2022 Pennzoil 150 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 30th, 2022. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix
TV: NBC

Last night, NASCAR kicked off an action packed weekend of racing with an exciting double header at IRP. In Friday night’s main event, Grant Enfinger secured his first victory of the year in the opening race of the Camping World Truck Series playoffs. On Saturday, the focus will shift less than 10 miles southeast of IRP when the Xfinity Series takes aim at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course for the running of the Pennzoil 150. Unlike the Truck Series, both Xfinity and Cup Series teams still have a few races before the playoffs begin. However, the return to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix could provide playoff clinching opportunities for several drivers across both touring series.

Before we begin to get into observations from Friday’s on-track activities and betting predictions, let’s first discuss the entry list for Saturday’s Pennzoil 150 because it may be among the most intriguing Xfinity Series’ fields of the entire season. Several Cup Series drivers will be competing on Saturday in an obvious attempt to fine tune their skills on this relatively new layout. After all, the Cup Series has only competed once on the 2.439 mile Grand Prix circuit which came last year with AJ Allmendinger dramatic victory. With the limited experience and parity provided by the Next Gen Car in the Cup Series, several Cup Series drivers are electing to compete in Saturday’s event to increase the opportunity to contend on Sunday.

The interesting component to all of the Cup Series’ talent in Saturday’s Pennzoil 150 is the fact that most drivers are in mediocre to lower-tier equipment. Usually when we see Cup Series drivers step down into Xfinity Series competition, they are in top tier equipment which greatly increases their chances to race for a victory. Out of all the Cup Series drivers that are competing on Saturday which includes Ty Dillon, Austin Dillon, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace, and Ross Chastain, I would argue that only Wallace and Bowman are in what I would consider top tier equipment with JR Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing. Of course, that does not mean that others will not be able to contend but nevertheless it will be an interesting array of drivers competing in Saturday’s Pennzoil 150.

Handicapping Strategy

Due to the fact there are so many well known drivers participating on Saturday, sportsbooks are listing a vast array of H2H match-ups that should benefit sharp bettors. Unfortunately, betting odds on the winner (futures) do not appear to retain the value that we desire. While we will obviously pick a couple of potential winners, I think H2H match-ups will be the golden ticket on Saturday if things go according to plan. As a result, there will not be any conservative approach this week. If we can find the sharpness to exploit match-ups, we will attack aggressively with perhaps larger unit wagers!

Practice and Qualifying Observations

Despite the abundance of Cup Series talent, AJ Allmendinger was the man that won the pole for the Pennzoil 150 with a lap of 97.834mph. As mentioned earlier, Allmendinger won the inaugural Cup Series race on the Grand Prix circuit last year and he has proven yet again that he remains among the most talented road course talents in the sport. Behind Allmendinger, Ty Gibbs, Riley Herbst, Alex Bowman, and Sam Mayer secured the top starting spots. Needless to say, it was the Xfinity Series’ regulars that stole the spotlight in qualifying and that was on par with what we witnessed in the hour long practice session before qualifying as well.

It is worth noting that qualifying Friday afternoon was an impound qualifying session meaning teams cannot make any overnight changes. As a result, qualifying results are a product of race setups. Prior to qualifying, AJ Allmendinger also posted the fastest lap in practice with a speed of 95.772mph. I watched raw lap times pretty closely and I thought Allmendinger was in a league of his own on the stopwatch. While I am sure the competition will pick up on Saturday, Allmendinger was bad fast in all of Friday’s sessions.

Behind the Dinger, Ty Gibbs, Chase Briscoe, and Sam Mayer appeared to be among the other top drivers in terms of speed. Gibbs and Briscoe both have established road course pedigrees. In fact, Briscoe won the inaugural Xfinity Series’ race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course back in 2020. Meanwhile, Sam Mayer was among the bigger surprises. Mayer does not have a lot of road course experience aside from the Xfinity Series and has struggled in a lot of the road course races. However, Mayer also continues to show improvement on the road courses and this is the fastest the #1 team has unloaded at a road course venue with Mayer behind the wheel. Therefore, Mayer may be a driver to keep on radars for potential betting purposes.

If you are wondering about some of the other popular names, Ross Chastain looked decent beyond the equipment concerns. Alex Bowman looked relatively average compared to the fast guys mentioned above. Meanwhile, drivers like the Dillon brothers and Bubba Wallace were towards the bottom of the speed charts. In fact, I would probably call out that Wallace was consistently making mistakes that really impacted his consistency. Among the series’ regulars, guys like Preston Pardus and Sheldon Creed looked competitive which should not be surprising considering their road course skills. Meanwhile, guys like Justin Allgaier, Daniel Hemric, and Austin Hill were trending in the wrong direction based on pre-activity betting odds.

Betting Targets

Based on the speed Allmendinger showed in practice, I think it would be foolish to leave him off betting lineups on Saturday. Obviously there is not a ton of value on Allmendinger and surely things will be more competitive in the race; still it’s rare to see a driver that is dominant in practice at a road course. Ty Gibbs and Chase Briscoe appear to be the best pivot options against Allmendinger as the overall favorite. I don’t have a strong lean between who could potentially be the better of the two pivot options but I have to lean in favor of Gibbs despite Briscoe’s prior victory. Gibbs has the better equipment and honestly is probably the better driver.

I am really eager to take aim at a few H2H targets that could also yield value in the form of prop bets as well. Sheldon Creed remains one of my favorite road course talents despite his luck at the road course venues this season. Creed is an extremely talented road course talent but has undeniably had a more difficult season than most would expect. With that being said, Creed is still very capable of putting together a quality performance and I believe he remains undervalued based on current odds. Additional betting targets include guys like Sam Mayer and Preston Pardus who are drivers that I have pegged as sharp options. Like Creed, Mayer offers value in all formats and as I stated earlier; this is the best Mayer has looked from the onset of a road course weekend all season. Meanwhile, Pardus is a part-time driver that is basically unknown but his road course skill set is strong. Despite the bottom-tier equipment, Pardus has posted finishes of 14th at Circuit of the Americas and 11th at Road America in his prior two starts this season.

Draftkings Pennzoil 150 Optimal Lineup

2022 Pennzoil 150 Race Picks

*Final*

AJ Allmendinger +350 (.5 unit)
Ty Gibbs +400 (.5 unit)
Austin Hill +1200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

AJ Allmendinger -130 over Alex Bowman (3 units)
Landon Cassill -150 over Austin Dillon (3 units)
Austin Hill -115 over Noah Gragson (2 units)
Riley Herbst +800 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1200 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)