2022 O’Reilly Auto Parts 150 Race Picks

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 9th, 2022. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course
TV: FS1

The Camping World Truck Series will kick off the racing weekend with the running of the O’Reilly Auto Parts 150 in the opening act of a NASCAR double header on Saturday. While both Xfinity and Cup Series’ teams will be preparing for superspeedway racing at Atlanta, the Truck Series will be gearing up for their 3rd road course test of the season at the 13-turn venue located in Lexington, Ohio. While racing fans may be familiar with Mid-Ohio from prior Xfinity Series’ races, this will be the first race in the history of the Truck Series at this challenging 2.258 mile facility that has produced excellent racing over the years.

Earlier today the Camping World Truck Series got a full hour of practice at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course as drivers tried their best to get accustomed to this new venue. At the end of practice, Zane Smith led all drivers with the fastest lap at 92.789mph. Smith has been the most dominant road course talent this season among the Truck Series regulars so it should not be surprising to see his name at the top of the charts. Other names in the top 5, in terms of single lap speed, included the likes of Ben Rhodes, Parker Kligerman, Grant Enfinger, and Tyler Ankrum.

In terms of overall observations, I believe John Hunter Nemechek, Derek Kraus, and Grant Enfinger were among the names that exceeded expectations in practice. Nemechek has not been a dominant road course talent throughout his career but he consistently manages to produce quality finishes. Kraus actually led the overall average category. Kraus has routinely been hit or miss at the road courses so perhaps the practice speed means the #19 team can put together a solid afternoon. For Grant Enfinger, I thought the #23 truck was really impressive, especially considering Enfinger is not known as a road course driver. However, the #23 truck was really solid in all practice metrics.

Ultimately, I am not going to hang my hat on practice observations from this morning’s sessions. While I believe they produce some value in terms of handicapping, we must remember that this morning’s sessions was the first laps at Mid-Ohio for the vast majority of the field. Therefore, expect things to mature as we get closer to race time and I think they will tilt the value back to the stronger road course talents. From a betting standpoint, I have not been overly impressed with betting odds this week therefore Saturday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 150 betting selections will likely feature a relatively conservative approach unless we see a significant change in odds.

Road Course Quick Notes

• Zane Smith holds the highest average driver rating (115.4) from the prior two road course events this season which includes his victory at Circuit of the Americas
• Chandler Smith has finished 5th in both road course races this season
• Tyler Ankrum has finished inside the top 10 in both road course races this season and has recorded 3 straight top 10 finishes in recent weeks
• Justin Marks will be competing for Niece Motorsports this week in his first CWTS start since 2018. Marks only NASCAR victory came at Mid-Ohio in the Xfinity Series back in 2016
• Despite being known for his road course talent, Kaz Grala has only managed two finishes of 14th in both prior road course events this season

*Rain caused a shakeup in qualifying today as multiple trucks struggled with the extreme wet conditions. Saturday’s forecast is expected to be clear which means qualifying results can be somewhat considered an anomaly!

Betting Targets and Fades

As I mentioned above, I think a conservative strategy will be best towards futures bets, aimed at the race winner, strictly based on current odds. While Zane Smith is a deserving favorite, I really like John Hunter Nemechek as a slight pivot option among the favorites. Nemechek is an underrated road course talent and he looked really good in Friday’s practice. With Zane struggling a bit more in the wet conditions during qualifying, John Hunter has the best chance to capitalize on the early starting position from the 2nd row.

Aside from the race winners, there are several drivers that I like in H2H and/or fantasy formats. I believe Tyler Ankrum and Grant Enfinger are some excellent sharp plays that will yield value in all match-ups. Enfinger is not known as a road course driver nor should he be based on his history. However, Enfinger’s lap times were among the elite few drivers in practice by a solid margin. Based around other middle-range drivers, Enfinger offers serious upside. Likewise, the same can be said for Tyler Ankrum in the lower-tier range of options. Ankrum has not had the season that I expected with the #16 truck but has been very solid at the road course venues. As a bottom-tier match-up driver, he will beat almost all drivers in his current odds range.

If you are looking for drivers to potentially fade in match-ups, let me suggest the likes of Carson Hocevar and Justin Marks. Hocevar would be considered a sharp fade as he is among the favorite for Saturday’s O’Reilly’s Auto Parts 150. However, Hocevar did not have the speed to validate his “favorite” status and I think he is very overvalued based on his qualifying result in the rain. Meanwhile, Justin Marks is looking to make magic happen in a rare start at the site of his only NASCAR victory. However, Marks was well off the pace in practice and honestly not even close to competitive on the speed charts. With that being said, Marks is still listed pretty far up the odds ladder and that can be used for fade opportunities on Saturday.

Draftkings O’Reilly Auto Parts 150 Optimal Lineup

2022 O’Reilly Auto Parts 150 Race Picks

*Final*

John Hunter Nemechek +600 (1 unit)
Grant Enfinger +2000 (.5 unit)
Chandler Smith +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Grant Enfinger -110 over Justin Marks (4 units)
John Hunter Nemechek -140 over Ben Rhodes (2 units)