2022 Pinty’s Truck Race on Dirt Race Picks
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday April 16th, 2022. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway Dirt
TV: FS1
The Camping World Truck Series will return to dirt action this Saturday with the running of the Pinty’s Truck Race on Dirt at Bristol Motor Speedway. Unlike NASCAR’s Cup Series which debuted on the dirt for the first time at Bristol last year, the Truck Series has routinely participated in at least one dirt event each year since 2013 at Eldora. In fact, the Truck Series will compete at multiple dirt tracks for the 2nd straight season if you account for the series’ return to Knoxville Raceway slated for June. Therefore, we will not only be looking for betting opportunities for this weekend’s return to Bristol but will also be making observations for what to expect at Knoxville in June.
In last year’s inaugural dirt race at Bristol, Martin Truex spoiled the show. The former Cup Series champion dominated by leading 105 of 150 laps en route to victory for Kyle Busch Motorsports. Truex was not exactly known as a “dirt” guy but was among the most talented drivers in the field with the best equipment; a combination that produced a very dominant performance. For Saturday’s Pinty’s Truck Race on Dirt, there are several Cup Series drivers that will be suiting up including the likes of Austin Dillon, Harrison Burton, Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano. Obviously, Logano and Elliott’s name probably stand out as the best raw talents in Saturday’s field but I would also point out that Dillon won the inaugural dirt race at Eldora Speedway back in 2013. Needless to say, bettors will have plenty of things to think about with so many talented drivers joining Saturday’s lineup.
From a competition standpoint, Logano and Elliott are in capable equipment this week which makes both drivers heavy favorites. Logano will jump behind the #54 truck for DGR and Harrison Burton will be in the #17 with DGR as well. Meanwhile, Elliott will pilot the #7 for Spire Motorsports. While Spire Motorsports does not have the greatest reputation historically, they have performed very well this season with Cup Series drivers and scored a victory with William Byron last week at Martinsville Speedway. As a result, Elliott and Logano got the nod of confidence as the heavy favorites but I think there are several drivers that are being disrespected, from an odds standpoint, that also deserve consideration this week.
Betting Targets
Though I am a Chase Elliott fan, I believe Logano’s skill set is probably better for the dirt which was proven in last year’s inaugural Cup Series race on dirt. However, neither Logano nor Elliott have the betting value that I am looking for ahead of Friday’s practices. Still if I had to choose one of the overall favorites, I would give the nod to Logano. Behind the favorites, I believe Harrison Burton is being completely disrespected at 50-1 odds. Burton has truck racing experience on dirt and is in decent equipment. Therefore, the 50-1 price tag is simply too good to pass up in terms of win odds.
Other drivers that deserve some upfront consideration include the likes of Chandler Smith, Ben Rhodes, and Carson Hocevar. Smith finished 2nd at Knoxville last July and has been the most improved driver in the series this season. Meanwhile, Ben Rhodes has always run well in the dirt races and was among the fastest trucks behind Truex at Bristol last spring. My only problem with Rhodes is that, a lot like the dirt racing talent of Stewart Friesen, he is not getting hardly any betting value with current odds. As a result, I wanted to provide Carson Hocevar’s name as one of those drivers with sharp betting value. With all the deep talent in the field, Hocevar’s chances at a victory are pretty slim but I expect he will run very well. Hocevar is one of the more talented drivers in the Truck Series that has largely flown under the radar. After a couple of really strong dirt performances last year, this is an opportunity to smash Hocevar in the H2H department against other mediocre talents with much lower ceilings.
For now, I am just locking-in a few small risk/high reward type of plays like Harrison Burton at 50-1 odds and perhaps a few H2H bets that I believe will lose value after tonight’s practices. All betting targets up to this point have been targeted prior to Friday’s practices. I will update the practice observations tab headline below following tonight’s practice sessions and perhaps that will add some targets to our radar. However, I would advise bettors that current betting odds will likely change significantly after practices this evening so it will be advisable to lock-in those bets that could lose some of their prestige.
Practice Observations
Truck Series’ teams and drivers were given two practice sessions on Friday in preparation for Saturday’s Pinty’s Truck Race on Dirt. Track conditions were completely different between the first session which was an untouched surface compared to the 2nd practice session which followed the opening Cup Series practice. Since Saturday will feature heat races from both the Trucks and Cup Series before the green flag, I am given the 2nd practice session the most observable credit towards race conditions.
In Friday’s 2nd practice session, Joey Logano was really the class of the field from the opening lap to the end. Chase Elliott made some solid ground but I still give Logano the clear edge just as I did prior to practices. With the favorites, Ben Rhodes and Chandler Smith were among the names that had speed worthy of contending at the front of the field. Personally, I thought Rhodes’ speed was as good as anyone on Friday and perhaps he deserves some extra consideration in all formats.
The young talent of Buddy Kofoid displayed some speed in his first Truck Series’ laps with Kyle Busch Motorsports. Kofoid is a young and decorated dirt series talent that deserves respect. While I typically stay away from first-time drivers, Kofoid may have some H2H value if paired against lower tier talent.
Meanwhile drivers that were not trending in a positive direction included the likes of Stewart Friesen and Zane Smith. Smith did not exactly impress last year on the dirt but Friesen is among the favorites. After setting the fastest lap in the opening session, Friesen struggled significantly in the latter session and was very frustrated that the truck would not turn. I mentioned earlier that Friesen is often overvalued at the dirt venues and I think that may be the case again for Saturday.
2022 Pinty’s Truck Race on Dirt Race Picks
*Final*
Joey Logano +550 (1 unit)
Ben Rhodes +800 (.75 unit)
Chandler Smith +1000 (.75 unit)
Harrison Burton +5000 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-ups and Props
Harrison Burton -115 over Hailie Deegan (3 units)
Carson Hocevar +100 over Matt Crafton (3 units)
Chase Elliott -130 over Stewart Friesen (2 units)
