2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500k Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday March 13th, 2022. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: FOX

NASCAR’s championship venue resides in the Valley of the Sun at Phoenix Raceway. While there will not be any championship implications on the line this weekend, NASCAR’s best will get their first taste of short-track action with the Next Gen Car with the running of the Ruoff Mortgage 500k on Sunday. In previous years, NASCAR has run two distinct rules packages at the shorter and larger venues. However, the 2022 rules package with the Next Gen Car will feature the same specifications that were run in each of the last two races in Fontana and Las Vegas. Therefore, bettors should be able to expand on the recent performance trends and perhaps identify baseline expectations for Sunday’s Ruoff Mortgage 500k.

In last week’s race at Las Vegas, I backed the Chevrolet teams with confidence mainly because I felt those cars had a slight edge in performance. While we got a little lucky with Alex Bowman’s late race restart heroics, the competitiveness shown at Las Vegas last week screamed to the “parity” narrative that fans also witnessed at Auto Club Speedway. We saw several drivers including Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, and Ross Chastain spend numerous laps at the front of the field. Along with those names, the top 10 was loaded with an array of talents which proved once again that the Next Gen Car has provided a more level playing field in the equipment department.

Since it appears the equipment and performance indicators from the majority of race teams are close in proximity, handicappers and bettors should find solace in this weekend’s return to Phoenix. The entire Cup Series has been extremely competitive this season with the wholesale design of the Next Gen Car. Since all teams are on a relatively even playing field, I believe Sunday’s Ruoff Mortgage 500k will likely be a tale of identifying the drivers that will benefit from the new “parity.”. Basically the performance gap in equipment has narrowed which means the drivers that can make the most time on the stopwatch are going to shine, especially at the shorter venues. As a result, we can rely on some historical trends which will point us in the direction of drivers that should benefit from diminishing equipment advantages.

Loop Data

I have compiled loop data metrics for the last 5 races at Phoenix Raceway which should highlight some of the drivers that historically excel in the Valley of the Sun. The one important factor to consider when observing the loop data below is that the historical trends over the last 5 races dealt with varying levels of competitiveness among race teams from an equipment perspective. For NASCAR’s 2022 Next Gen Car which provides a more level playing field, we should really give credit to the drivers that have a solid Phoenix resume with less dominant historical equipment. By doing so, this should give us an idea of the drivers that will take another step forward now that all teams’ performance is in closer proximity.

As you will see below, there are not many surprises at the top of the loop data rankings over the last 5 races. Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Larson all rank inside the top 5. All of those drivers have won championships over the last few years. Alongside those 3 heavyweights, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin have also produced solid average ratings over the last 5 races. Harvick is the all-time wins leader at Phoenix win 9 career victories and Hamlin is a two-time winner as well with the 2nd best driver average behind Harvick. Needless to say, none of the names at the top of our loop data list is surprising.

The data that really starts to grab my attention surrounds the likes of Aric Almirola and Christopher Bell. Phoenix has been one of Almirola’s best tracks with top 15 finishes in 8 of the last 9 races. In fact, Phoenix is one of Almirola’s best tracks statistically outside of the superspeedway venues. For whatever reason, the Fords were better on the shorter layouts last season and while that may not be relative to this Sunday’s race; the data and the potential higher ceiling bodes well for Almirola. Likewise, Christopher Bell is one of those drivers with a smaller sample size. However, Bell has still recorded two 9th place finishes in both Phoenix races last season. After showing really strong speed at Las Vegas, Bell has the talent and team that should put another quality performance together. As a result, both Bell and Almirola are among the drivers on my radar prior to Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Joey Logano	118.5	7.2	6.2	5.2	5.2	51	138	421	1564
Chase Elliott	115.6	3.2	10.4	11.4	9.0	84	182	340	1417
Denny Hamlin	114.1	3.8	10.6	6.2	7.6	21	219	175	1564
Kyle Larson	108.5	3.0	9.8	4.0	7.5	57	74	110	1252
Kevin Harvick	107.8	9.4	7.8	5.6	6.8	39	109	68	1564
Martin Truex Jr	106.4	9.2	6.4	10.2	8.0	25	160	147	1530
Brad Keselowski	106.2	8.2	4.4	7.4	7.2	27	100	120	1564
Kyle Busch	103.1	7.8	14.4	9.6	9.8	21	63	69	1563
Ryan Blaney	97.4	6.4	10.6	12.0	10.4	-10	48	69	1313
William Byron	87.0	14.6	12.6	12.2	12.2	52	12	0	1563
Aric Almirola	85.6	15.4	12.4	12.0	12.8	58	16	7	1561
Kurt Busch	84.6	7.8	11.8	12.0	12.4	-21	3	9	1564
Christopher Bell	78.1	11.0	14.0	14.8	15.0	-4	19	0	1251
Erik Jones	73.0	15.0	17.8	19.8	15.6	-32	7	0	1560
Alex Bowman	72.2	12.6	17.0	16.8	16.8	-6	8	0	1561
Cole Custer	71.6	15.5	17.0	20.3	17.0	-12	26	0	1246
Tyler Reddick	69.1	23.3	10.3	25.0	17.0	-11	13	4	1197
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	62.8	19.0	21.0	23.2	21.4	0	4	2	1389
Ross Chastain	60.4	23.5	20.3	21.0	21.0	-6	0	0	1247
Chase Briscoe	59.5	24.0	24.0	28.5	22.0	-8	1	0	465
Austin Dillon	59.2	22.4	24.4	22.0	23.0	-27	18	0	1373
Chris Buescher	58.0	22.8	22.4	19.2	23.0	-39	1	1	1561
Ty Dillon	57.5	25.3	23.0	18.7	23.3	13	1	0	938
Daniel Suarez	55.3	24.0	20.6	21.8	23.6	-44	13	0	1558
Bubba Wallace	54.4	24.6	29.2	22.8	25.8	-28	7	4	1252
Michael McDowell	52.1	23.2	23.8	23.2	24.8	-24	3	0	1557
Justin Haley	47.9	29.0	27.5	25.0	27.5	1	0	0	622
Corey LaJoie	44.5	28.8	25.4	31.8	29.2	-55	9	12	1417
B.J. McLeod	42.6	31.0	29.5	28.5	29.0	-45	0	0	618
Cody Ware	37.8	32.0	32.5	32.0	32.5	-2	0	0	407
Garrett Smithley	30.6	36.4	34.6	33.6	34.6	-8	1	0	1347
Josh Bilicki	30.6	37.0	34.7	33.3	34.7	-4	0	0	857

Practice Observations

Cup Series’ teams and drivers participated in a brief practice session earlier this afternoon followed by qualifying that resulted in Ryan Blaney earning the Busch Pole Award with a lap of 132.709mph. From practice earlier, the one thing I noticed more than the lap speeds is the simple fact that the lap times are not falling off. Phoenix Raceway has never produced a lot of tire wear but the majority of practice times this afternoon were within 1-2 tenths out of those who put together 15-20 lap runs. Therefore, we must remember that track position will be important and the battle on pit road will be just as important for creating winning opportunities.

In practice, I thought Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney were in a different league compared to the rest of the competition. Both Larson and Blaney were nearly two tenths better than everyone on the raw lap data field and while they had some anomaly laps to mess with the overall averages; both drivers looked really strong. Larson won the last race at Phoenix in the championship finale last fall meanwhile Blaney is one of those drivers that has run very well at Phoenix despite not always getting the finishes to show for it. Either way you dice the historical narrative, both Larson and Blaney have routinely run at the front at Phoenix and clearly appeared to be the top two cars in practice.

A few other drivers that I thought looked really well in terms of raw times included William Byron, Austin Cindric, and Tyler Reddick among your less popular names. It is worth noting that Kevin Harvick was not too far off in Saturday’s practice. Harvick has dominated Phoenix like no other driver in NASCAR history with 9 victories. So while he may not have been the best on the stopwatch, he still poses a threat ahead of Sunday’s green flag. A few names that were on the other end of the spectrum that either struggled and/or lacked speed included guys like Martin Truex Jr and Brad Keselowski. Both drivers have been hot in recent weeks in the speed department but appeared to be off in practices earlier. I’m not exactly sure if that means bettors should confidently fade Truex or Keselowski because both drivers have plenty of experience at Phoenix Raceway however it is worth noting nevertheless.

Betting Targets and Fades

My favorite sharp target going into the weekend has not changed and that revolves around the rookie in Austin Cindric. After a few mediocre performances following the win in the Daytona 500, this is the week to jump back on board the #2 team. Cindric has performed extremely well at Phoenix throughout his Xfinity Series career against some of the best names in the sport. Cindric even secured an Xfinity Series’ Championship with his victory in the 2021 finale. I personally believe Cindric does not get the credit he deserves from becoming a well-rounded driver following the road course ringer narrative that he carried early on. Phoenix is one of those tracks that you would not initially think of a rookie like Cindric but I think it provides bettors great opportunities to get good value on the #2 machine for the Ruoff Mortgage 500.

In terms of drivers for the outright victory, Kyle Larson’s chances go without saying. Personally, I am looking for better value in the likes of Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin. Both drivers have strong Phoenix backgrounds and have been among the fastest cars in the field over the last 2 weeks. If I stay true to my recent performance at Phoenix narrative, Blaney and Hamlin’s numbers stand out as reliable options as well. I just think both drivers have the perfect form to strike this weekend and stop Hendrick Motorsports’ attempt at a 3rd straight victory.

While Blaney and Hamlin are decent options among the top guys, Cindric and William Byron are good intermediate valued pivots that could also strike. Similar to Ryan Blaney in the history department, Byron is another name that has always run well at Phoenix but not always produced the finishes to show the performance results. Unfortunately, Byron is listed in match-ups against many of the top favorites which yields minimal value in the H2H match-up department. Instead, we should keep Byron on the radar for outright victory or top 3 prop bets that have better value.

*Notable mention for drivers also trending up for Sunday in the realm of H2H match-ups and/or fantasy purposes: Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, and Bubba Wallace

Draftkings Ruoff Mortgage 500 Optimal Lineup

2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Ryan Blaney +800 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +900 (1 unit)
Kevin Harvick +2000 (.5 unit)
Austin Cindric +3000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups

Austin Cindric -170 over Erik Jones (2 units)
Ross Chastain -115 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Christopher Bell +100 over Alex Bowman (2 units)

Prop Bets

*All props courtesy of Bovada

Bubba Wallace -135 finishes on the lead lap (2 units)
Kevin Harvick -160 finishes Top 10 (2 units) *Harvick has finished inside the top 10 in the last 17 races which provides value to this line
Austin Cindric +190 wins Group D Winner (Briscoe, Chastain, Ku. Busch) (2 units)