 | 97 | 252 | 1320 |
| Ryan Blaney | 103.7 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 31 | 86 | 272 | 1412 |
| Joey Logano | 101.3 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 13.8 | 6.5 | 2 | 57 | 252 | 1411 |
| Denny Hamlin | 99.0 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 57 | 57 | 27 | 1413 |
| Christopher Bell | 97.0 | 9.8 | 15.0 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 44 | 84 | 105 | 1411 |
| William Byron | 95.3 | 3.8 | 11.8 | 10.8 | 8.8 | -28 | 57 | 134 | 1413 |
| Ross Chastain | 91.3 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 10.3 | -10 | 46 | 80 | 1410 |
| Kyle Larson | 89.9 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 16.8 | 9.5 | 7 | 72 | 13 | 1338 |
| Kyle Busch | 88.0 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 40 | 29 | 1 | 1413 |
| Chase Briscoe | 85.7 | 13.5 | 15.3 | 12.5 | 13.5 | -17 | 56 | 107 | 1409 |
| Chris Buescher | 81.9 | 19.5 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 14.3 | -9 | 45 | 0 | 1412 |
| Aric Almirola | 76.3 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 18.0 | 15.5 | -15 | 43 | 0 | 1392 |
| Brad Keselowski | 74.7 | 13.5 | 17.8 | 14.5 | 15.8 | -17 | 20 | 0 | 1411 |
| Tyler Reddick | 72.4 | 16.8 | 18.5 | 16.8 | 17.3 | 63 | 26 | 0 | 1406 |
| Bubba Wallace | 70.0 | 17.8 | 18.8 | 16.0 | 18.0 | 18 | 21 | 0 | 1408 |
| Daniel Suarez | 66.0 | 20.0 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 18.8 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 1411 |
| Austin Dillon | 65.8 | 20.0 | 17.8 | 17.5 | 18.8 | -11 | 26 | 0 | 1410 |
| Austin Cindric | 65.1 | 22.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 18.3 | 18 | 10 | 0 | 1410 |
| Cole Custer | 64.5 | 16.8 | 20.5 | 22.8 | 19.3 | -83 | 16 | 2 | 1407 |
| Alex Bowman | 63.6 | 17.3 | 22.5 | 19.3 | 20.0 | 30 | 42 | 0 | 1114 |
| Erik Jones | 56.6 | 12.5 | 18.8 | 25.5 | 20.8 | -39 | 9 | 0 | 1249 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 53.5 | 25.0 | 24.3 | 21.0 | 23.7 | -6 | 3 | 0 | 1008 |
| Ty Dillon | 52.0 | 27.0 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 23.3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1113 |
| Harrison Burton | 51.7 | 25.5 | 25.0 | 24.5 | 23.3 | -23 | 6 | 3 | 1405 |
| Justin Haley | 50.5 | 29.0 | 24.0 | 21.8 | 24.8 | -6 | 12 | 0 | 1406 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 49.1 | 28.0 | 26.5 | 25.0 | 24.3 | -7 | 22 | 6 | 1404 |
| Todd Gilliland | 48.6 | 24.3 | 23.8 | 24.0 | 25.0 | -32 | 2 | 0 | 1406 |
| Michael McDowell | 39.2 | 23.8 | 29.8 | 28.5 | 29.0 | -35 | 36 | 0 | 1399 |
| Corey LaJoie | 36.4 | 28.3 | 32.5 | 31.8 | 31.3 | -8 | 1 | 0 | 922 |
| Landon Cassill | 33.8 | 26.3 | 32.3 | 30.7 | 32.0 | -26 | 1 | 0 | 1093 |
| Cody Ware | 30.6 | 32.3 | 32.8 | 32.8 | 32.8 | -4 | 1 | 0 | 1236 |
| B.J. McLeod | 26.1 | 34.0 | 35.0 | 34.0 | 34.5 | -12 | 0 | 0 | 1086 |
Before qualifying earlier today, Cup Series’ teams had a rare full practice session on Friday in preparation for this championship finale. At the end of the 50 minute session, Ross Chastain was the fastest man in practice with a lap of 133.240mph. Obviously, Chastain was not able to backup the fast lap in practice considering the #1 team posted an uninspiring 25th place qualifying effort. However, I will say that Chastain had much better race speed and I would expect them to find their way to the front on Sunday. In terms of race speed, I thought Ryan Blaney was easily the best car in practice. FWIW, Blaney has had several great practice sessions in recent weeks and is still searching for that first win. However, the #12 car led the charts with the fastest 5, 10, 15, and 20 lap consecutive averages
Behind Blaney, I thought Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Tyler Reddick were also really strong on the raw times feed. Logano and Kevin Harvick were definitely right there with the rest of the leaders as well. Perhaps slightly more surprising was the fact that Ty Gibbs and Austin Cindric were really solid on the speed charts. Gibbs won Saturday’s Xfinity Series Championship to capture his 1st win at Phoenix and while he has not been as impressive on the Cup Side; he has shown more speed this weekend. Meanwhile, Cindric is a guy that is on my betting radar because he was really good at Phoenix throughout his Xfinity Series career and I believe his ceiling far exceeds most people’s expectations.
Note: Drivers that were not trending in a positive direction in practice included all of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars, Bubba Wallace, and defending race winner Chase Briscoe.
Like all championship races this weekend, I’m not enticed by the odds surrounding the championship contenders. Instead, I would much rather take a chance on a non-championship contender that has near the same probability of winning with much better betting odds. The drivers that are within those parameters include the likes of Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson. I mentioned Blaney’s speed in practice but Larson deserves attention as well as a driver with an excellent track record at Phoenix and who is still in the hunt for the owner’s championship. Meanwhile, I would say the odds around guys like Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin are also very enticing as well.
Without question, I believe the best betting opportunities will be in the realm of H2H match-ups on Sunday which has been the case for the majority of the season. In terms of sharp H2H betting targets, I believe that Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric, and Erik Jones have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest and those drivers appear to be better than most of the drivers paired against them in match-ups. Briscoe may be the more risky option among that group but he is still playable if you can find the right match-ups. I would also not completely overlook guys like Ty Gibbs and Cole Custer who are currently listed at really deep odds. However, I like Gibbs and Custer more as prop bet options with better ROI rather than traditional H2H formats.
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