2022 ROXOR 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday May 7th, 2022. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series has been highly entertaining throughout the 2022 season and there is a high probability that trend continues on Saturday with the running of the ROXOR 200 at Darlington Raceway. Not only will we get the chance to watch the Xfinity Series tackle NASCAR’s most grueling track but there will also be a star-studded lineup featured on Saturday garnering appearances from the likes of Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, John Hunter Nemechek, and Ryan Truex whom will join the rest of the Xfinity Series regulars for 200 miles of racing with the Lady in Black.

While the entry list appears to be exciting, I’m not sure if that same excitement will be provided to bettors. I like to keep things transparent right off the start. With that being said, I’m struggling to believe Saturday’s ROXOR 200 will be a great betting opportunity and therefore I may scale back the bets by a decent amount for Saturday’s card. The reason I don’t believe this will be a good betting event is simply based on a preliminary review of current odds. We have 5 different drivers that are listed at less than 8-1 odds including Chase Elliott who is an overwhelming 3 to 1 favorite. Needless to say, there is minimal value on the guys that have the best chance to win this race. Furthermore, H2H match-ups appear less than appetizing this week as well.

I’m not trying to sound pessimistic because I will enjoy the spectator aspect of Darlington either way. However, I just don’t want to hype this up as a great betting event when I just don’t see much value in current betting odds. I’m hoping that we will get some better line movement over the weekend especially after practice/qualifying sessions on Friday. For now, I will just advise bettors to be very conservative with your overall risk exposure for Saturday’s ROXOR 200 if we don’t find the value that we desire. With that being said, let’s dive into the most notable observations and factors that I am contemplating when attempting to handicap the Xfinity Series’ return to Darlington.

Handicapping Notes

If you missed my Truck Series preview, I preached to the fact that the top drivers always emerge at the front at Darlington regardless of equipment. In referring to “top” drivers, I am basing that moniker on those individuals that just have that pure driving talent advantage behind the wheel compared to the competition. As a rule of thumb when handicapping Darlington, never bet against the more talented driver in H2H formats regardless of practice observations, team performance expectations, or any other outliers. Along with that rule of thumb, I have created several bullet points that highlights important notes for Saturday’s ROXOR 200

Chase Elliott’s first Xfinity Series win came at Darlington in 2014 against a talented Xfinity field that included Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, and Joey Logano. That win in 2014 remains Elliott’s only Darlington win of his career in any series. Josh Berry finished 2nd at Darlington in the September race last season in his first appearance with the Lady in Black for JR Motorsports

• Brandon Jones, Justin Allgaier, and Noah Gragson are the other former winners in the field with Elliott. All drivers scored their victory over the last 3 races at Darlington.
• In 4 career Xfinity Series starts (2017-2021) at Darlington, Tyler Reddick has posted finishes of 16th, 3rd, 2nd, and 7th.
• Ryan Sieg has finished in the top 10 in 3 of his last 4 starts at Darlington
• Justin Allgaier has finished in the top 10 in 6 of the last 7 races at Darlington
• Daniel Hemric has finished outside the top 10 in 4 of his 6 career starts at Darlington

Practice and Qualifying Notes

It was kind of a weird afternoon earlier on Friday in terms of practice. Xfinity Series’ teams were able to practice but in the qualifying trials which took place immediately afterwards; Mother Nature halted qualifying after several cars had already taken time. Since the full field did not complete a time, the lineup for tomorrow’s ROXOR 200 will be set according to the rule book. Most interestingly, the result of qualifying getting canceled was a direct blow to the overall favorite in Chase Elliott. Because the #88 team has only participated once this season, they did not have the minimal points to clinch a starting spot therefore Elliott will not be racing on Saturday.

Hopefully Elliott’s departure opens up some opportunities but before we get into our betting targets. Let’s make some quick notes of what we learned during the brief 30 minute practice session. For starters, John Hunter Nemechek was really quick in the #26 car for Sam Hunt Racing. I mentioned last week that Sam Hunt Racing has shown improvement this year and had quality drivers in their cars. However, I did not necessarily believe Nemechek would contend for a victory in the #26 but he was by far the fastest car in practice which begs betting consideration.

A few other drivers that looked pretty solid on the speed charts included the likes of Brandon Jones and Josh Berry. I mentioned earlier that Jones is a former winner and that Berry finished 2nd in his only Darlington start in decent equipment. Both drivers were fast off the hauler on Friday and looks like they could be factors. Strictly from a practice standpoint, I thought Ty Gibbs and Noah Gragson were within striking range. Gibbs looked really solid on the long-run and I wonder if he was just taking it easy at the beginning of his run. Outside of the top threats, JJ Yeley and Stefan Parsons were some bottom-tier names that were further up the speed charts than I expected. I highly doubt we would find any match-ups with either driver but I mention both for fantasy racing purposes.

Betting Targets

After Elliott failed to make the race, I originally thought betting odds may get more opportunistic. Instead, the most recent updated odds show 6 different drivers at less than 10-1 odds at some sportsbooks. Even John Hunter Nemechek who I believe is a real dark horse, is listed at just 12-1 odds which is largely overvalued for the #26 team. Therefore, I am not backing away from my previous opinion that this will not be an ideal betting race and that it deserves extreme caution in terms of value/ROI. With that being said, let’s still discuss the drivers worth consideration.

I feel like Josh Berry deserves a lot of sharp betting attention. Berry finished in the runner-up spot last year at Darlington and just seems to have the consistency that thrives on the long-runs. Granted long-runs are not guaranteed at a place like Darlington, however Berry is still worthy of the immediate attention. Behind Berry, I’m not nearly as confident in betting choices in futures formats or in other words around drivers to flat out win the race. I do believe John Hunter Nemechek and Noah Gragson are the drivers to target in H2H formats. Nemechek is starting to get some extra attention but it still in the favorites to intermediate betting range. Meanwhile, Gragson is the guy that I believe will beat most of the favorites that are aligned to him in H2H formats.

*Other H2H options that yield betting upside if you can find them in match-ups include Ryan Sieg and JJ Yeley

Draftkings ROXOR 200 Optimal Lineup

2022 ROXOR 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Josh Berry +570 (1 unit)
John Hunter Nemechek +1200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

John Hunter Nemechek -105 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)
Josh Berry -110 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Ryan Sieg -125 over Brett Moffitt (2 units)