2022 Pit Boss 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 26th, 2022. 4:30PM (EST)
Where: Circuit of the Americas
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take center stage on Saturday with the running of the Pit Boss 250 at Circuit of the Americas. Last week, Ty Gibbs became the first two-time winner, in any of NASCAR’s touring series, on the season. Gibbs was already expected to be one of the top threats in the Xfinity Series prior to the season based on his success in limited starts a year ago. Following early wins at Las Vegas and Atlanta, Gibbs has emerged as the guy to beat among the Xfinity Series regulars. However, Circuit of the Americas will provide a vastly different form of racing on Saturday as Xfinity Series drivers get their first taste of road course racing of the season.

Earlier today Gibbs continued to impress when he posted the fastest lap in qualifying with a speed of 91.258mph. It was just the 2nd pole of Gibbs’ young career and based on the current momentum of the young phenom; he will once again be a heavily favored driver going into Saturday’s event. Fortunately, bettors will have advantageous opportunities in the Pit Boss 250 even if Gibbs’ finds a way to capture another victory. The reason for that statement is that road courses are traditionally very favorable towards handicappers. Instead of mass parity like we saw last week at Atlanta, the driver makes the most of lap times at the road courses. As a result, we can more accurately predict how drivers will fare and parlay that confidence into exploiting H2H match-ups.

Betting Strategy

I am going to keep this preview rather brief and straightforward. With that being said, I believe that H2H match-ups provide the most value this weekend across all series. Obviously we will take some shots at futures (win) bets in hopes that some value plays can take advantage of the opportunity to showcase their road course skills. However, I would still point out that the H2H match-ups hold the sharpest value this weekend so bettors could upgrade their overall risks around H2H bets for the Pit Boss 250.

Practice Observations

To the surprise of many, Preston Pardus captured the fastest lap in Friday’s practice session. While die-hard fans may recognize Pardus as a strong road course talent, it was still rather surprising to see Pardus top the charts with a lap of 89.703mph. In fact, there were several interesting names at the top of the charts on Friday. Cole Custer and Ross Chastain were among drivers that were inside the top 15 in Friday’s practice and then both drivers captured top 5 qualifying positions later in the day. In terms of pure practice speeds, I thought Noah Gragson and AJ Allmendinger displayed the most consistent top speeds among the competition. Meanwhile, drivers like Sheldon Creed and Alex Labbe were also trending in the right direction.

On the other side of the fence, there were other interesting names that did not impress in Friday’s practice. Bubba Wallace is one of the drivers that struggled in practice. Wallace is getting an opportunity in the prestigious #18 car for Joe Gibbs Racing but it appears to be for learning opportunities. Wallace has never been a good road course driver and he was down the charts throughout Friday’s session. Among other drivers, I would label the likes of Daniel Hemric, Josh Berry, and Ryan Sieg as the most disappointing performers based on pre-existing expectations.

Pit Boss 250 Betting Targets

In terms of betting targets, I am anxiously targeting guys like Sheldon Creed and Noah Gragson in all formats. I mentioned earlier how Gibbs has become a big weekly favorite and I should mention that AJ Allmendinger is likely considered the other “big” favorite in the field due to his illustrious road course resume. However, I am taking Creed and Gragson as pivots against both outright favorites in all formats. I believe Creed and Gragson are both dark horses in Saturday’s Pit Boss 250 which means they have acute value in H2H match-ups as well.

If I had to pick any other drivers that could stay around the front of the field on Saturday, I would put Cole Custer’s name in the hat. Custer won his only start of the season, with Bobby Dotter and the #07 team, back in California. Custer has the talent and has shown the speed with the #07 team to keep into consideration. Unfortunately, Custer does not appear to have a ton of “value” at the moment but should be kept in the conversation for those that may find better betting options. In terms of lower tier options in H2H formats, Preston Pardus and Alex Labbe are definitely guys that have been trending in the right direction throughout the weekend.

Pit Boss 250 Betting Fades

I have been careful from listing “fades” in some of my previews this year. The main reason is because all 3 series have shown “tremendous” parity. With that being said, I do believe that we have legitimate “fade” options that can be avoided in all formats. Based on current odds, I believe the likes of Daniel Hemric, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, and Ryan Sieg are the drivers that are lending sharp value in the opposite direction. All of those drivers have betting odds and/or match-up pairings that are being given too much optimism compared to my projections.

Draftkings Pit Boss 250 Optimal Lineup

2022 Pit Boss 250 Race Picks

*Final*

AJ Allmendinger +300 (1.5 units)
Cole Custer +1000 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1200 (.75 unit)
Noah Gragson +1200 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Cole Custer -115 over Daniel Hemric (2 units)
Sheldon Creed +100 over Ross Chastain (2 units)
Noah Gragson -160 over Bubba Wallace (2 units)