2022 Quaker State 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday July 10th, 2022. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Road America
TV: USA Network

For the 2nd time this season, NASCAR’s Cup Series will go racing on the newly configured Atlanta Motor Speedway when the green flag waves on Sunday for the Quaker State 400. Formerly known as one of the cookie-cutter 1.5 mile venues with abrasive tire wear, the newly reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway produced superspeedway style racing back in March in the first race since the reconfiguration that produced a fresh layer of asphalt (grip) and increased banking in the turns. As a result, this Sunday’s return to Atlanta will be another superspeedway style betting event that will be highly volatile and hopefully rewarding.

Unlike in recent weeks, the Cup Series will not participate in practices this weekend. However, teams will have an opportunity to qualify on Saturday to set the official starting grid. As a result, this week’s handicapping will mostly be centered around performance from the March race with some similar considerations for the other two superspeedway events at Daytona and Talladega. Like most superspeedway events, we have much better value in terms of betting odds and perhaps that will give us a chance to take a few more selections this week while still maintaining the ROI thresholds that we desire.

Before we get too deep into the analytics discussion, I do want to make a couple of clear observations. While the race packages at Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta are the same, the racing is not quite identical at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Yes, drivers will be full-throttle nearly every lap and drafting will be important. However, Atlanta’s relatively narrower surface did not produce the huge runs that we typically see at Daytona and Talladega. As a result, track position will be extremely important and having some help in the form of teammates/friends at the end could also be very important when moves need to be made. The main reason that I mention these factors is because while Atlanta is now considered a superspeedway style event, I don’t believe it produced the same extreme longshots or dark horses that we see at places like Talladega. Therefore, our core selections should be centered around the top drivers/teams that have consistently performed throughout the season.

Atlanta Notes

If you look back at the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 in March, William Byron pulled out his lone victory of the season. While Byron was the most consistent frontrunner throughout the afternoon, guys like Ross Chastain, Kyle Busch, Daniel Suarez, Chase Elliott, and Ryan Blaney were also consistently at the front of the field. In fact, Ross Chastain blew a tire while leading the race and even after hitting the wall the driver of the #1 car was able to rebound for a runner-up finish. Kyle Busch’s day was ruined when he got into Austin Dillon but the #18 was extremely fast up until that point.

When the dust settled back in March, I was most notably surprised with the TrackHouse Racing cars of Chastain and Suarez who both captured top 4 finishes. Chastain overcame serious adversity to get a runner-up position and Suarez was consistently at the front of the field which speaks volumes to the power from the ECR engines. Erik Jones also had a lot of time at the front of the field and it’s worth noting that Richard Petty Motorsports also utilizes the same ECR engines. While Richard Childress Racing drivers Tyler Reddick and Austin Dillon did not have the same success mainly because of incidents, they still had considerable speed. Therefore, I think bettors should keep the ECR power teams close on their betting radar this week.

Loop Data

It’s gotten to that point in the season where I really like to look at analytics from prior “like” events. Obviously, loop data stats are not always the sole indicator for betting selections but they definitely should be considered into the overall handicapping equation. As a result, I have compiled loop data averages from the 3 superspeedway events this season at Daytona, Atlanta, and Talladega. I was eager to see the results with the Next Gen Car and needless to say these averages did lend a few surprises.

As you will see below, Ryan Blaney is the only driver with a triple digit average rating. However, there is a heavy concentration of drivers with the 90s range which includes William Byron, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr, Bubba Wallace, and Erik Jones. In my opinion, I think Wallace and Jones have proved on multiple occasions that they have a knack for superspeedway racing and perhaps they should be considered for plus-style bets again this week. I have never considered Martin Truex an elite superspeedway talent; however he has led laps and gotten reasonably solid finishes in each superspeedway event. Meanwhile, I feel like Chase Elliott and William Byron could once again be strong threats at the win. I have been labeling Byron one of the most underrated superspeedway drivers since he came into the sport and he always has 2 wins in his young career at the style of racing. Meanwhile, Elliott and the 9 team appear to be peaking at the right time and you know the hometown driver wants a win at Atlanta in a bad way.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Ryan Blaney	100.2	10.3	3.7	10.7	9.3	-7	17	74	714
William Byron	95.2	14.3	13.0	18.0	13.3	39	17	150	575
Chase Elliott	94.5	15.0	11.7	7.7	11.0	35	14	29	714
Martin Truex Jr	94.2	14.0	12.7	8.7	11.0	9	14	16	714
Bubba Wallace	93.0	14.7	14.0	10.7	10.7	-2	23	30	714
Erik Jones	91.2	17.3	8.0	16.3	9.7	-9	16	28	704
Kyle Busch	87.0	8.7	22.3	14.0	16.3	20	19	52	560
Kyle Larson	84.6	9.0	13.0	22.0	13.0	56	13	34	590
Brad Keselowski	82.9	14.0	11.7	14.7	14.7	-21	18	67	713
Joey Logano	82.1	12.0	24.3	20.7	17.7	19	15	14	612
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	80.5	24.0	16.3	29.7	18.0	80	17	38	489
Kurt Busch	80.5	10.7	17.7	12.7	14.7	60	26	5	712
Austin Cindric	80.2	13.0	13.3	18.0	16.0	-42	9	21	589
Alex Bowman	79.9	13.3	23.7	14.3	19.3	49	25	0	710
Christopher Bell	79.0	13.3	18.0	26.3	16.0	35	10	23	664
Ross Chastain	77.0	15.0	27.0	14.3	21.0	17	20	43	575
Daniel Suarez	76.3	12.7	22.7	17.7	17.7	-49	16	41	616
Kevin Harvick	73.5	18.0	5.3	20.3	14.3	-59	11	11	704
Aric Almirola	72.3	23.7	11.3	13.3	16.0	-5	16	6	714
Chris Buescher	69.3	16.0	17.3	20.3	19.0	-44	7	0	581
Corey LaJoie	69.2	30.0	22.7	11.0	22.0	71	21	1	714
Michael McDowell	69.0	18.7	22.0	13.0	21.0	-53	18	0	710
Denny Hamlin	66.5	17.3	21.0	28.0	21.0	28	8	10	463
Justin Haley	64.9	19.3	18.3	15.3	20.7	-24	18	1	711
Chase Briscoe	62.9	9.0	19.7	18.3	22.0	9	29	5	582
Austin Dillon	60.8	22.3	24.0	20.7	22.7	27	8	1	486
Tyler Reddick	55.9	10.0	29.0	34.0	26.0	-21	4	5	427
Ty Dillon	53.9	21.3	26.0	26.7	24.3	-30	5	0	391
Cole Custer	52.6	26.7	21.7	27.7	25.7	-46	10	1	447
Todd Gilliland	50.9	28.7	22.7	29.0	22.3	-10	12	0	608
David Ragan	50.2	35.0	22.0	16.7	25.3	-79	22	0	712
Harrison Burton	46.2	21.3	32.7	32.7	27.3	8	6	3	472
Noah Gragson	43.7	33.3	24.0	29.3	26.3	53	13	0	401
Cody Ware	43.2	32.7	25.7	23.7	27.3	-66	11	0	605
B.J. McLeod	40.5	36.0	26.3	24.0	28.3	4	10	4	693
Greg Biffle	35.9	33.3	30.7	30.3	31.3	-31	12	0	540

Betting Targets and Strategy

My prop bets have not produced many great moments this year compared to prior seasons. However, there have been some really valuable props in recent weeks and you don’t need to hit many props to get a serious return. For a superspeedway style event, prop bets may be a great alternative to prevent overextending betting lineups. Since I’m not convinced we will see a ridiculous underdog contend for the victory this week, we might not get the extreme betting value that we would like for this type of event. Since H2H bets are also usually similar to a toss-up for this style of racing, I think a few props will be a favorable approach this weekend as opposed to H2H match-ups. However if I see a few really bad H2H match-ups, I still may pull the trigger but that will be based on odds.

With that being said, Ross Chastain has become one of my weekly favorites because he has not reached that “overwhelming” favorite status despite being the most consistent frontrunner in the Cup Series this season. On the heels of his performance back in March which involved overcoming a blown tire while leading the race to score a 2nd place finish, I like Chastain again this week at double digit betting odds. I would probably list William Byron and Chase Elliott as deserving favorites as well and I have a gut feeling that Elliott will be in contention in the closing laps.

Of course with superspeedway style racing, we are seeking betting value as a priority for betting selections. The drivers that I believe have excellent value based on current odds, loop data metrics above, and their performance at Atlanta back in March include the likes of Daniel Suarez, Chase Briscoe, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. I mentioned earlier that Suarez captured a top 5 finish and spoke to the strengths of TrackHouse Racing this season. For Briscoe and Stenhouse, both drivers were really strong at Atlanta back in March but did not get the finishes to reflect their performances. In fact, Stenhouse led 22 laps and I really like the idea that he could pull off an upset because he is so skillful at protecting the lead in the front of superspeedway races. Therefore, I could really get behind a few of these dark horses in all betting formats.

Draftkings Quaker State 400 Optimal Lineup

2022 Quaker State 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Elliott +1000 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +1200 (.75 unit)
Joey Logano +1400 (.5 unit)
Daniel Suarez +2000 (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +3000 (.5 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +5000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ryan Blaney +100 over Kyle Larson (2 units)
Cole Custer +1400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +185 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +185 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)